BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

Robotların İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: Seçilmiş Ülkeler Üzerine Ampirik İnceleme

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 68, 269 - 288, 01.01.2021

Öz

Robotların fiziksel donanımları ve ileri teknoloji içerikli yazılım teknolojileri bugün insan emeğinin gerçekleştirdiği işlerin büyük bir kısmını yerine getirmelerini mümkün kılmaktadır. Dolayısıyla robotların hızlı yayılımı dikkate alındığında, üretim süreçlerinde robotların emeği ikame etmesi ile oluşan teknolojik işsizlik endişelerinin hızlanmasına yol açmaktadır. Bu çalışma, robotların emek üzerindeki etkilerini istihdam açısından ele almaktadır. Çalışmada 2004-2016 yılları için robotlar ve istihdam arasındaki ilişki, seçili 47 ülke üzerinden Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Metodu’nun sistem yöntemi System-Generalized Methods of Moments, SYSGMM çerçevesinde incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, bir birim ilave robot kullanımının toplam istihdamda % 0.7 düşüşe neden olduğunu göstermektedir. Bulgular, yüksek gelirli ülkelerde robotların istihdama etkisinin daha olumsuz olduğunu, bir birim ilave robot kullanımının toplam istihdamda %3.1 düşüşe yol açtığını göstermektedir

Kaynakça

  • Acemoglu, D. ,Restrepo P. (2017). Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets. NBER Working Paper No. 23285.
  • Acemoglu, D. ,Restrepo P. (2018). Modeling Automation. AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pp. 48-53.
  • Acemoglu, D., Restrepo P. (2019). Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor. IZA Discussion Papers 12293, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Aghion P.& Jones B.& Jones C.(2017). Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth.Harvard University Press.
  • Autor,D. (2015). Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 29, Number 3, pp. 3-30.
  • Arntz, M. T. G. &Zierahn U. (2016). The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries: a comparative analysis. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No 189.
  • Berg, A. &Buffie, E. &Zanna, L. (2015). Should We Fear the Robot Revolution? : The Correct Answer is Yes. IMF Working Papers. 18. 1. 10.5089/9781484300831.001.
  • Bessen, J. E. (2017). Automation and Jobs: When Technology Boosts Employment. Boston University School of Law, Law and Economics Research Paper 17-09.
  • Braun, S.&Burda, M.& Schneider D.&Severgnini B.(2009). The Impact of ICT on employment: Technical Report, EuropeanCommission - Directorate General Information Society and Media, Unit C1 - Lisbon Strategy and i2010.
  • Brzeski, C. & Burk, I. (2015). The robots are coming: Consequences of automation for the German labor market.INGDiBa Economic Research.
  • Brynjolsson, E. & McAfee, A. (2014). The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies.First Edition. New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2014.
  • Carbonero, F. & Ernst, E. & Weber, E. (2018). Robots worldwide the impact of automation Papers 995008793402676. employment and trade. ILO Working
  • Chiacchio, F. & Petropoulos, G.& and Pichler, D. (2018). The Impact of Industrial Robots on EU Employment and Wages: A Local Labor Market Approach. Working Paper no. 02, Bruegel, Brussels.
  • Dauth, W. &Findeisen, S. &Südekum J.&Wößner, N. (2017). German Robots – The Impact of Industrial Robots on Workers. CEPR Discussion Paper DP12306.
  • DeCanio, Stephen J., (2016). Robots and Humans – Complements or Substitutes?. Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 280-291.
