Diyarbakır İstasyonunda 1929–2016 Boyunca Tarihsel Kuraklığın Yenilikçi Şen Yöntemi ile Trend Analizi

Öz

Bir doğal afet olarak kuraklık; su temini, hidroelektrik üretimi, tarım ve sanayi gibi çeşitli sektörleri etkilemektedir. Su kaynaklarının etkin ve verimli kullanılması açısından, kuraklığın zamansal değişiminin belirlenmesi önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Diyarbakır ilindeki meteoroloji gözlem istasyonunda 1929-2016 yılları arasında ölçülmüş aylık toplam yağış verileri kullanılarak kuraklık analizi yapılmıştır. Kuraklık analizinden önce verilerin homojenliği kontrol edilmiştir. Kuraklığın belirlenmesinde, Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi (SYİ) yöntemi kullanılmış ve 1, 3, 6 ve 12 aylık zaman ölçeklerinde meydana gelen tarihsel kuraklık indis değerleri belirlenmiştir. Farklı zaman ölçeklerine göre hesaplanan kuraklık indis değerlerinin trendini belirlemek için Yenilikçi Şen Yöntemi (Innovative Trend Analysis-ITA) kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada, 1, 3, 6 ve 12 aylık zaman ölçekleri için en kurak periyodlar sırasıyla 8, 18, 21 ve 53 ay olarak belirlenmiştir. 1 aylık zaman ölçeğinde (SYİ-1) kurak dönem meydana gelme oranı %40 iken, diğer zaman ölçeklerinde bu değerin yaklaşık %50 olduğu, ayrıca üç aylık (SYİ-3), altı aylık (SYİ-6) ve 12 aylık (SYİ-12) için orta kurak ve üzeri kuraklık meydana gelme oranının %15-16.5 arasında değiştiği görülmüştür. Yenilikçi Şen Yöntemi ile kuraklık indislerinin trendi incelendiğinde ise, özellikle SYİ-12 için 0.8’den büyük indis değerlerinde zayıf bir azalma eğilimi, orta nemli sınıfa giren indis değerlerinde ise %5 üzerinde bir azalma eğilimi belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca, SYİ-12 değerlerinde -3 ve -3’ten küçük indis değerlerinin güçlü bir artış (%10 ve üzeri) eğilimi gösterdiği, yani aşırı kurak durumun son yıllarda azaldığı tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kuraklık Analizi
• Trend Analizi
• Homojenlik
• Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi
• Yenilikçi Şen Yöntemi

Trend Analysis of Historical Drought During 1929-2016 in Diyarbakır Station with Innovative Şen Method

Öz

Drought, a natural disaster, affects various sectors such as water supply, hydropower generation, agriculture, and industry. It is important to determine temporal change of drought in order to use water resources effectively and efficiently. In this study, drought analysis is performed using monthly total precipitation data measured between 1929-2016 at the meteorology observation station in Diyarbakır, Turkey. A homogeneity test is also made before drought analysis. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method is used to determine drought for 1, 3, 6 and 12 months’ time scales, and Innovative Şen Method (also known as Innovative Trend Analysis-ITA) is used to identify the trend of drought indices values for different time scales. The driest periods are determined according to time scales of 1, 3, 6 and 12 months are found as 8, 18, 21 and 53 months, respectively. While the percentage of dry periods is 40% for the 1-month time scale (SPI-1), and about 50% for the other time scales. The percentage of droughts (sum of moderate, severe, and extreme drought) for 3-months (SPI-3), 6-months (SPI-6) and 12-months (SPI-12) is between 15% and 16.5%. The ITA method results show that a weak decreasing trend found on SPI-12 for indices value greater than 0.8, and a strong decreasing trend (more than 5%) is calculated for moderate wet values. In addition, it is determined that the index values, less than -3 and -3, in SPI-12 values shows a very strong increasing trend (more than 10%). Its means that the extreme dry situation has decreased in recent years.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Drought Analysis
• Trend Analysis
• Homogeneity
• Standardized Precipitation Index
• Innovative Şen Method

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