2000’li Yıllarda Türkiye için Turizm Yanlı Büyüme Hipotezinin Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de 2000li yıllarda turizm yanlı büyüme hipotezinin geçerliliğini yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan ekonometrik yöntemlerle analiz etmektir. Çalışmanın literatüre iki açıdan katkısı bulunmaktadır. Birincisi, çalışma, Türkiye için en güncel çeyreklik verilerle turizm yanlı büyüme analizini yapmaktadır. İkincisi, bu çalışma, söz konusu hipotezin geçerliliğini yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme yöntemiyle analiz eden ilk çalışma olma özelliğine sahiptir. Bu bağlamda, ayrıntılı bir giriş bölümünün ardından, çalışmada kullanılan model ve veri seti açıklanmaktadır. Takip eden bölümde, yöntem ve ampirik sonuçlar verilmekte ve son olarak da sonuç kısmında ampirik bulgular yorumlanmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turizm-yanlı Büyüme, Yapısal Kırılma, Zaman Serisi, Türkiye

The Empirical Analysis of the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis for Turkey in 2000s

Öz

This paper analyses the validity of tourism-led growth hypothesis in Turkey during 2000s. Accordingly, this study’s contributions to the related literature are twofold. Firstly, the most recent quarterly data are used for the analyses and secondly, a cointegration analysis based on a structural break is conducted for Turkey for the first time. In this context, after a brief introduction, the model and data are explained in detail. Then the methodology and empirical results are given. Lastly, in the conclusions, interpretetations of the empirical results are explained and some policy implications for Turkey are developed..

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tourism-led Growth, Structural Break, Time Series, Turkey

Kaynakça

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