FİNANSAL GELİŞME VE İKTİSADİ BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ:GELİŞMEKTE OLAN EKONOMİLER İÇİN ANALİZ

Öz

Bu çalışma finansal gelişme ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi Dumitrescu ve Hurlin (2012) tarafından geliştirilen panel Granger nedensellik testi kullanarak Brezilya, Çin, Endonezya, Filipinler, Güney Kore, Hindistan, Macaristan, Malezya, Meksika, Mısır, Peru, Şili, Tayland ve Türkiye için araştırmaktadır. Çalışmada kullanılan veri seti yıllık olup, 1988-2011 yılları arasını kapsamaktadır. Yurtiçi kredilerin Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla (GSYİH)’ya oranı ve kişi başına reel GSYİH büyüme oranı sırasıyla finansal gelişmenin ve iktisadi büyümenin göstergeleri olarak kullanılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar, belirgin biçimde finansal gelişmenin iktisadi büyümenin nedeni olduğunu ve bu ülkelerin büyüme oranlarını finansal sistemlerini geliştirerek hızlandırabileceklerini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Gelişme, İktisadi Büyüme, Panel Granger Nedensellik Testi,Gelişmekte Olan Ekonomiler

THE CAUSALITY RELATION BETWEEN FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN ANALYSIS FOR EMERGING ECONOMIES

Öz

This study examines the relationship between financial development and economicgrowth employing panel Granger causality test developed by Dumitrescu ve Hurlin (2012)for Brazil, Chile, China, Egypt, Hungry, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru,Philippines, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey. We used yearly data over the period 1988-2011. Domestic credits to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio and real GDP per capitaare used as indicators for financial development and economic growth respectively. Theempirical results strongly indicate that financial development Granger-causes economicgrowth and that these countries can accelerate their growth rates by improving theirfinancial systems.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Financial Development, Economic Growth, Panel Granger Causality Test,Emerging Economies

Kaynakça

1. Acaravcı, S.K., Öztürk, İ. ve Acaravcı, A. (2009), “Financial development and economic growth: literature survey and empirical evidence from sub-Saharan African countries”, South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 12(1), 11-27.
2. Acaravcı, A., Öztürk, İ. ve Acaravcı, S. K. (2007), “Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Turkey”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 11, 30-40.
3. Al-Yousif, Y. K. (2002), “Financial development and economic growth: another look at the evidence from developing countries”, Review of Financial Economics, 11, 131-150.
4. Altıntaş, H. ve Ayrıçay, Y. (2010), “Türkiye'de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Sınır Testi Yaklaşımıyla Analizi: 1987-2007”, 10 (2),71-98
5. Apergis, N., Filippidis, I. ve Economidou, C. (2007), “Financial Deepening and Economic Growth Linkages: A Panel Data Analysis”, Review of World Economics, 143(1), 179-198
6. Arestis, P., ve Demetriades, P. O. (1997), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence”, Economic Journal 107(442), 783-799.
7. Arestis, P., Demetriades, P. O., ve Luintel, K. (2001), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 33(1), 16-41.
8. Arrow, K. ve Debreu, G. (1954), “Existence of an equilibrium for a competitive economy”, Econometrica, 22, 265-29

