Trend Analysis of Monthly Total Rainfall and Monthly Mean Air Temperature Variables of Yozgat in Turkey

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 32 Sayı: 2, 65 - 76, 15.06.2017

Murat Ay , Serhat Özyıldırım

https://doi.org/10.21605/cukurovaummfd.358364

Cited By: 5

Öz

The purpose of this study is to detect possible trends in monthly total rainfall and monthly mean air
temperature on the basis of Mann-Kendall (MK) and a new method recently proposed by Şen. The new
method is used for trend analysis of both variables’ data recorded at Yozgat province in Turkey over the
period 1970-2016. For comparison purpose, the well-known MK trend test is also applied to the same
data. In the first step, the historical data were divided into two time periods: 1970-1992 (276 values) and
1993-2016 (288 values). Each time part was analysed individually, and both parts were compared with
each other. Consequently, there is no statistically significant trend for both variables at 95% two-tailed
confidence interval in the period 1970-1992 and 1993-2016 according to the Mann-Kendall trend test.
However, there is an increasing trend for monthly total rainfall at 95% one-way confidence interval in the
period 1970-1992 according to the Şen trend test. Moreover, there is an increasing trend for monthly
mean air temperature in the period 1993-2016 according to the Şen trend test.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Mann-Kendall test, Rainfall, Şen’s trend test, Temperature, Turkey, Yozgat

Yozgat’ın Aylık Toplam Yağış ve Aylık Ortalama Hava Sıcaklıklarının Trend Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, aylık toplam yağış ve ortalama aylık hava sıcaklığında olası trendleri MannKendall
(MK) ve yakın zamanda Şen tarafından önerilen yeni bir yöntem ile belirlemektir. Şen metodu,
1970 ve 2016 tarihleri arasında Türkiye’de Yozgat’ta kaydedilen iki değişkenin trend analizi için
kullanılmıştır. Karşılaştırma amacıyla iyi bilinen MK trend testi de aynı verilere uygulanmıştır. İlk
adımda, veriler 1970-1992 ve 1993-2016 olmak üzere iki zaman aralığına ayrılmıştır. Her iki zaman
aralığı ayrı ayrı analiz edilmiş ve birbiriyle karşılaştırılmıştır. Sonuç olarak, MK testine göre 1970-1992
ve 1993-2016 zaman aralıklarında her iki değişken için %95 çift yönlü güven aralığında istatistiksel
olarak anlamlı bir trend bulunmamıştır. Ancak, Şen trend testine göre 1970-1992 döneminde aylık toplam
yağış için %95 tek yönlü güven aralığında artan bir trendin olduğu bulunmuştur. Ayrıca, Şen trend testine
göre 1993-2016 döneminde ortalama aylık hava sıcaklığı için de artan bir trendin olduğu bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Mann-Kendall test, Sıcaklık, Şen’s trend test, Türkiye, Yağış, Yozgat

Kaynakça

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