YENİ MERKANTİLİZMİN YÜKSELİŞİ VE ABD’NİN GÜMRÜK VERGİSİ POLİTİKALARI: KÜRESEL TİCARET PERSPEKTİFİ

Öz

21. yüzyılın ilk çeyreğinde küresel ekonomik düzende yaşanan dönüşüm, serbest ticaret anlayışının yerini giderek daha belirgin bir şekilde korumacı yaklaşımlara bırakmasına neden olmuş; bu durum, “yeni merkantilizm” olarak adlandırılan politika eğilimlerinin küresel ölçekte yeniden yükselişe geçmesine zemin hazırlamıştır. Yeni merkantilist stratejiler, tarihsel kökleri klasik merkantilizme dayanan, ancak çağdaş ekonomik ve jeopolitik koşullara uyarlanmış müdahaleci politika setlerinden oluşmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, çalışmada öncelikle yeni merkantilizmin kavramsal ve tarihsel temelleri ele alınmakta; ardından bu eğilimin günümüzdeki en somut örneklerinden biri olan Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin Donald Trump yönetimi döneminde izlediği gümrük vergisi politikaları detaylı biçimde incelenmektedir. ABD’nin 2017–2021 yılları arasındaki ilk başkanlık dönemi ve 2025 sonrası ikinci başkanlık döneminde uygulamaya koyduğu tarifeler, yalnızca ikili ticaret ilişkileri açısından değil, aynı zamanda çok taraflı ticaret sistemi, küresel değer zincirleri ve stratejik üretim ilişkileri açısından da derinlemesine dönüştürücü etkiler yaratmıştır. Çalışma, söz konusu politikaların küresel ticaret üzerindeki yapısal etkilerini ampirik literatür ışığında değerlendirmekte ve özellikle Türkiye açısından ortaya çıkabilecek ekonomik ve stratejik sonuçlara odaklanmaktadır. Bu çerçevede, Türkiye’nin dış ticaret stratejisinin yeni merkantilist dalga karşısında nasıl yeniden konumlandırılması gerektiğine ilişkin politika önerilerine de yer verilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yeni Merkantilizm
• Gümrük Tarifeleri
• Korumacılık
• Küresel Ticaret
• Trump Yönetimi

THE RISE OF NEW MERCANTILISM AND THE U.S. TARIFF POLICIES: A GLOBAL TRADE PERSPECTIVE

Öz

In the first quarter of the 21st century, the transformation in the global economic order has led to the gradual replacement of the free trade paradigm by increasingly pronounced protectionist approaches. This development has paved the way for the resurgence of policy tendencies referred to as “new mercantilism” globally. New mercantilist strategies consist of interventionist policy sets historically rooted in classical mercantilism but adapted to contemporary economic and geopolitical conditions. In this context, the study first discusses new mercantilism's conceptual and historical foundations. Then, it examines one of the most concrete contemporary manifestations of this trend, namely the tariff policies implemented by the United States during the presidency of Donald Trump. The tariffs introduced during Trump’s first term between 2017 and 2021, and again in his second term after 2025, have had deeply transformative effects on bilateral trade relations and the multilateral trade system, global value chains, and strategic production networks. This study evaluates the structural impacts of these policies on global trade in light of the empirical literature, with a particular focus on the potential economic and strategic consequences for Türkiye. Within this framework, the study also presents policy recommendations regarding how Türkiye’s foreign trade strategy should be repositioned in response to the emerging wave of new mercantilism.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• New Mercantilism
• Tariff Policies
• Protectionism
• Global Trade
• Trump Administration

Kaynakça

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