ANALYSING THE EFFECT OF HOUSEHOLD CREDIT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TÜRKİYE

Öz

Credit restrictions were imposed in many countries in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in order to mitigate the effects of the crisis, but recently, especially in developing countries, there has been an increase in household credit due to developments facilitating access to credit and policy incentives. In this period, household credit has come to the forefront and its economic effects have brought along debates. Therefore, this study aims to empirically evaluate the effects of household credit on economic growth in Turkey. In the empirical analysis, long and short-run findings are based on linear and non-linear ARDL models. Using the period range 2008Q3-2023Q2, the study finds that household credit has a positive effect on economic growth in Turkey, but this effect is positive and larger in periods of decreasing household credit (low volatility). The findings suggest that household credit growth has a positive impact on economic growth in Turkey, but credit growth should be controlled.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Household Credit
• Economic Growth
• Türkiye
• ARDL Method

TÜRKİYE’DE HANEHALKI KREDİLERİNİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİNİN ANALİZİ

Öz

Küresel finans krizi sonrası krizin etkilerini azaltmak amacıyla birçok ülkede kredi kısıtlamaları uygulanmış; ancak son dönemde özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde krediye erişimi kolaylaştıran gelişmeler ve politika teşvikleri ile hanehalkı kredilerinde artışlar yaşanmıştır. Bu dönemde hanehalkı kredilerinin ön plana çıkması ile ekonomik etkileri de tartışmaları beraberinde getirmiştir. Bu nedenle çalışma Türkiye’de hanehalkı kredilerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini ampirik olarak değerlendirmeyi amaçlamıştır. Ampirik analizde uzun ve kısa dönem bulgular doğrusal ve doğrusal olmayan ARDL modellerine dayanmaktadır. 2008Q3-2023Q2 dönem aralığı kullanılan çalışmada, Türkiye'de hanehalkı kredilerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğu; ancak hanehalkı kredilerinin azaldığı (düşük oynaklık) dönemlerde bu etkinin pozitif ve daha büyük olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bulgular Türkiye’de hanehalkı kredi büyümesinin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu etkisinin olduğunu; ancak kredi büyümesinin kontrollü olması gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hanehalkı Kredileri
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Türkiye
• ARDL Yöntemi

Kaynakça

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