The Effect of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Human Development Index of EU Countries: An Analysis Using Machine Learning Methods

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 2, 176 - 184, 30.12.2024

Yusuf Kahreman , Abdulkadir Şeker

Öz

The Human Development Index (HDI) is a pivotal indicator in gauging the extent of development and living standards across countries. However, the global pandemic of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is believed to exert a deleterious influence on these indices. It is therefore important to understand the effects of the pandemic on HDI and how HDI would be shaped in a scenario without the pandemic. In this context, the HDI data for the years 1995-2019 were subjected to linear regression analysis, and the HDI values for 2020, 2021 and 2022, when the effects of the pandemic were observed, were estimated. Furthermore, the original HDI indicators were compared for these years. The study demonstrates that in the absence of the pandemic, the HDI values of the countries would continue the upward trajectory observed in previous years. Furthermore, despite the initial negative effects, the Netherlands and Portugal have reached the simulated HDI values by 2022, indicating that they have been able to overcome the significant slowdown or decline in HDI caused by the pandemic. The original HDI values of Austria, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Sweden and Sweden were only approximated by the simulated HDI values by 2022. In other EU countries, it is observed that the effects of the pandemic on HDI are long-lasting. In the analysis, Sweden is a notable exception.

Anahtar Kelimeler

HDI, COVID-19, Linear Regression, Forecasting

COVID-19 Pandemisinin AB Ülkelerinin İnsani Gelişmişlik Endeksi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Makine Öğrenmesi Yöntemleriyle İnceleme

Öz

İnsani Gelişmişlik Endeksi (HDI), ülkelerin gelişim düzeyini ve yaşam standartlarını belirlemede kritik bir gösterge iken COVID-19’un ülkelerin bu göstergelerini olumsuz etkilediği düşünülmektedir. Bu nedenle, pandeminin HDI üzerindeki etkilerini ve pandeminin olmadığı bir senaryoda HDI’nin nasıl şekilleneceğini anlamak önemlidir. Bu bağlamda, 1995-2019 yıllarına ait HDI verileri doğrusal regresyon yöntemiyle analiz edilerek pandeminin etkilerinin görüldüğü 2020, 2021 ve 2022 yıllarındaki HDI değerleri tahmin edilmiş, ayrıca orijinal HDI göstergeleri bu yıllar için karşılaştırılmıştır. Çalışmada, pandeminin yaşanmadığı bir senaryoda ülkelerin HDI değerlerinin önceki yıllardaki artış eğilimini sürdüreceğini ortaya koymaktadır. Buna ek olarak, COVID-19’un HDI üzerinde belirgin bir yavaşlama veya düşüşe yol açtığı anlaşılmakla birlikte, Hollanda ve Portekiz’in başlangıçtaki olumsuz etkilenmelere rağmen 2022 itibarıyla simüle edilen HDI değerlerine ulaştıkları görülmüştür. Avusturya, Hırvatistan, Kıbrıs, Danimarka, Finlandiya, Fransa, Yunanistan, İrlanda, İtalya, İspanya ve İsveç’in orijinal HDI değerlerinin simüle edilmiş HDI değerlerine ancak 2022 yılı itibariyle yaklaştıkları gözlemlenmiştir. Diğer AB ülkelerinde ise COVID-19’un HDI üzerinde kalıcı bir etkisinin olduğu görülmektedir. Analizde, Sweden için ise özel bir durum söz konusudur. Çalışma, pandeminin insani gelişmişliğe sürdürülebilirlik açısından oluşturduğu tehditlerin anlaşılmasına katkı sağlayarak literatüre önemli bir bakış açısı sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

