Forest Fire Risk Modeling Using Logistic Regression and Geographic Information Systems: A Case Study in Muğla - Milas

Öz

Forest fires are an important environmental problem, they negatively affect the entire ecosystem and human and animal life in it. In Turkey 192.734 hectares of forest area has been damaged in 46.669 forest fires in the last 20 years. Negligence-accident is the primary cause of these fires. For this reason, in order to minimize the frequency of forest fires and prevent damages, areas with fire risk should be determined and it is necessary to be prepared for the precautions to be taken before, during and after the fire. In this study, Logistic Regression (LR) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to model the forest fire risk for the Milas province in Muğla. Considering the topographic features, stand data and cultural data, the relationship of these factors with the occurrence of fires was investigated. Accuracy analyzes of fire risk estimation with LR and fire risks of areas with different properties were examined by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. In line with the findings obtained by the LR method, a forest fire risk map was created in the GIS environment. Here, forest fire risk is evaluated at five levels, with “1” very low risk and “5” very high risk. In the resulting forest fire risk map, it was concluded that 16% of the total forest areas in the study area are in high and very high risk classes.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Forest Fire
• Fire Risk Mapping
• Logistic Regression
• Geographical Information Systems
• Milas (Muğla)

Lojistik Regresyon ve Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri Kullanılarak Orman Yangını Risk Modellemesi: Muğla-Milas Örneği

Öz

Orman yangınları önemli bir çevre sorunu olmakla beraber tüm ekosistem ve içerisindeki insan ve hayvan yaşamını olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. Türkiye’de son 20 yılda yaşanan 46.669 orman yangınında toplamda 192.734 hektar orman alanı zarar görmüştür. Bu yangınların ortaya çıkış nedenlerinde ise ilk sırada ihmal-kaza bulunmaktadır. Bu nedenle meydana gelen orman yangınlarının sıklığını en aza indirmek ve zararları önlemek için yangın riski olan alanların belirlenerek, yangın öncesinde, sırasında ve sonrasında alınacak önlemler için hazırlıklı olunması gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada Muğla ili Milas ilçesi için orman yangını riskini modellemede Lojistik Regresyon (LR) ve Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri (CBS) kullanılmıştır. Topoğrafik özellikler, meşcere verileri ve kültürel veriler dikkate alınarak, bu faktörlerin yangınların oluşumu ile ilişkisi araştırılmıştır. LR ile yangın risk tahmininin doğruluk analizleri ve farklı özelliklerdeki alanların yangın riskleri Alıcı Çalışma Karakteristiği (ROC) ve Hosmer-Lemeshow testi ile incelenmiştir. Lojistik Regresyon yöntemi ile elde edilen bulgular doğrultusunda CBS ortamında bir orman yangını risk haritası oluşturulmuştur. Burada orman yangını riski “1” çok düşük riskli ve “5” çok yüksek riskli olmak üzere beş seviyede değerlendirilmiştir. Ortaya çıkan orman yangını risk haritasında, çalışma alanında bulunan toplam orman alanlarının %16’sının yüksek ve çok yüksek risk sınıfında bulunduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Orman Yangını
• Yangın Risk Haritalandırması
• Lojistik Regresyon
• Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri
• Milas (Muğla)

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