Integration of Bayesian Networks with GIS for Dynamic Avalanche Hazard Assessment: NSDI Perspective

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 1, 34 - 44, 31.01.2018

İpek Yılmaz , Derya Öztürk

https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.365255

Öz

Natural hazard assessments are core to risk
definition and early warning systems and play a fundamental role in the prevention of
major damages. Traditional hazard identification methods are static. For this
reason, new information and conditions cannot be easily included in the
pre-defined hazard assessments. The Bayesian Networks can be used effectively
for dynamic hazard identification. In this study, a methodology based on the
Bayesian Networks model is presented for dynamic avalanche hazard assessment,
in which changed and renewed data can be included in the system. In the
proposed methodology, the integration of the Bayesian Networks and Geographical
Information Systems (GIS) is modeled in the National Spatial Data
Infrastructure (NSDI) perspective. In this structure, it is possible to combine
and analyze the data obtained from different sources and factors for avalanche
hazard can be dynamically updated with real-time updated data and temporal
hazard mapping can be produced. The proposed methodology provides a generic
structure and has an attribute making it applicable for dynamic mapping studies
for other disasters.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dynamic Hazard Assessment , Avalanche , Bayesian Networks , GIS , NSDI

Dinamik Çığ Tehlike Değerlendirmesi İçin Bayes Ağlarının CBS'ye Entegrasyonu: UKVA Perspektifi

Öz

Doğal
afetlerle ilgili çalışmalarda tehlike değerlendirmesi, risk tanımlama ve erken
uyarı sistemlerinin temelidir ve büyük kayıpların engellenmesinde önemli bir
rol oynamaktadır. Klasik tehlike tanımlama yöntemleri statiktir. Bu nedenle,
yeni bilgi ve koşullar önceden tanımlanmış tehlike değerlendirmelerine kolayca
dahil edilemez. Bayes Ağları, dinamik tehlike tanımlaması için etkin bir
şekilde kullanılabilir. Bu çalışmada, değişen ve yenilenen verilerin sisteme
dahil edilebildiği dinamik çığ tehlike değerlendirmesi için Bayes Ağlarına
dayanan bir yaklaşım sunulmuştur. Önerilen metodolojide, Bayes Ağlarının ve
Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemlerinin (CBS) entegrasyonu, Ulusal Konumsal Veri Altyapısı
(UKVA) perspektifinde modellenmiştir. Bu yapıda, farklı kaynaklardan elde
edilen verilerin birleştirilmesi ve analiz edilmesi mümkün olup, çığ tehlikesi
için etken faktörler gerçek zamanlı güncel verilerle dinamik olarak
güncellenerek zamansal tehlike haritaları üretilebilir. Önerilen metodoloji
genel bir yapı sunmaktadır ve diğer afetlere yönelik dinamik harita üretimi
çalışmaları için uyarlanabilir niteliktedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dinamik Tehlike Değerlendirmesi , Çığ , Bayes Ağları , CBS , UKVA

Kaynakça

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