DOLAYLI VE DOLAYSIZ VERGİ GELİRLERİ İLE DÖVİZ KURU OYNAKLIĞI ARASINDA BİR İLİŞKİ VAR MI? TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

oynaklığı arasında bir ilişki mevcut mudur? sorusuna ampirik kanıtlar aramaktır. Türkiye örneği için 2006:Q1-2019:Q4 döneminin dikkate alındığı ve reel efektif döviz kurunun standart sapmasının döviz kuru oynaklığı olarak kullanıldığı çalışmada, reel efektif döviz kuru oynaklığı ile hem dolaylı hemde dolaysız vergi gelirleri arasındaki nedensel ilişkiler Toda-Yamamoto yaklaşımı ile araştırılmıştır. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testinden elde edilen sonuçlar, hem dolaylı hem de dolaysız vergi gelirlerinden döviz kuru oynaklığına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını ortaya koymuştur. Tüm bu bulgular ışığında çalışma nedensellik yaklaşımı çerçevesinde, döviz kuru oynaklığı ile dolaylı ve dolaysız vergi gelirleri arasındaki ilişkiye dair önemli ampirik çıkarımlar ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Döviz kuru oynaklığı
• Dolaysız vergiler
• Dolaylı vergiler
• Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik
• Türkiye.

IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DIRECT AND INDIRECT TAX REVENUES WITH EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Öz

This study seeks empirical proof for this basic question: is there a relationship between direct-indirect tax revenues with exchange rate volatility? For the period of 2006:Q1-2019:Q4 in Turkey, the Toda-Yamamoto causality approach was performed to delve into the causal relationships between the exchange rate volatility determined by the moving standard deviation of the real effective exchange rate and both direct and indirect taxes. The results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test revealed the presence of a one-way causality relationship from direct taxes to exchange rate volatility and also a one-way causality relationship from indirect taxes to exchange rate volatility. Under a causality approach framework, the paper occurred a significant empirical inference for the relationship of exchange rate volatility with both direct and indirect taxes.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Exchange rate volatility
• Direct taxes
• Indirect taxes
• The Toda-Yamamoto causality
• Turkey.

Kaynakça

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