TÜRKİYE’NİN EKSİK DIŞ TİCARETİ, TİCARİ POTANSİYELİ VE YENİ FIRSATLAR

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 1, 25 - 47, 25.06.2013

Engin Sorhun

Öz

Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin yoğun olarak dış ticaret yaptığı yedi coğrafi bölge ile potansiyeldış ticaretini belirlemeyi ve bu potansiyelin ne kadarını kullanabildiğini ortaya çıkarmayıamaçlamaktadır. Ana bulgular şu şekildedir: Bir taraftan, temel Çekim Denklemi (GravityEquation) tahminlenmek suretiyle, ikili dış ticaret hacmindeki bir değişimin temel olarakülkelerin milli gelirlerine ve ülkelerin arasındaki mesafeye bağlı olduğu, beklendiği gibi,teyit edilmiştir. Buna rağmen, önceki çalışmaların bulgularının aksine sınır komşuluğununTürkiye’nin komşularıyla ticaretine pozitif etkisi olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Diğer taraftan,Türkiye’nin dış ticaret ortaklarıyla potansiyelinin altında ticaret yaptığı ortaya çıkmıştır.Eğer Türkiye 1992-2012 döneminde ticaret potansiyelini tam olarak değerlendirseydi heryıl ortalama 65,9 milyar dolar daha fazla ihracat ve 42,9 milyar $ daha fazla ithalatyapmış olurdu. Avrupa Birliği (AB) en önemli ticari ortağı olmasına rağmen Türkiye’ninAB ile mevcut ticareti AB ile potansiyel ticaretine çok yakındır. Buna karşın, Türkiye’nin,özellikle Afrika ve Ortadoğu gibi diğer bölgeler ile mevcut ve potansiyel ticaret seviyeleriarasında büyük açık vardır. Türk dış ticaret sektörü için alternatif bölgelerde yeni fırsatlarortaya çıkaran bu durum Türkiye’nin dış pazar çeşitlendirme politikası üzerine etki etmesibeklenebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ticaret Potansiyeli, Eksik Dış Ticaret, Çekim Denklemi, AB, Akdeniz, Ortadoğu, Afrika, KEİ, Orta Asya Ülkeleri, Türkiye

TURKEY’S MISSING TRADE, POTENTIAL TRADE AND NEW OPPORTUNITIES

Öz

This study aims to determine the potential trade of Turkey with seven geographicalregions with which she intensively trades and reveals how much of this potential she uses.The main findings are as follows:On the one hand, while estimating a basic gravityequation it is confirmed that a change in the bilateral trade volume essentially depends oncountries’ national income and distance between countries as expected. Nevertheless,contrary to previous studies’ findings, it is observed that border neighbourhood has apositive effect on the trade of Turkey with her neighbour countries. On the other hand, it isrevealed that Turkey under-trades with her trade partners. If Turkey had fully used hertrade potential during 1995-2013 period, she would have effectuated $ 65,9 billion moreexport and $ 42,9 billion more imports.Although the European Union (EU) is still her most important trade partner, the actualtrade of Turkey with the EU is very close to her potential trade with the EU. On thecontrary, there is a great gap between actual and potential trade levels of Turkey with theother regions, especially Africa and Middle East. This situation that emerged newopportunities for Turkish trade sector can be expected to have impact on the foreign trademarket diversification policy of Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Whistleblowing, Ethical Climate, Egoistic Ethical Climate, Benevolent Ethical Climate, Principled Ethical Climate

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