POLİTİK İSTİKRARSIZLIK - EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (1987–2006)

Öz

Ekonomi ve politika sürekli olarak karşılıklı bir etkileşim içerisindedir. Özellikle ekonomik değişkenlerle demokratikleşme arasında ilişki hakkında kesin bir yargıya varılamaması, politik istikrarsızlık ile ekonomik değişkenler arasında ortaya çıkan ilişkilerin incelenmesinin gerekliliğini ortaya koymaktadır. Son dönemdeki çalışmalarda salt demokratikleşme bileşenleri yerine daha geniş bileşenleri kapsayan politik istikrar ya da politik istikrarsızlık değişkenleri kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı; Türkiye koşullarında oldukça sık yaşanan politik istikrarsızlığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektir. Burada değişkenlerin analizi bağlamında (veri zaman serisi) tek denklemli bir model kurulmakta, bu model çerçevesinde temel değişkenlerden ve kontrol değişkenlerinden yararlanılarak analizler yapılmaktadır. Bu araştırmanın bulgularına göre politik istikrasızlıkla ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ters yönlü ilişki, literatürle uyumlu olarak Türkiye açısından da doğrulanmakta ve çalışmada bu referansla çeşitli bazı politika önerilerinde bulunulmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Politik istikrarsızlık, Ekonomik Büyüme, Eşbütünleşme

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY (1987-2006)

Öz

Economy and policy are always in mutual interaction. Especially the fact that sharp judgement between economical variables and democratization cannot be put forward shows that the relationship between political instability and economical variables should be analysed. In recent studies political stability or instability variables including more comprehensive variables instead of democratization variables have been used. The main aim of this study is to analyse the effects of political instability often experienced in Turkey’s conditions on economic growth. Here in terms of the analysis of variables (data time series) a model with single equation was established and within the framework of this model some analyses were carried out with the help of main and control variables. To the findings, in accordance with the literature, it is verified that there is a reverse relationship between political instability and economic growth in Turkey and in the light of the findings, some policy suggestions are also made.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Political Instability, Economic Growth, Cointegration

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