DETECTING ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN SERVICES: EVIDENCE FROM TÜRKİYE

Öz

While agricultural production constituted the basis of economies all over the world until the last centuries, industrial production has reached an important share with the Industrial Revolution. However, the rapid growth of the service sector in the last century has increased the share of the service sector in international trade. The relationship between international trade in goods and exchange rates has been the subject of many studies, and a certain empirical consensus has emerged on this issue. This study investigates whether imports and exports in the services sector have an asymmetric relationship with exchange rate fluctuations in the case of Turkish economy. The findings indicate that the appreciation of the domestic currency has a positive effect on services exports, while it has no significant effect on imports. Moreover, the estimations reveal that the Marshall-Lerner condition is not fully fulfilled for the services sector in Türkiye, and the J curve phenomenon is not valid.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Service sector
• exports
• imports
• time series analysis
• NARDL model

DÖVİZ KURUNUN ULUSLARARASI HİZMET TİCARETİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ASİMETRİK ETKİSİNİN BELİRLENMESİ: TÜRKİYE’DEN BULGULAR

Öz

Son yüzyıllara kadar tüm dünyada ekonomilerin temelini tarımsal üretim oluşturmakta iken Sanayi Devrimi ile birlikte endüstriyel üretim de önemli bir paya ulaşmıştır. Ancak, son yüzyılda hizmet sektörünün hızla büyümesi uluslararası ticarette de hizmet sektörünün payını artırmıştır. Uluslararası mal ticaretinin döviz kuru ile ilişkisi birçok çalışmada ele alınmış, bu konuda belirli bir ampirik uzlaşı ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu çalışmada ise, hizmet sektöründe gerçekleştirilen ithalat ve ihracatın döviz kuru hareketleriyle ilişkisi Türkiye örneğinde, zaman serileri analizi kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, yerli paradaki değerlenmenin hizmet ihracatını olumlu etkilediğine, ithalat üzerinde ise anlamlı bir etkide bulunmadığına işaret etmektedir. Ayrıca, tahminler Türkiye’de hizmet sektörü açısından Marshall-Lerner koşulunun tam olarak sağlanmadığını, J eğrisi olgusunun geçerli olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hizmet sektörü
• ihracat
• ithalat
• zaman serileri analizi
• NARDL modeli

Kaynakça

1. Arize, A. C., Malindretos, J., & Igwe, E. U. (2017). Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach. International Review of Economics and Finance, 49, 313–326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.02.004
2. Aydın, A. (2018). An evaluation on the competitiveness of international trade in services: A case study of Turkey. In ICOAEF’18 IV. International Conference on Applied Economics and Finance. Aydın, Türkiye. (In Turkish)
3. Aytekin, İ., & Uçan, O. (2022). An econometric analysis of the relationship between exchange rate inflation and foreign trade: Turkey case. Journal of Ömer Halisdemir University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 15(2), 460–475. https://doi.org/10.17561/johufebs.v15i2.1092371 (In Turkish)
4. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Fariditavana, H. (2016). Nonlinear ARDL approach and the J-curve phenomenon. Open Economies Review, 27, 51–70. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-015-9371-7
5. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Karamelikli, H. (2021). Financial and insurance services trade and role of the exchange rate: An asymmetric analysis. Economic Analysis and Policy, 72, 358–367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.08.006
6. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Baek, J. (2023). Korean trade in 10 service industries and role of the won? An asymmetric analysis. International Economic Journal, 37(1), 93–119. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2022.2158011
7. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Karamelikli, H. (2023). Is there J-curve effect in the US service trade? Evidence from asymmetric analysis. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 28, 3865–3875. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2658
8. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Saha, S. (2024). On the link between Indian rupee and its trade in services: An asymmetric analysis. Journal of Economic Development, 49(1), 1–20. https://jed.or.kr/

9. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Halicioglu, F., & Karamelikli, H. (2024). Singapore’s trade in financial and insurance services and the role of the exchange rate: An asymmetric analysis. The International Trade Journal, 38(2), 171–183. https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2023.2185523
10. Bal, H., Akça, E. E., & Demiral, M. (2017). The influences of exchange rate changes on Turkey's trade with the European Union. Journal of KSU Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 7(2), 61–82. https://www.cabidigitallibrary.org/doi/full/10.5555/20203193064 (In Turkish)
11. Batbaylı, Ş., & Ertürk, E. (2024). The relationship between health service exports as international service trade and exchange rate and economic growth. Journal of Dicle University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 14(27), 336–364. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/duiibfd/issue/84536/1324811 (In Turkish)
12. Bussiere, M. (2013). Exchange rate pass-through to trade prices: The role of nonlinearities and asymmetries. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 75, 731–758. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2012.00706.x
13. Cheng, K. M. (2020). Currency devaluation and trade balance: Evidence from the US services trade. Journal of Policy Modeling, 42, 20–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2019.05.003
14. Cheng, K. M. (2021). Financial and insurance services trade: Does exchange rate or income matter? Economic Inquiry, 59(1), 494–509. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12926
15. Chigeto, A. D. (2024). Relative responses of trade in goods and services to currency devaluation: Evidence from Ethiopia. Heliyon, 10, e30223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e30223
16. Çakmak, E., Bozkurt, E., Aksu, H., & Emsen, Ö. S. (2011). Service trade and economic growth relationship in Turkey. Sosyoekonomi, 2, 21–40. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/sosyoekonomi/issue/30503/332859 (In Turkish)
17. Çeştepe, H., & Ergün, H. (2011). The role of service trade in economies of the world and Turkey. Journal of Bartın University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 2(4), 49–69. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/bartiniibf/issue/28986/310097 (In Turkish)
18. Değer, O., & Demir, M. (2015). Causality between real effective exchange rate and foreign trade volume: The case of Turkey. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 52(604), 7–21. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/788189 (In Turkish)
19. Demir, Z., & Karagöz, K. (2024). Asymmetric effect of oil price on foreign trade: Evidence from Turkey. Anadolu Journal of Economics and Business, 8(1), 17–42. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ajeb/issue/81857/1327716 (In Turkish)
20. Denaux, Z. S., & Falks, R. (2013). Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: The EU and Turkey. Southwestern Economic Review, 40, 113–121. https://swer.wtamu.edu//sites/default/files/Data/113-121-296-1095-1-PB.pdf
21. Dinçer, N., & Kandil, M. (2011). The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on exports: A sectoral analysis for Turkey. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 20(6), 809–837. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2011.538201
22. Eichengreen, B., & Gupta, P. (2012). The real exchange rate and export growth: Are services different? MPRA Paper No. 43358. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/43358/
23. Güler, A. (2021). Asymmetric effects of real exchange rate shocks on exports and foreign trade balance: Evidence from NARDL approach for Turkey. Manas Journal of Social Research, 10(2), 950–970. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/mjss/issue/61635/893229 (In Turkish)
24. Halıcıoğlu, F. (2008). The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners. Journal of Asian Economics, 19(3), 236–243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2008.02.001
25. Hussain, M. E., & Haque, M. (2014). Is the J-curve a reality in developing countries? Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 1(2), 231–240. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ksp:jecpep:v:1:y:2014:i:2:p:231-240
26. Karagöz, K. (2024, June). The impact of exchange rate movements on international trade in services in Turkey: Findings from the ARDL model. In 3rd International Conference on Frontiers in Academic Research. Konya, Türkiye. (In Turkish)
27. Koca, A., & Yıldırım, N. (2021). Basic determinants of service export in Turkish economy: A time series analysis. Journal of Hacettepe University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 39(3), 441–458. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/huniibf/issue/63456/918383 (In Turkish)
28. Koca, A., & Sevinç, D. (2023). The impact of exchange rate volatility on international services trade: EAGLE countries. Journal of Hacettepe University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 41(4), 630–649. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/huniibf/issue/79231/1267223 (In Turkish)
29. Mahmood, H., & Alkhateeb, T. T. Y. (2017). Testing asymmetrical effect of exchange rate on Saudi service sector trade: A non-linear auto-regressive distributive lag approach. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(1), 73–77. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijefi/issue/31807/351402
30. Özkul, G., & Öztürk, A. (2019). The interaction between exchange rate volatility accompanied with structural breaks and the sectoral foreign trade of Turkey. BAIBU Social Sciences Institute Journal, 19(4), 1069–1095. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/bibad/issue/51840/656624 (In Turkish)
31. Pesaran, H. M., Shin, Y. C., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approach to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
32. Sahoo, M. (2018). Exchange rate and service exports from India: A nonlinear ARDL analysis. Economics Bulletin, 38(2), 1090–1101. http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2018/Volume38/EB-18-V38-I2-P99.pdf
33. Sahoo, M., Suresh Babu, M., & Dash, U. (2019). Asymmetric effects of exchange rate movements on traditional and modern services exports: Evidence from a large emerging economy. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 28(4), 508–531. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2019.1568523
34. Saygılı, H., Saygılı, M., & Yılmaz, G. (2010). New real effective exchange rate indices for Türkiye (Working Paper No. 10/12). Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/cbtr/en/main+menu/publications/research+papers/2010
35. Shin, Y., Yu, B. C., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In R. Sickles & W. Horrace (Eds.), Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric methods and applications (pp. 281–314). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9
36. Tapşın, G., & Karabulut, A. T. (2013). The causal relationship among real exchange rate, import and export: The case of Turkey. Journal of Akdeniz Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 26, 190–205. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/auiibf/issue/39977/472656 (In Turkish)
37. Utkulu, U., & Seymen, D. (2004). Trade and competitiveness between Turkey and the EU: Time series evidence. Discussion Paper No. 2004/8. Turkish Economic Association. https://www.tek.org.tr/dosyalar/Utkulu_Seymen.pdf
38. World Trade Organization. (2024). General statistical time series database – Mode of supply. https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/gstdh_mode_supply_e.htm (Accessed: 13.06.2024)
39. Yazici, M., & Islam, M. Q. (2014). Exchange rate and bilateral trade balance of Turkey with EU (15) countries. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 3(3), 341–356. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2015312921
40. Yurtoğlu, Y. (2017). The causal relationship between real exchange rate and export: The case of Turkey (1997–2015). Gazi Journal of Economics and Business, 3(1), 71–88. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/gjeb/issue/27182/286370 (In Turkish)
41. Yurttançıkmaz, Z. Ç., Azgün, S., Hiç Gencer, A., & Emsen, Ö. S. (2017). Dramatically rising service trade and competitiveness power: Developments in Turkish economy (1980–2015). In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. İstanbul. (In Turkish)