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Finansal Krizler ve Etkileri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 43 Sayı: 1, 64 - 83, 23.10.2024

Öz

Finansal krizler farklı biçim ve boyutlarda gelir ve kalıcı etkilere sahip olurlar. Finansal piyasaların birbirleriyle bağlantısı arttıkça bir ülkedeki krizin başka bir ülkeye sirayeti olasılığı da arttığından, önceden alınan önlemler kadar, yaklaşan krizin tanım, tespit ve muhtemel etkilerinin bilinmesi de önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, finansal krizler, kur, ani duruş, borç ve bankacılık başlıkları altında tanımlanmış, tespit, sıklık ve dağılımları ele alınmış ve böylelikle yeni krizlerin yaşanmaması için alınması gereken tedbirlerin anlaşılmasına katkı sağlanması amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla, finansal kriz dönemlerinde varlık ve kredi piyasalarındaki gelişmeleri inceleyen kuramsal ve pratik çalışmalar gözden geçirilmiştir. Finansal krizler ile ilgili literatürün haritası çıkarılarak, yeni araştırmalara zemin hazırlamak istenmiştir. Tartışmalarla gösterilmiştir ki finansal krizlere yatırımcıların rasyonel olmayan davranışlarından çok, politika yapıcıların miyop ve hatalı kararları ya da düzenleme ve denetim eksikliği gibi unsurlar sebep olmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Abbas, S.A., Belhocine, M., El Ganainy, A. & Horton, M. (2011). Historical Patterns and Dynamics of Public Debt: Evidence from a New Database, IMF Economic Review, 59(4), s. 717–742.
  • Abiad, A., Balakrishnan, R., Brooks, P.K. Leigh, D. & Tytell, I. (2013). What’s the Damage? Medium-Term Output Dynamics after Financial Crises, (Ed: Claessens, S. Kose, M. A. Laeven, L. & Valencia, F.) Financial crises: causes, consequences, and policy responses, s.277-307, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
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  • Allen, F. & Gale, D. (2007). Understanding Financial Crises, Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press.
  • Aydın, S. (2011), Finansal Piyasalarda Gürültücüler, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 26(304), s.9-36.
  • Aydın, S. & Tunç, C. (2024). A farewell to Greenspan-Guidotti rule: has the role of short-term debt as a reserve adequacy indicator disappeared? Applied Economics Letters, doi: 10.1080/13504851.2024.2322590
  • Barberis, N. & Thaler, R. (2003). A Survey of Behavioral Finance, (Ed: Constantinides, G. M., Harris, M. ve Stulz, R.) Handbook of the Economics of Finance, s. 1051–121 Amsterdam: Elsevier.
  • Barth, J., Caprio, G. & Levine, R. (2006). Rethinking Bank Regulation: Till Angels Govern, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Barth, J., Caprio, G. & Levine, R. (2012). Guardians of Finance: Making Regulators Work for Us, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.
  • Blanchard, O.J. & Watson, M.W. (1982). Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets, (Ed: Wachtel, P.) Crises in the Economic and Financial Structure, s. 295-316. Lexington, MA: D.C. Heathand Company.
  • Blanco, H. & Garber, P.M. (1986). Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso, Journal of Political Economy, 94(1), s.148–166.
  • Borensztein, E. & Panizza, U. (2009). The Costs of Sovereign Default, IMF Staff Papers, 56(4), s.683–741.
  • Branch, W. & Evans, G.W. (2011). Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 3(3), s.159–191.
  • Brunnermeier, M. (2001). Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis and Herding, Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press.
  • Bulow, J. & Rogoff, K. (1989). A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt, Journal of Political Economy, 97(1), s.155–178.
  • Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M. & Rebelo, S. (2001). On the Fiscal Implications of Twin Crises, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Working Paper, No. 01-02.
  • Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M. & Rebelo, S. (2004). Government Guarantees and Self-Fulfilling Speculative Attacks, Journal of Economic Theory, 119, s.31–63.
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  • Calvo, G.A. (2000). Betting against the State: Socially Costly Financial Engineering, Journal of International Economics, 51(1), s.5–19.
  • Calvo, G.A., Izquierdo, A. & Mejía, L.-F. (2004). On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects, NBER Working Papers, 10520.
  • Calvo, G.A., Izquierdo, A. & Mejía, L.-F. (2008). Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects and Financial Integration, NBER Working Papers, 14026.
  • Calvo, G.A., Izquierdo, A. & Talvi, E. (2006). Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises, NBER Working Papers, 12101.
  • Calvo, G.A. & Reinhart, C. (2000). When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options, MPRA Paper, 6982.
  • Cardarelli, R., Elekdag, S. & Kose, M.A. (2010). Capital Inflows: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Responses, Economic Systems, 34(4), s.333–56.
  • Chang, R. & Velasco, A. (2000). Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy, (Ed: Bernanke, B.S. ve Rotemberg, J.J.) NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, s.11–78. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.
  • Chen, J., Hong, H. & Stein, J.C. (2002). Breadth of Ownership and Stock Returns, Journal of Financial Economics, 66(2–3), s.171–205.
  • Cihak, M., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Soledad Martínez Pería, M. & Mohseni-Cheraghlou, A. (2012). Bank Regulation and Supervision around the World: A Crisis Update, World Bank Policy and Research Working Paper, 6286.
  • Claessens, S., Dell’Ariccia, G., Igan, D. & Laeven, L. (2010). Cross-Country Experience and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis, Economic Policy, 25(April), s.267–93.
  • Claessens, S., & Köse, M.A., (2014). Financial Crises: Explanations, Types, and Implications, (Ed: Claessens, S., Kose, M. A., Laeven, L. ve Valencia, F.) Financial crises: causes, consequences, and policy responses, s.3-59, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
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A Review of Financial Crises and Their Effects