9. Bailliu, J. N. (2000), “Private Capital Flows, Financial Development, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries”, Bank of Canada Working Paper 2000-15.
10. Beck, T., Levine, R. ve Loayza, N. (2000), Finance and the Sources of Growth. Journal of Financial Economics 58(1-2), 261-300.
11. Beck, T. ve Levine, R. (2004), “Stock Markets, Banks and Growth: Panel Evidence”, Journal of Banking and Finance 28(3), 423–442.
12. Bencivenga, V. ve Smith, B. (1991), “Financial intermediation and endogenous growth”, Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 1991, 195-209.
13. Blackburn, K. ve Hung, V. (1998), “A theory of growth, financial development and trade”, Economica, 65, 107-124.
14. Calderon, C. ve Liu, L. (2003), “The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 72, 321-334.
15. Christopoulos, D. K. ve Tsionas, E. G. (2004), “Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration test”, Journal of Development Economics, 73, 55-74.
16. Demetriades, P. ve Hussein, K. (1996), “Does financial development cause economic growth? Time series evidence from 16 countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 51, 387-411
17. Diaz-Alejandro, C. (1985), “Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash”, Journal of Development Economics, 19, 1-24.
18. Dumitrescu, E. I. ve Hurlin, C. (2012), “Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels”, Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
19. Fase, M. M. G. ve Abma, R. C. N. (2003), “Financial environment and economic growth in selected Asian countries”, Journal of Asian Economics, 14, 11-21.
20. Fry, M. (1989), “Financial development: theories and recent experience”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 5, 13-27.
21. Gaffeo, E. ve Garalova, P. (2013), “On the finance-growth nexus: additional evidence from Central and Eastern Europe countries”, Economic Change and Restructuring, 3, 1-27
22. Goldsmith, R. (1969), Financial structure and development, Yale University Press, New Haven.
23. Granger, C. (1969), “Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods”, Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
24. Greenwood, J. ve Jovanovic, B. (1990), “Financial development, growth and the distribution of income”, Journal of Political Economy, 98, 1067-1107.
25. Habibullah, M. (1999), “Financial development and economic growth in Asian countries: testing the financial-led growth hypothesis”, Savings and Development, 23, 279-290.
26. Habibullah, M. ve Eng, Y. (2006), “Does Financial Development Cause Economic Growth? A Panel Data Dynamic Analysis for the Asian Developing Countries”, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 11(4), 377-393.
27. Harrison, P., Sussman, O ve Zeira, J. (1999), “Finance and growth: Theory and new evidence”, Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Paper No. 1999-35.
28. Hassana, M. K., Sanchezb, B. ve Yuc, J. K. (2011). Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from panel data, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 51: 88-104.
29. Hatemi-J, A. (2003), “A new method to choose optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models”, Applied Economics Letters, 10(3):135-137.
30. Holtz-Eakin, D., Newey, W. ve Rosen, S. (1988). “Estimating vector autoregression with panel data”, Econometrica, 56, 1371-1395.
31. Hood, M.V., Kidd, Q. ve Morris, I.L. (2008), “Two sides of the same coin: Employing Granger causality tests in a time series cross-section framework”, Political Analysis, 161, 324-344.
32. Im, K.S., Pesaran M. H. ve Shin Y. (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.
33. Khan, S. M. ve Senhadji, A. S. (2003), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: A Review and New Evidence, Journal of African Economies”, Supplement 12(2), 89-110.
34. King, R. G. ve Levine, R. (1993a), “Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 108(3), 717-737.
35. King, R. G. ve Levine, R (1993b), “Finance, Entrepreneurship and Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3): 513-542.
36. La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A. ve Vishny, R. W. (1997), “Legal Determinants of External Finance”, Journal of Finance, 52(3), 1131-1150.
37. La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A. ve Vishny, R. W. (1998), “Law and Finance”, Journal of Political Economy, 106(6), 1113-1155.
38. Levine, R. ve Zervos, S. (1993), “What We Have Learned about Policy and Growth from Cross-Country Regressions?”, American Economic Review, 83(2), 426-430.
39. Levine, R., Loayza, N. ve Beck, T. (2000), “Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 46(1), 31-77.
40. Levine, R. (1991), “Stock markets, growth and tax policy”, Journal of Finance, 46, 1445-1465.
41. Levine, R. (1998), “The Legal Environment, Banks, and Long-Run Economic Growth”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 30(3), 596-613.
42. Levine, R. (1999), “Law, Finance, and Economic Growth”, Journal of Financial Intermediation, 8(1/2), 36-67.
43. Liang, Q. ve Teng, J.Z. (2006), “Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from China”, China Economic Review, 17, 395-411.
44. Lucas, R. E. (1988), “On the mechanics of economic development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3-42.
45. Luintel, K. B. ve Khan, M. (1999), “A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR”, Journal of Development Economics, 60, 381-405.
46. Maddala, G.S. ve Wu, S. (1999), “A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631-652.
47. McKinnon, R. (1973), Money and Capital in Economic Development, Brooking Institution, Washington DC.
48. Morgan Stanley Capital International (2013)
49. http://www.msci.com/products/indices/country_and_regional/em/
50. Lucas, R. (1988), “On the mechanics of economic development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3-42.
51. Pagano, M. (1993), “Financial market and growth: an overview”, European Economic Review, 37, 613-622.
52. Rachdi, H. ve M’barek, H. B. (2001), “The Causality between Financial Development and Economic Growth: Panel Data Cointegration and GMM System Approaches”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(1), 143-151.
53. Robinson, J. (1952). The Rate of Interest and Other Essays, Macmillan, London.
54. Romer, P. (1989), “Capital accumulation and the theory of long-run growth”, Modern Business Cycle Theory, (Ed. R. Barro), Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
55. Rousseau, P. L. (1998), “The Permanent Effects of Innovation of Financial Depth: Theory and US Historical Evidence from Unobservable Components Models, Journal of Monetary Economics, 42(2), 387-425.
56. Rousseau, P. ve Wachtel, P. (2000), “Equity Markets and Growth: Cross-Country Evidence on Timing and Outcomes, 1980-1995”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 24(12), 1933-1957.
57. Saint-Paul, G. (1992), “Technological choice, financial markets and economic development”, European Economic Review, 36, 763-781.
58. Shaw, E. (1973), Financial Deepening in Economic Development, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
59. Schwert, G. W. (1989), “Tests for unit-roots: A monte carlo investigation”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 7(2), 147-159.
60. Schumpeter, J. (1912), Theorie der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, (çeviri: The Theory of Economic Development, New Jersey: Transaction Publishers, 1934)
61. Thornton, J. (1994), “Financial deepening and economic growth: evidence from Asian economies”, Savings and Development, 18, 41-51.
62. Ünalmış, D. (2002), “The causality between financial development and economic growth: the case of Turkey”, The Central Bank of the Turkish Republic, Research Department Working Paper, No:3
63. Wachtel, P. ve Rousseau, P. (1995). Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth: A Historical Comparison of the U.S., U.K. and Canada. İçinde M. Bordo ve R. Sylla (Der.), Anglo-American Financial Systems: Institutions and Market in Twentieth Century North America and the United Kingdom. Homewood, Ill.: Business One Irwin.
64. World Bank, (1989), “World Development Report 1989”, The World Bank, Washington DC.