TÜRKİYE İÇİN ENFLASYONU HIZLANDIRMAYAN İŞSİZLİK ORANI (NAIRU) TAHMİNİ

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 1, 71 - 83, 25.06.2012

M. SİNAN Temurlenk SELİM Başar

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye için Gordon’un (1997) üçlü modeline benzer bir model kullanılarak Kalman filtresi yaklaşımıyla zamanla değişen NAIRU (enflasyonu hızlandırmayan işsizlik oranı) tahmini yapılmaktadır. Araştırma dönemi (2000:1–2007:4) için fazla dalgalanmayan bir NAIRU tahmini elde edilmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen NAIRU değerleri Turner vd. (2001) tarafından hesaplanan OECD ortalamalarından yüksektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Gordon’un üçlü Modeli, NAIRU

ESTIMATING NONACCELERATING INFLATION RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT (NAIRU) FOR TURKEY

Öz

In this paper, time varying NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) is estimated with Kalman filter approach using model similar to Gordon’s (1997) triangle model for Turkey. NAIRU estimates are obtained not much volatile for the estimation period 2000:1–2007:4. NAIRU rate estimated in this study is higher from OECD average calculated by Turner et al. (2001).

Anahtar Kelimeler

Gordon’s Triangle Model, NAIRU

Kaynakça

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