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 43 Sayı: 1, 64 - 83, 23.10.2024

Öz

Financial crises come in different shapes and sizes and have lasting effects. As the interconnectedness of financial markets increases, the possibility of the spread of a crisis in one country to another one also increases. So, knowing the definition, detection and possible effects of an approaching crisis is as important as the measures taken beforehand. In this study, financial crises are defined under the headings of exchange rate, sudden stop, debt and banking. Their detection, frequency and distribution are discussed, and thus it is aimed to contribute to the understanding of the measures that can be taken to avoid new crises. For this purpose, theoretical and practical studies examining developments in asset and credit markets during financial crisis periods are reviewed. By mapping the literature on financial crises, it was desired to lay the groundwork for new researches. It has been shown by discussions that rather than the irrational behaviour of investors, financial crises are caused by factors such as myopic and erroneous decisions of policy makers, or lack of regulation and supervision.

Kaynakça

  • Abbas, S.A., Belhocine, M., El Ganainy, A. & Horton, M. (2011). Historical Patterns and Dynamics of Public Debt: Evidence from a New Database, IMF Economic Review, 59(4), s. 717–742.
  • Abiad, A., Balakrishnan, R., Brooks, P.K. Leigh, D. & Tytell, I. (2013). What’s the Damage? Medium-Term Output Dynamics after Financial Crises, (Ed: Claessens, S. Kose, M. A. Laeven, L. & Valencia, F.) Financial crises: causes, consequences, and policy responses, s.277-307, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
  • Aguiar, M. & Gopinath, G. (2006). Defaultable Debt, Interest Rates and the Current Account, Journal of International Economics, 69(1), s.64–83.
  • Allen, F. & Gale, D. (2007). Understanding Financial Crises, Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press.
  • Aydın, S. (2011), Finansal Piyasalarda Gürültücüler, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 26(304), s.9-36.
  • Aydın, S. & Tunç, C. (2024). A farewell to Greenspan-Guidotti rule: has the role of short-term debt as a reserve adequacy indicator disappeared? Applied Economics Letters, doi: 10.1080/13504851.2024.2322590
  • Barberis, N. & Thaler, R. (2003). A Survey of Behavioral Finance, (Ed: Constantinides, G. M., Harris, M. ve Stulz, R.) Handbook of the Economics of Finance, s. 1051–121 Amsterdam: Elsevier.
  • Barth, J., Caprio, G. & Levine, R. (2006). Rethinking Bank Regulation: Till Angels Govern, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Barth, J., Caprio, G. & Levine, R. (2012). Guardians of Finance: Making Regulators Work for Us, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.
  • Blanchard, O.J. & Watson, M.W. (1982). Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets, (Ed: Wachtel, P.) Crises in the Economic and Financial Structure, s. 295-316. Lexington, MA: D.C. Heathand Company.
  • Blanco, H. & Garber, P.M. (1986). Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso, Journal of Political Economy, 94(1), s.148–166.
  • Borensztein, E. & Panizza, U. (2009). The Costs of Sovereign Default, IMF Staff Papers, 56(4), s.683–741.
  • Branch, W. & Evans, G.W. (2011). Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 3(3), s.159–191.
  • Brunnermeier, M. (2001). Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis and Herding, Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press.
  • Bulow, J. & Rogoff, K. (1989). A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt, Journal of Political Economy, 97(1), s.155–178.
  • Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M. & Rebelo, S. (2001). On the Fiscal Implications of Twin Crises, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Working Paper, No. 01-02.
  • Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M. & Rebelo, S. (2004). Government Guarantees and Self-Fulfilling Speculative Attacks, Journal of Economic Theory, 119, s.31–63.
  • Calomiris, C.W. (1991). The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation, Ed: Hubbard, R.G. Financial Markets and Financial Crises, Cambridge, Massachusetts: NBER Books, s.107–173.
  • Calvo, G.A. (2000). Betting against the State: Socially Costly Financial Engineering, Journal of International Economics, 51(1), s.5–19.
  • Calvo, G.A., Izquierdo, A. & Mejía, L.-F. (2004). On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects, NBER Working Papers, 10520.
  • Calvo, G.A., Izquierdo, A. & Mejía, L.-F. (2008). Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects and Financial Integration, NBER Working Papers, 14026.
  • Calvo, G.A., Izquierdo, A. & Talvi, E. (2006). Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises, NBER Working Papers, 12101.
  • Calvo, G.A. & Reinhart, C. (2000). When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options, MPRA Paper, 6982.
  • Cardarelli, R., Elekdag, S. & Kose, M.A. (2010). Capital Inflows: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Responses, Economic Systems, 34(4), s.333–56.
  • Chang, R. & Velasco, A. (2000). Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy, (Ed: Bernanke, B.S. ve Rotemberg, J.J.) NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, s.11–78. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.
  • Chen, J., Hong, H. & Stein, J.C. (2002). Breadth of Ownership and Stock Returns, Journal of Financial Economics, 66(2–3), s.171–205.
  • Cihak, M., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Soledad Martínez Pería, M. & Mohseni-Cheraghlou, A. (2012). Bank Regulation and Supervision around the World: A Crisis Update, World Bank Policy and Research Working Paper, 6286.
  • Claessens, S., Dell’Ariccia, G., Igan, D. & Laeven, L. (2010). Cross-Country Experience and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis, Economic Policy, 25(April), s.267–93.
  • Claessens, S., & Köse, M.A., (2014). Financial Crises: Explanations, Types, and Implications, (Ed: Claessens, S., Kose, M. A., Laeven, L. ve Valencia, F.) Financial crises: causes, consequences, and policy responses, s.3-59, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
  • Claessens, S., Kose, M.A. & Terrones, M.E. (2009). What Happens during Recessions, Crunches and Busts? Economic Policy, 60, s.653–700.
  • Claessens, S., Kose, M.A. & Terrones, M.E. (2010). Financial Cycles: What? How? When? NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics 2010.
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  • Gupta, P., Mishra, D. & Sahay, R. (2007). Behaviour of Output during Currency Crises, Journal of International Economics, 72(2), s.428–50.
  • Güneri, Ö.İ. & Durmuş, B. (2019). Sansürlü ve Sansürsüz Poission Regresyon Modellerinin Karşılaştırılması, Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 9(2), s.359-76.
  • Gürkaynak, R.S. (2008). Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock, Journal of Economic Surveys, 22(1), s.166–186.
  • Hallwood, C.P. & MacDonald, R. (2000), International Money and Finance, Massachusetts: Blackwell.
  • Harrison, J.M. & Kreps, D.M. (1978). Speculative Investor Behaviour in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 92(2), s.323–336.
  • Hirata, H., Kose, M.A., Otrok, C. & Terrones, M.E. (2012). Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants, (Ed: Francesco G. ve West K.) NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Hong, H., Scheinkman, J. & Xiong, W. (2008). Advisors and Asset Prices: A Model of the Origins of Bubbles, Journal of Financial Economics, 89(2), s.268–287.
  • Hutchison, M.M. & Noy, I. (2006). Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets, Journal of Development Economics, 79, s.225–48.
