Analysing the Effects of Atmospheric Teleconnections on Streamflow Regime in the Eastern Black Sea Basin in Türkiye

Öz

Analysing the variations in hydrological cycle components is essential for water resources planning and management. In this study, the relationship between the streamflow data belonging to five discharge gauging stations in the Eastern Black Sea Basin in Türkiye and the Arctic Oscillation (AO), East Atlantic-Western Russia (EAWR), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP) was investigated. For this purpose, Spearman’s correlation test, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and relative importance analysis were used. Accordingly, Spearman’s correlation coefficients were calculated between raw streamflow data, decomposed streamflow data via EEMD and atmospheric teleconnections. Then, the relative importance analysis was applied to determine the atmospheric teleconnections’ influences on streamflow data. The findings showed that the relationship between raw streamflow data and atmospheric teleconnections is generally more significant and negative in the winter and spring. Furthermore, it was observed that the linkage between the decomposed streamflow data and atmospheric teleconnections could differentiate. Although no significant correlation between atmospheric teleconnections and raw streamflow data was detected in some months, significant correlations were detected between atmospheric teleconnections and decomposed streamflow data. This reveals the importance of examining the relationship between atmospheric teleconnections and streamflow data for different periods. The relative importance analysis revealed that the influence of atmospheric teleconnections on streamflow data could change from station to station and from component to component. This study showed that investigating the effects of atmospheric teleconnections on streamflow data for different components and periods is important.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Streamflow
• Atmospheric Teleconnections
• EEMD
• Correlation
• Relative Importance
• Eastern Black Sea

Türkiye’nin Doğu Karadeniz Havzası’nda Atmosferik Tele Bağlantıların Akarsu Rejimi Üzerindeki Etkilerinin Analiz Edilmesi

Öz

Hidrolojik döngü bileşenlerindeki değişimlerin analiz edilmesi su kaynaklarının planlanması ve yönetilmesi açısından önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin Doğu Karadeniz Havzası’nda yer alan beş farklı akım gözlem istasyonuna ait akım verileri ile Arktik Salınım (AO), Doğu Atlantik-Batı Rusya Paterni (EAWR), Kuzey Atlantik Salınımı (NAO) ve Kuzey Denizi Hazar Paterni (NCP) arasındaki ilişki araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla, Spearman’s korelasyon testi, toplu ampirik mod ayrıştırma metodu (EEMD) ve nispi önem analizi kullanılmıştır. Buna göre, Spearman’s korelasyon katsayıları hem ham akım verileri hem de EEMD ile bileşenlerine ayrılmış akım değerleri ile atmosferik tele bağlantılar arasında hesaplanmıştır. Daha sonra, atmosferik tele bağlantıların akım verileri üzerindeki etkisini belirlemek amacıyla nispi önem analizi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, ham akım verileri ile atmosferik tele bağlantılar arasındaki ilişkinin genel olarak kış ve ilkbahar aylarında daha önemli ve negatif olduğunu göstermiştir. Bununla birlikte, bileşenlerine ayrılmış akım verileri ile atmosferik tele bağlantılar arasındaki ilişkinin her bir bileşen için farklılık gösterebildiği gözlenmiştir. Atmosferik tele bağlantılar ile ham akım verileri arasında bazı aylar için herhangi bir ilişki bulunmamasına rağmen, bileşenlerine ayrılmış akım verileri ile atmosferik tele bağlantılar arasında önemli korelasyonlar tespit edilmiştir. Bu durum, atmosferik tele bağlantılar ile akım verileri arasındaki ilişkinin farklı periyotlarda incelenmesinin önemini ortaya koymaktadır. Nispi önem analizi atmosferik tele bağlantıların akım verileri üzerindeki etkisinin istasyondan istasyona ve bileşenden bileşene gösterdiğini ortaya koymuştur. Bu çalışma, atmosferik tele bağlantıların akım verileri üzerindeki etkisinin farklı bileşenler ve periyotlar için araştırılmasının önemini göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Akım
• Atmosferik Tele Bağlantılar
• EEMD
• Korelasyon
• Nispi Önem
• Doğu Karadeniz

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