TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE BÜYÜMENİN KAYNAKLARI: PARAMETRİK OLMAYAN BİR YAKLAŞIM

Öz

Bir ekonomide büyümenin kaynaklarının geleneksel büyüme muhasebesi çerçevesinde tahmini faktör piyasalarının rekabetçi oldukları ve üretim fonksiyonunun belirli bir kalıba uyduğu şeklindeki varsayımların sağlanmasını gerektirmektedir. Bu çalışmada Iwata vd. (2003) çalışmasından hareketle Türkiye ekonomisinde büyümenin kaynakları ve toplam faktör verimliliği (TFV) 1968-2006 dönemi için söz konusu varsayımların sağlanmasını gerektirmeyen parametrik olmayan regresyon analizi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Çıktının sermaye ve işgücü girdisine göre esneklik katsayılarının parametrik olmayan regresyon tahminleri Türkiye ekonomisinde ölçeğe göre azalan getiri olduğunu göstermektedir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre 1980 öncesi dönemde büyümenin kaynağı sermaye birikimi iken, 1980 sonrası dönemde 1991-95 yılları dışında TFV büyümesidir. İşgücünün büyümeye en önemli katkısını 1991-95 döneminde yaptığı gözlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Büyümenin Kaynakları, Toplam Faktör Verimliliği (TFV),Parametrik Olmayan Regresyon

SOURCES OF GROWTH IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY: A NON-PARAMETRIC APPROACH

Öz

Estimating the sources of economic growth within the framework of the conventional growth accounting approach is based on two assumptions namely the factor markets are competitive and the underlying aggregate production function has a specific form. In this study, following Iwata et al (2003), sources of economic growth and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the Turkish economy for the period 1968-2006 were estimated with nonparametric regression approach which does not require imposing these restrictive assumptions. Nonparametric estimates of income share of capital and labor indicated there are diminishing returns to scale in the Turkish economy. According to results, capital formation is the main sources of growth before in the pre-1980 period, TFP is the sources of growth with the exception of 1991-95 period and post-1980 period seems to be the sources of growth. It is observed that labor’s contribution to economic growth reached the highest level in the 1991-95.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sources of Growth, Total Factor Productivity (TFP), Non-parametric Regression

Kaynakça

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