HDI, COVID-19, Doğrusal Regresyon, Tahminleme

Kaynakça

• [1] UNDP, “Human Development Report 2023-24,” 2024.
• [2] C. V. Joana Carolina, R. G. Gabriela, and M. C. Ismael, “Effect of the economic, social and technological factors on sustainable entrepreneurship over time,” J Bus Res, vol. 173, p. 114457, Feb. 2024, doi: 10.1016/J.JBUSRES.2023.114457.
• [3] A. Goswami, H. Roy, and P. Giri, “Does HDIs level sustainable during 1999/2018 across cross-nations? An application of bootstrap quantile regression approach,” Sustainable Operations and Computers, vol. 2, pp. 127–138, Jan. 2021, doi: 10.1016/J.SUSOC.2021.06.001.
• [4] C. A. Mbouteu Megaptche, S. Waita, H. Kim, P. M. Musau, and B. Odhiambo Aduda, “Multi-dimensional analysis in optimal sizing of hybrid renewable energy systems for green energy growth in Garoua, Cameroon: From techno-economic and social models to policies,” Energy Convers Manag, vol. 315, p. 118804, Sep. 2024, doi: 10.1016/J.ENCONMAN.2024.118804.
• [5] K. Tong, “Urbanization moderates the transitional linkages between energy resource use, greenhouse gas emissions, socio-economic and human development: Insights from subnational analyses in China,” J Clean Prod, vol. 476, p. 143776, Oct. 2024, doi: 10.1016/J.JCLEPRO.2024.143776.
• [6]A. Mirahmadizadeh et al., “Correlation between human development index and its components with COVID-19 indices: a global level ecologic study,” BMC Public Health, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 1–8, Dec. 2022, doi: 10.1186/S12889-022-13698-5/FIGURES/1.
• [7] R. P. Masini, M. C. Medeiros, and E. F. Mendes, “Machine learning advances for time series forecasting,” J Econ Surv, vol. 37, no. 1, pp. 76–111, Feb. 2023, doi: 10.1111/JOES.12429.
• [8]F. B. Khan and A. Noor, “Prediction and Classification of Human Development Index Using Machine Learning Techniques,” in 2021 5th International Conference on Electrical Information and Communication Technology, EICT 2021, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2021. doi: 10.1109/EICT54103.2021.9733645.
• [9]C. V. C. Palamim, M. N. Boschiero, F. E. Valencise, and F. A. L. Marson, “Human Development Index Is Associated with COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate in Brazil: An Ecological Study,” Int J Environ Res Public Health, vol. 19, no. 9, p. 5306, May 2022, doi: 10.3390/IJERPH19095306/S1.
• [10]S. Sareminia, “Upgrading the Human Development Index (HDI) to control pandemic mortality rates: A data mining approach to COVID-19,” Journal of AI and Data Mining, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 345–360, Jul. 2022, doi: 10.22044/JADM.2022.11503.2307.
• [11]M. F. Groppo, F. C. Groppo, S. R. Figueroba, and A. C. Pereira, “Influence of Population Size, the Human Development Index and the Gross Domestic Product on Mortality by COVID-19 in the Southeast Region of Brazil,” Int J Environ Res Public Health, vol. 19, no. 21, p. 14459, Nov. 2022, doi: 10.3390/IJERPH192114459/S1.
• [12]M. H. Heo, Y. D. Kwon, J. Cheon, K. B. Kim, and J. W. Noh, “Association between the Human Development Index and Confirmed COVID-19 Cases by Country,” Healthcare 2022, Vol. 10, Page 1417, vol. 10, no. 8, p. 1417, Jul. 2022, doi: 10.3390/HEALTHCARE10081417.
• [13]G. Kavuran, Ş. Gökhan, and C. Yeroğlu, “COVID-19 and human development: An approach for classification of HDI with deep CNN,” Biomed Signal Process Control, vol. 81, p. 104499, Mar. 2023, doi: 10.1016/J.BSPC.2022.104499.
• [14]E. Ozden and D. Guleryuz, “Optimized Machine Learning Algorithms for Investigating the Relationship Between Economic Development and Human Capital,” Comput Econ, vol. 60, no. 1, pp. 347–373, Jun. 2022, doi: 10.1007/S10614-021-10194-7/FIGURES/4.
• [15]A. Jannani, N. Sael, and F. Benabbou, “Predicting Quality of Life using Machine Learning: case of World Happiness Index,” 2021 4th International Symposium on Advanced Electrical and Communication Technologies, ISAECT 2021, 2021, doi: 10.1109/ISAECT53699.2021.9668429.