The Rise of Technology for the Future Labor Force: The Nexus between Technology and Unemployment in OECD Countries

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 75, 2775 - 2794, 24.10.2022

İbrahim Dağlı

https://doi.org/10.54752/ct.1191460

Öz

This paper studies the impact of technology on unemployment, focusing on OECD countries. Obviously, there is no consensus in the literature about the future impacts of technological breakthroughs on employment. The clear point is that the current skills will not match the occupations of the future and the companies will need many new skills. Technological advances will create millions of jobs but the other millions of jobs will disappear in this process. The purpose of this paper is to point out the ultimate impact of technology on unemployment at the macro level, which is quite insufficient quantitatively, related to the impact of technology on employment. In this paper, the nexus between technology and unemployment has been analyzed with S-GMM estimator in 33 OECD member countries for the years 2005-2018. According to panel data analysis, it is seen that all the control variables but GDP are statistically significant. The independent variable, IP5 patents representing technology is statistically highly significant and has a negative correlation with the dependent variable. The empirical results show that a 1% increase in technology reduces unemployment by 0.07%.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Unemployment, Technological Change, Automation, Innovation, Regional Studies

Geleceğin İşgücü İçin Teknolojinin Yükselişi: OECD Ülkelerinde Teknoloji ve İşsizlik Arasındaki Bağlantı

Öz

Bu makale, OECD ülkelerine odaklanarak teknolojinin işsizlik üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Literatürde teknolojik atılımların istihdam üzerindeki gelecekteki etkileri hakkında bir fikir birliği olmadığı açıktır. Açık olan nokta, mevcut becerilerin geleceğin meslekleriyle örtüşmeyeceği ve şirketlerin birçok yeni beceriye ihtiyaç duyacağıdır. Teknolojik gelişmeler milyonlarca iş yaratacak ancak yine milyonlarca iş bu süreçte yok olacaktır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, teknolojinin istihdam üzerindeki etkisi ile ilgili olarak, literatürde nicel olarak oldukça yetersiz olan makro düzeyde bir çalışma ile teknolojinin işsizlik üzerindeki nihai etkisine işaret etmektir. Bu çalışmada, 2005-2018 yılları için 33 OECD üyesi ülkede teknoloji ve işsizlik arasındaki ilişki S-GMM tahmincisi ile analiz edilmiştir. Panel veri analizine göre GSYİH dışındaki tüm kontrol değişkenlerinin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olduğu görülmektedir. Bağımsız değişken, teknolojiyi temsil eden IP5 patentleri istatistiksel olarak oldukça anlamlıdır ve bağımlı değişkenle negatif bir korelasyona sahiptir. Ampirik sonuçlar, teknolojideki %1'lik bir artışın işsizliği %0,07 oranında azalttığını göstermektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

İşsizlik, Teknolojik Değişim, Otomasyon, İnovasyon, Bölgesel Çalışmalar.

Kaynakça

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