Analysis of the Environmental Security Risks in the Black Sea: Türkiye’s Perspective

Ferhan Oral; Murat Selçuk Solmaz

doi:10.18613/deudfd.1885983

TR EN

Karadeniz’deki Çevresel Risklerin Analizi: Türkiye Perspektifi

Öz

Karadeniz'deki çevresel riskler, havzanın yarı kapalı yapısı, ekolojik kırılganlığı ve artan insan kaynaklı ve jeopolitik baskılar nedeniyle son yıllarda artmıştır. Çalışmada, yapılandırılmış uzman tabanlı bir risk değerlendirme yaklaşımıyla Karadeniz’deki denizel çevresel güvenlik riskleri değerlendirilmiştir. Olasılık-etki analizi ve 5×5 risk matrisi kullanılarak, Karadeniz’de çevresel açıdan risk oluşturabileceği değerlendirilen alanlar, yapılan literatür taraması ve konuyla ilgili uzmanlardan alınan görüşler doğrultusunda belirlenmiş ve belirlenen kategorilerin olasılık ve etkileri hesaplanarak sistematik önceliklendirme yapılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlarla, belirlenen risklerin hem oluşma olasılıkları hem de potansiyel etkilerine yönelik veriler elde edilmiş, Rusya-Ukrayna savaşı, diğer askeri faaliyetlerle ilgili riskler, kara ve nehir havzası kaynaklı riskler ile iklim değişikliğiyle bağlantılı risklerin kritik risk bölgesinde kümelendiği görülmüştür. Çalışma, Karadeniz'de çevresel güvenlik yönetimi ve denizcilik risk azaltma stratejileri için bilgi sağlayabilecek, ampirik temelli, bölgeye özgü bir risk önceliklendirme çerçevesi sunarak literatüre katkıda bulunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Karadeniz, çevreesel güvenlik, risk analizi, risk haritası, Rusya-Ukrayna savaşı bağlantılı riskler

Analysis of the Environmental Security Risks in the Black Sea: Türkiye’s Perspective

Öz

Environmental risks in the Black Sea have intensified in recent years, driven by the basin’s semi-enclosed structure, ecological fragility, and growing anthropogenic and geopolitical pressures. The study analyses maritime environmental security risks in Black Sea using a structured, expert-based risk assessment framework grounded in a 5×5 probability–impact risk matrix. Environmental security risks with the potential to affect Black Sea were first identified through an extensive review of the relevant literature, complemented by expert judgement. Subsequently, expert elicitation was employed to obtain assessments of both the likelihood and potential impact of each identified risk, enabling the systematic quantification of probability and impact scores. Based on these expert-derived evaluations, the risks were comparatively analysed and prioritised to support a structured and preventive environmental security perspective. The results provided data on both the probability of occurrence and the potential impacts of the identified risks. It was observed that the Russia–Ukraine war and other military activity–related risks, land and river basin–related risks, and climate change-related risks clustered critical risk zones. The study contributes to the literature by providing an empirically based, region-specific risk-prioritization framework for environmental security governance and maritime risk mitigation strategies in Black Sea.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Black sea, environmental security, risk analysis, risk mapping, Russia-Ukraine war related risks

Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Deniz Mühendisliği (Diğer)

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Ferhan Oral ^*
0000-0003-3249-5266
Türkiye

Murat Selçuk Solmaz
0000-0002-8528-2865
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

29 Haziran 2026

Gönderilme Tarihi

10 Şubat 2026

Kabul Tarihi

9 Mart 2026

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2026 Cilt: 18 Sayı: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.18613/deudfd.1885983

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA72BJ43NE

APA

Oral, F., & Solmaz, M. S. (2026). Analysis of the Environmental Security Risks in the Black Sea: Türkiye’s Perspective. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Dergisi, 18(1), 100-138. https://doi.org/10.18613/deudfd.1885983

AMA

1.Oral F, Solmaz MS. Analysis of the Environmental Security Risks in the Black Sea: Türkiye’s Perspective. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Dergisi. 2026;18(1):100-138. doi:10.18613/deudfd.1885983

Chicago

Oral, Ferhan, ve Murat Selçuk Solmaz. 2026. “Analysis of the Environmental Security Risks in the Black Sea: Türkiye’s Perspective”. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Dergisi 18 (1): 100-138. https://doi.org/10.18613/deudfd.1885983.

EndNote

Oral F, Solmaz MS (01 Haziran 2026) Analysis of the Environmental Security Risks in the Black Sea: Türkiye’s Perspective. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Dergisi 18 1 100–138.

IEEE

[1]F. Oral ve M. S. Solmaz, “Analysis of the Environmental Security Risks in the Black Sea: Türkiye’s Perspective”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Dergisi, c. 18, sy 1, ss. 100–138, Haz. 2026, doi: 10.18613/deudfd.1885983.

ISNAD

Oral, Ferhan - Solmaz, Murat Selçuk. “Analysis of the Environmental Security Risks in the Black Sea: Türkiye’s Perspective”. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Dergisi 18/1 (01 Haziran 2026): 100-138. https://doi.org/10.18613/deudfd.1885983.

JAMA

1.Oral F, Solmaz MS. Analysis of the Environmental Security Risks in the Black Sea: Türkiye’s Perspective. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Dergisi. 2026;18:100–138.

MLA

Oral, Ferhan, ve Murat Selçuk Solmaz. “Analysis of the Environmental Security Risks in the Black Sea: Türkiye’s Perspective”. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Dergisi, c. 18, sy 1, Haziran 2026, ss. 100-38, doi:10.18613/deudfd.1885983.

Vancouver

1.Ferhan Oral, Murat Selçuk Solmaz. Analysis of the Environmental Security Risks in the Black Sea: Türkiye’s Perspective. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Dergisi. 01 Haziran 2026;18(1):100-38. doi:10.18613/deudfd.1885983