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF), (2005). Information Note on Modifications to the Fund’s Debt Sustainability Assessment Framework for Market Access Countries, Washington.
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF), (2011). Modernizing the Framework for Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis, Policy Paper, Washington.
  • Jeanne, O. (2003), Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow in Foreign Currency? IMF Working Paper, 03/177.
  • Jorda, O., Schularick, M. & Taylor, A.M. (2011). Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons, IMF Economic Review, 59(2), s.340–378.
  • Kaminsky, G., Lizondo, S. & Reinhart, C. (1998). Leading Indicators of Currency Crisis, IMF Staff Papers, 45(1), s.1–48.
  • Kaminsky, G. & Reinhart, C. (1999). The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems, American Economic Review, 89(3), s.473–500.
  • Kannan, P., Scott, A. & Terrones M.E., (2013). From Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong? (Ed: Claessens, S. Kose, M. A. Laeven, L. & Valencia, F.) Financial crises: causes, consequences, and policy responses, s.239-274, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
  • Klein, M.W. & Marion, N.P. (1997). Explaining the Duration of Exchange-Rate Pegs, Journal of Development Economics, 54(2), s.387-404.
  • Kletzer, K.M. & Wright, B.D. (2000). Sovereign Debt as Intertemporal Barter, American Economic Review, 90(3), s.621–639.
  • Klingebiel, D., Kroszner, R. & Laeven, L. (2007). Banking Crises, Financial Dependence and Growth, Journal of Financial Economics, 84(1), s.187–228.
  • Korinek, A. (2011). Foreign Currency Debt, Risk Premia and Macroeconomic Volatility, European Economic Review, 55(3). s.371–85.
  • Krugman, P. (1999). Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises, International Tax and Public Finance, 6(4), s.459–472.
  • Kumar, M., Moorthy, U. & Perraudin, W. (2003). Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes, Journal of Empirical Finance, 10, s.427–454.
  • Laeven, L. & Valencia, F. (2014). Systemic Banking Crises, (Ed: Claessens, S. Kose, M. A. Laeven, L. & Valencia, F.) Financial crises: causes, consequences, and policy responses, s.61-137, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
  • Lansing, K.J., (2008), Speculative Growth and Overreaction to Technology Shocks, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper, 08.
  • Levy-Yeyati, E.L. & Panizza, U. (2011). The Elusive Costs of Sovereign Defaults, Journal of Development Economics, 94(1), s.95–105.
  • Lindgren, C.J., Garcia, G. & Saal, M. (1996). Bank Soundness and Macroeconomic Policy, Washington: IMF.
  • Lo, A.W. & MacKinlay, A.C. (2001). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street, New Jersey: Princeton.
  • Maddaloni, A. & Peydró, J.L. (2011). Bank Risk-Taking, Securitization, Supervision and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area and the U.S. Lending Standards, The Review of Financial Studies, 24(6), s.2121–2165.
  • Magud, N.E., Reinhart, C.M. & Vesperoni, E.R. (2012). Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and Credit Booms, IMF Working Paper, 12/41.
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  • McKinnon, R. & Pill, H. (1998). International Overborrowing: A Decomposition of Credit and Currency Risks, World Development, 26(7), s.1267–1282.
  • Mendoza, E.G., (2010). Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage, American Economic Review, 100(5), s.1941–66.
  • Mendoza, E.G. & Terrones, M. (2008). An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence from Macro Aggregates and Micro Data, NBER Working Paper, 14049.
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  • Panizza, U., Sturzenegger, F. & Zettelmeyer, J. (2009). The Economics and Law of Sovereign Debt and Default, Journal of Economic Literature, 47(3), s.651–98.
