MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLERİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN AMPİRİK UYGULAMA

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisindeki seçili makroekonomik değişkenlerden, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, reel döviz kuru ile kamu harcamalarının büyüme üzerindeki önemi, 2010Q1-2023Q2 dönemlerini kapsayacak şekilde, çeyreklik veri kullanılarak değişkenler arasındaki ilişki çeşitli yöntemler ile araştırılmaktadır. Çalışma ile hedeflenen özellikle seçili makroekonomik değişkenlerin, sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin hangi boyutta olduğu ve bu etkinin dönemler arasında nasıl şekillendiğini ortaya çıkarmaktır. Analizde kullanılan veriler federal rezerv ekonomik veri (FRED) bankasından elde edilmektedir. Çalışmada öncelikle serilerin durağanlık özelliklerinin belirlenmesinde ADF ile yapısal değişim içeren Zivot-Andrews testleri, aralarındaki uzun dönemli ilişkide Gregory-Hansen (1996) eş bütünleşme analizi ile Tamamen Değiştirilmiş En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi (FMOLS), ardından seriler arasındaki nedenselliğin yönü ise Toda-Yamamoto testi ile analiz edilmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, değişkenlerin yapısal kırılma ile durağan hale geldiği ve eşbütünleşme analizi ile değişkenlerin uzun dönemde birbirlerini etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. Ayrıca GDP(gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla) ile FDI(doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar) ve RDK(reel döviz kuru) değişkenleri aralarında istatistiksel açıdan anlamlı bir nedenselliğin varlığı, KAMUHRC(kamu harcamaları) değişkeni ile aralarında herhangi bir nedenselliğin olmadığı belirlenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Makroekonomi
• Eşbütünleşme
• Nedensellik

THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL APPLICATION FOR TÜRKİYE

Öz

This study evaluates the effects of macroeconomic variables in the Turkish economy, such as foreign direct investments, real exchange rate and public expenditures, on economic growth, covering the periods of 2010Q1-2023Q2, using quarterly data to test the relationship between the variables with various methods. The data used in the analysis are obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank Economic data (FRED. In the study, ADF unit root test and Zivot-Andrews (1992) unit root test, which allows structural breaks, were used to determine the stationarity properties of the series, Gregory-Hansen (1996) co-integration analysis and the Fully Modified Least Squares Method (FMOLS) were used to determine the long-term relationship between them. The direction of causality between variables is analysed with the Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test. According to the results, the variables became stationary with a structural break and there is a long-term relationship between the series with the cointegration test. In addition, there is a statistically significant causal relationship between GDP (gross domestic product) FDI (direct foreign investments) and RDK (real exchange rate), but there is no statistically significant causal relationship between them and the KAMUHRC (public expenditures).

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Growth
• Macroecenomic
• Cointegration
• Causality

Kaynakça

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