  • Feenstra, R.C.& Robert I. &Marcel P. T. (2015). The Next Generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182.
  • Frey, C.B.&Osborne, M. A. (2017). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerization?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 254-280.
  • Lee, N. (2018). Total Automation: The Possibility of Lights-Out Manufacturing in the Near Future.Missouri S&T’s Peer to Peer 2.
  • Lindenboim J.& Kennedy D.& Grana M. (2011). Share of Labour Compensation and Aggregate Demand – Discussions Towards A Growth Strategy. UNCTAD Discussion Papers 203, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  • Gordon, R. (2012). Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds.NBER Working Papers, No. 18315.
  • Graetz, G. & Michaels G. (2015). Robots at Work. CEPS Discussion Paper 1335, London: London School of Economics.
  • Graetz, G. (2019). Labor Demand in the Past, Present, and Future. European Economy Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Hanson, R. (2001). Economic growth given machine intelligence. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research.
  • IMF (2020). World Economic Outlook 2020: Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC.
  • ILO (2020). World Employment and Social Outlook 2020.International Labour Office,Geneva. International Organization for
  • Standardization [ISO], 2020. https://www.iso.org/obp/ui/#iso:std:iso:8373:ed-2:v1:en
  • Manyika, J. (2017). A Future That Works: Ai, Automation, Employment, and Productivity.McKinsey Global Institute.
  • OECD (2017a). Going Digital: Making the Transformation Work for Growth and Well-Being.OECD publishing, Paris.
  • Olsen, M. & Hemous, D. (2014). The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Horizontal Innovation and Income Inequality. 2014 Meeting Papers 162, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Pellegrino, G. & Piva, M. & Vivarelli, M. (2017). Are Robots Stealing Our Jobs?. Discussion Papers 10540, Institute of Labor Economics IZA (IZA).
  • Prettner, K. &Strulik, H. (2017). The lost race against the machine: Automation, education and inequality in an R&D-based growth model. Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences, No. 08- 2017.UniversitätHohenheim, FakultätWirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Stuttgart.
  • PwC (2017). Will robots really steal our jobs?: An international analysis of the potential long -term impact of automation.
  • Pajarinen, M. &Rouvinen, P. (2014). Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment. ETLA, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy vol. 22.
  • Roodman, D. (2009). A note on the theme of too many instruments. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71(1), 135–158.
  • Sachs J. & Kotlikoff, L. (2012).Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery. NBER Working Papers 18629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • UNCTAD (2017). Technological Change and The Future Of Jobs: Harnessing the Positive Potential of Technology for an Inclusive Future of Jobs.New York, 2020.
  • UNCTAD (2020).World Economic Situation and Prospects 2020. New York, 2020
  • IFR (2016). Industrial Robots: Definition and Classification. International Federation of Robotics (IFR), Frankfurt.
  • IFR (2020).World Robotic Report 2020. International Federation of Robotics (IFR), Frankfurt, Germany.
  • WB (2020).World Development Indicators (2020).The World Bank.
  • World Economic Forum (2019). The Global Competitiveness Report.World Economic Forum,Geneva.

