TÜRKİYE’DE TİCARİ VE FİNANSAL AÇIKLIK İLE POLİTİK İSTİKRARIN HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASASI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ

Öz

Bu çalışma, ticari açıklık, finansal açıklık ve politik istikrarın Türkiye’de hisse senedi piyasası üzerindeki uzun dönemli etkilerini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Küreselleşme sürecinin hız kazanmasıyla birlikte, ekonomilerin dışa açıklık düzeyi ve kurumsal yapıları finansal piyasaların performansını belirleyen temel unsurlar haline gelmiştir. Bu bağlamda, söz konusu değişkenlerin Borsa İstanbul (BIST100) üzerindeki etkilerinin analiz edilmesi hem akademik literatür hem de politika yapıcılar açısından önem arz etmektedir. Çalışmada, 1996–2023 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılmış ve analiz sürecinde zaman serisi yöntemlerinden yararlanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Uzun dönem katsayı tahmin sonuçlarına göre, ticari açıklık, finansal açıklık ve politik istikrar değişkenlerinin BIST100 üzerindeki etkilerinin pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu bulgular, Türkiye’de hisse senedi piyasasının uzun dönemli performansının ekonomik entegrasyon ve kurumsal yapı ile birlikte şekillendiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ticari Açıklık
• Finansal Açıklık
• Politik İstikrar
• Borsa İstanbul
• Zaman Serisi Analizi

THE EFFECTS OF TRADE OPENNESS, FINANCIAL OPENNESS, AND POLITICAL STABILITY ON THE STOCK MARKET IN TÜRKİYE

Öz

This study aims to examine the long-run effects of trade openness, financial openness, and political stability on the stock market in Türkiye. With the acceleration of the globalization process, the degree of economic openness and institutional structures have become key determinants of financial market performance. In this context, analyzing the effects of these variables on Borsa Istanbul (BIST100) is of considerable importance for both the academic literature and policymakers. The study employs annual data covering the period 1996–2023 and utilizes time series methods in the analysis. The findings indicate the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. According to the long-run coefficient estimates, trade openness, financial openness, and political stability have positive and statistically significant effects on the BIST100 index. These results suggest that the long-term performance of the stock market in Türkiye is shaped by economic integration and institutional structure.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Trade Openness
• Financial Openness
• Political Stability
• Borsa Istanbul
• Time Series Analysis

Kaynakça

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