TURİZM, ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ, CO2 EMİSYONLARI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİLERİNİN MODELLENMESİ

Öz

Bu çalışma, panel VAR modelini kullanarak, 1995-2014 döneminde turist girişleri açısından dünyanın en yüksek sıralamasına sahip 10 ülke için turizm, enerji tüketimi, ekonomik büyüme ve CO2 emisyonları arasındaki nedensel ilişkileri araştırmaktadır. Bulgular, turizm ile kirletici yayım arasında olduğu kadar enerji ile kirletici yayım arasında çift yönlü bir nedensel bağlantı olduğunu öne sürerken, sonuçlar ekonomik büyümeden karbondioksit emisyonuna doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik olduğunu göstermektedir. Aynı zamanda etki-tepki analizi, karbondioksit emisyonlarının ekonomik büyüme ve enerji tüketimindeki sarsıntılara verdiği tepkilerinin on yıllık dönemde pozitif göründüğünü, turizmdeki sarsıntılara tepkinin ise ilk dört yıl içinde olumsuz göründüğünü, ancak beşinci yılda dengeye döndüğünü göstermektedir. Bu sonuç sürdürülebilir turizmi destekleyen politika yapıcılar için büyük önem taşıyabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• CO2
• Panel VAR
• Enerji tüketimi
• turizm

MODELLING CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS AMONG TOURISM, ENERGY, CO2 EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Öz

This study investigates causal relationships among tourism, energy consumption, economic growth, and CO2 emissions for the 10 highest ranked countries in terms of tourist arrivals in the world for the period 1995-2014 using the panel VAR model. Our findings suggest a bidirectional causal link between tourism and pollutant emission as well as between energy and pollutant emission while the results show a unidirectional causality flowing from economic growth to carbon dioxide emission. The impulse response analysis also shows that the responses of carbon dioxide emissions to shocks in economic growth and energy consumption appear positive within ten years period while the response to shocks in tourism appear negative within the first four years but revert to the equilibirium in the fifth year providing some important insights for policy makers supporting sustainable tourism.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• CO2 emission
• Energy consumption
• Panel VAR
• Tourism

Kaynakça

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