Trakya Bölgesi’nde Sıcaklık Değişimlerinin Trend Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Trakya Yarımadası'nda (TY) yer alan Edirne, Kırklareli ve Tekirdağ'ın 1960-2024 yılları arasındaki aylık maksimum, ortalama ve minimum uzun süreli zaman serisi hava sıcaklığı verileri Mann-Kendall (MK), Şen eğilim ve doğrusal eğilim testleri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Daha önceki çalışmalarda tespit edilen kuraklık çalışmaları sonuçları bu çalışmanın bulgularıyla karşılaştırılmıştır. Trend analizi sonuçları, tüm istasyonlarda kaydedilen aylık hava sıcaklıklarının Şen eğilim testine göre %5 anlamlılık düzeyinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir artış gösterdiği görülmüştür. Kırklareli'ndeki aylık maksimum sıcaklık hariç tüm istasyonlardaki sıcaklıklar, MK testine göre %5 anlamlılık düzeyinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı artış eğilimleri (Edirne (+2.28, +2.17, +2.05); Kırklareli (1.43**, 2.16, 2.07); Tekirdağ (2.46, 2.07, 2.09)) göstermiştir. Doğrusal eğilim analizine göre ise %5 çift taraflı hipotez testine göre, Kırklareli'ndeki aylık maksimum sıcaklık hariç, tüm hava sıcaklıklarında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı artış eğilimi görülmüştür. Bu analizlere göre, TY’nin 1960 ve 2024 yıllarında değişen hava şartları ve doğal dengedeki hava sıcaklıklarının artığını doğruladığı söylenebilir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Mann-Kendall trend testi
• Şen trend testi
• Sıcaklık
• Trakya Yarımadası

Trend Analysis of Temperature Changes in the Trakya Region

Öz

Monthly maximum, mean, and minimum long-term time series data (1960-2024) of air temperature from Edirne, Kırklareli, and Tekirdağ—located in the Trakya Peninsula (TP) of Türkiye—were tested by using the Mann-Kendall (MK), Şen trend and linear trend analysis tests in this study. The drought results determined in previous studies were compared with the results found in the study. The trend analysis outcomes revealed that the monthly air temperatures recorded at all stations have increased significantly at the 5% significance level according to the Şen trend test. The temperatures at all stations—except for the monthly maximum temperature in Kırklareli—showed statistically significant increasing trends at the 5% level according to the MK test (Edirne (+2.28, +2.17, +2.05); Kırklareli (1.43**, 2.16, 2.07); Tekirdağ (2.46, 2.07, 2.09)). Statistically significant upward trends in all air temperatures, except for the monthly maximum temperature in Kırklareli, under the 5% two-tailed hypothesis test, were seen according to the linear trend analysis. According to these analyses, it can be said that TP confirms the changing weather conditions and the increase in air temperatures in the natural balance between 1960 and 2024. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Mann-Kendall trend test
• Şen trend test
• Temperature
• Trakya Peninsula

Kaynakça

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