Robotic Impact on Employment: Empiriıcal Investigation on Selected Countries

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 68, 269 - 288, 01.01.2021

Öz

Today, robots' physical hardware and high-tech software technologies make it possible for them to perform most of the work done by human labor today. Therefore, considering the rapid spread of robots, concerns about the technological unemployment arising from the robots replacing human labor in production processes have become an important line of research in labor economics. This study addresses the impact of robots on human labor in terms of employment. In the study, the relationship between robots and employment for the time period 2004-2016 is analyzed within the framework of the System Generalized Moments Method SYSGMM over 47 selected countries. The findings show that the use of one unit of additional robots causes a 0.11% decrease in total employment. Moreover the findings indicate that the impact of robots on employment is more negative in high-income countries; each robot increase causes 0.17% decrease in aggregate employment

Kaynakça

  • Acemoglu, D. ,Restrepo P. (2017). Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets. NBER Working Paper No. 23285.
  • Acemoglu, D. ,Restrepo P. (2018). Modeling Automation. AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pp. 48-53.
  • Acemoglu, D., Restrepo P. (2019). Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor. IZA Discussion Papers 12293, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Aghion P.& Jones B.& Jones C.(2017). Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth.Harvard University Press.
  • Autor,D. (2015). Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 29, Number 3, pp. 3-30.
  • Arntz, M. T. G. &Zierahn U. (2016). The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries: a comparative analysis. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No 189.
  • Berg, A. &Buffie, E. &Zanna, L. (2015). Should We Fear the Robot Revolution? : The Correct Answer is Yes. IMF Working Papers. 18. 1. 10.5089/9781484300831.001.
  • Bessen, J. E. (2017). Automation and Jobs: When Technology Boosts Employment. Boston University School of Law, Law and Economics Research Paper 17-09.
  • Braun, S.&Burda, M.& Schneider D.&Severgnini B.(2009). The Impact of ICT on employment: Technical Report, EuropeanCommission - Directorate General Information Society and Media, Unit C1 - Lisbon Strategy and i2010.
  • Brzeski, C. & Burk, I. (2015). The robots are coming: Consequences of automation for the German labor market.INGDiBa Economic Research.
  • Brynjolsson, E. & McAfee, A. (2014). The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies.First Edition. New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2014.
  • Carbonero, F. & Ernst, E. & Weber, E. (2018). Robots worldwide the impact of automation Papers 995008793402676. employment and trade. ILO Working
  • Chiacchio, F. & Petropoulos, G.& and Pichler, D. (2018). The Impact of Industrial Robots on EU Employment and Wages: A Local Labor Market Approach. Working Paper no. 02, Bruegel, Brussels.
  • Dauth, W. &Findeisen, S. &Südekum J.&Wößner, N. (2017). German Robots – The Impact of Industrial Robots on Workers. CEPR Discussion Paper DP12306.
  • DeCanio, Stephen J., (2016). Robots and Humans – Complements or Substitutes?. Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 280-291.
  • Feenstra, R.C.& Robert I. &Marcel P. T. (2015). The Next Generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182.
  • Frey, C.B.&Osborne, M. A. (2017). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerization?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 254-280.
  • Lee, N. (2018). Total Automation: The Possibility of Lights-Out Manufacturing in the Near Future.Missouri S&T’s Peer to Peer 2.
  • Lindenboim J.& Kennedy D.& Grana M. (2011). Share of Labour Compensation and Aggregate Demand – Discussions Towards A Growth Strategy. UNCTAD Discussion Papers 203, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  • Gordon, R. (2012). Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds.NBER Working Papers, No. 18315.
  • Graetz, G. & Michaels G. (2015). Robots at Work. CEPS Discussion Paper 1335, London: London School of Economics.
  • Graetz, G. (2019). Labor Demand in the Past, Present, and Future. European Economy Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Hanson, R. (2001). Economic growth given machine intelligence. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research.
  • IMF (2020). World Economic Outlook 2020: Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC.
  • ILO (2020). World Employment and Social Outlook 2020.International Labour Office,Geneva. International Organization for
  • Standardization [ISO], 2020. https://www.iso.org/obp/ui/#iso:std:iso:8373:ed-2:v1:en
  • Manyika, J. (2017). A Future That Works: Ai, Automation, Employment, and Productivity.McKinsey Global Institute.
  • OECD (2017a). Going Digital: Making the Transformation Work for Growth and Well-Being.OECD publishing, Paris.
  • Olsen, M. & Hemous, D. (2014). The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Horizontal Innovation and Income Inequality. 2014 Meeting Papers 162, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Pellegrino, G. & Piva, M. & Vivarelli, M. (2017). Are Robots Stealing Our Jobs?. Discussion Papers 10540, Institute of Labor Economics IZA (IZA).
  • Prettner, K. &Strulik, H. (2017). The lost race against the machine: Automation, education and inequality in an R&D-based growth model. Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences, No. 08- 2017.UniversitätHohenheim, FakultätWirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Stuttgart.
  • PwC (2017). Will robots really steal our jobs?: An international analysis of the potential long -term impact of automation.
  • Pajarinen, M. &Rouvinen, P. (2014). Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment. ETLA, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy vol. 22.
  • Roodman, D. (2009). A note on the theme of too many instruments. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71(1), 135–158.
  • Sachs J. & Kotlikoff, L. (2012).Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery. NBER Working Papers 18629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • UNCTAD (2017). Technological Change and The Future Of Jobs: Harnessing the Positive Potential of Technology for an Inclusive Future of Jobs.New York, 2020.
  • UNCTAD (2020).World Economic Situation and Prospects 2020. New York, 2020
  • IFR (2016). Industrial Robots: Definition and Classification. International Federation of Robotics (IFR), Frankfurt.
  • IFR (2020).World Robotic Report 2020. International Federation of Robotics (IFR), Frankfurt, Germany.
  • WB (2020).World Development Indicators (2020).The World Bank.
  • World Economic Forum (2019). The Global Competitiveness Report.World Economic Forum,Geneva.
Toplam 41 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Aslı Aydın Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Ocak 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 1 Sayı: 68

Kaynak Göster

APA Aydın, A. (2021). Robotların İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: Seçilmiş Ülkeler Üzerine Ampirik İnceleme. Çalışma Ve Toplum, 1(68), 269-288. https://doi.org/10.54752/ct.1155509
muratozverister@gmail.com
dergicalismavetoplum@gmail.com
www.calismatoplum.org