  • Papell, D.H. & Prudan, R. (2012). The Statistical Behaviour of GDP after Financial Crises and Severe Recessions, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(3), s.1-29.
  • Pastor, L. & Veronesi, P. (2006). Was There a Nasdaq Bubble in the Late 1990s? Journal of Financial Economics, 81(1), s. 61–100.
  • Radelet, S. & Sachs, J. (1998). The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1(1), s.1–74.
  • Rajan, R.G. (2005). Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier? NBER Working Paper, 11728.
  • Ranciere, R. & Tornell, A. (2011). Financial Black-Holes: The Interaction of Financial Regulation and Bailout Guarantees, CEPR Discussion Paper, 8248.
  • Reinhart, C.M. ve Rogoff, K.S. (2009a). The Aftermath of Financial Crises, American Economic Review, 99, s.466–72.
  • Reinhart, C.M. & Rogoff, K.S. (2009b). This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  • Rose, A.K. & Spiegel, M.M. (2011). Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning, European Economic Review, 55(3), s.309–324.
  • Scheinkman, J.A. ve Xiong, W. (2003). Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles, Journal of Political Economy, 111(6), s.1183–1219.
  • Schwert, G.W. (2003). Anomalies and Market Efficiency, (Ed: Constantinides, G.M., Harris, M. & Stulz, R.M. Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Amsterdam: Elsevier B.V., (1), s. 939–974.
  • Shin, H.S. (2009). Reflections on Northern Rock: The Bank Run That Heralded the Global Financial Crisis, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23(1), s.101–119.
  • Shleifer, A. (2000). Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioural Finance, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press).
  • Stiglitz, J. & Weiss, A. (1983). Alternative Approaches to Analysing Markets with Asymmetric Information: Reply [The Theory of ‘Screening,’ Education, and the Distribution of Income],” American Economic Review, 73(1), s.246–249.
  • Sturzenegger, F. & Zettelmeyer, J. (2007). Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and London: MIT Press.
  • Wang, P. & Wen, Y. (2012). Speculative Bubbles and Financial Crises, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4(3), s.184–221.
Toplam 106 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Uluslararası Finans
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Suat Aydın 0000-0002-3408-1537

Yayımlanma Tarihi 23 Ekim 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 43 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Aydın, S. (2024). Finansal Krizler ve Etkileri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 43(1), 64-83.
AMA Aydın S. Finansal Krizler ve Etkileri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. BUJES. Ekim 2024;43(1):64-83.
Chicago Aydın, Suat. “Finansal Krizler Ve Etkileri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme”. Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 43, sy. 1 (Ekim 2024): 64-83.
EndNote Aydın S (01 Ekim 2024) Finansal Krizler ve Etkileri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 43 1 64–83.
IEEE S. Aydın, “Finansal Krizler ve Etkileri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme”, BUJES, c. 43, sy. 1, ss. 64–83, 2024.
ISNAD Aydın, Suat. “Finansal Krizler Ve Etkileri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme”. Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 43/1 (Ekim 2024), 64-83.
JAMA Aydın S. Finansal Krizler ve Etkileri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. BUJES. 2024;43:64–83.
MLA Aydın, Suat. “Finansal Krizler Ve Etkileri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme”. Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, c. 43, sy. 1, 2024, ss. 64-83.
Vancouver Aydın S. Finansal Krizler ve Etkileri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. BUJES. 2024;43(1):64-83.

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