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AN ESSAY UPON BUSINESS CYCLE FACTS: THE TURKISH CASE

Yıl 2006, Sayı: 16, - , 20.06.2015

Özgür Aslan H. Levent Korap

Öz

In our paper, we try to investigate the main determinants of Turkish business cycles. Having examined some important issues of interest in business cycle theory, we estimate the business cycle stylized facts for the Turkish economy and compare the estimation results obtained in this paper to some benchmark papers chosen in business cycle literature. All in all, our estimation results give support to the importance of supply side models in explaining Turkish business cycles in line with contemporaneous Real Business Cycle Theory

Anahtar Kelimeler

Business Cycles Turkish Economy Countercyclical Prices Supply-Driven Models

Kaynakça

  • Agénor, P.R., McDermott, C. J. and Prasad, E. S. (1999). “Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts”, IMF Working Paper, WP/99/35.
  • Ahmed, S., Ickes, B. W., Wang, P., and Yoo, B. S. (1993). “International Business Cycles”, American Economic Review, 83/3, June, 335-359.
  • Ahmed, S. and Park, J. H. (1994). “Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Small Open Economies”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 16/1, Winter, 1-36.
  • Akçay, O. C., Alper, C. E. and Özmucur, S. (2002). “Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt Sustainability: Evidence from Turkey (1970- 2000)”, in Kibritçioğlu, A., Rittenberg, L. and Selçuk, F., eds., Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey, Ashgate Publishing Limited, 77-96.
  • Alper, C. E. (1998). “Nominal Stylized Facts of Turkish Business Cycles”, METU Studies in Development, 25(2), 233-244.
  • Alper, C. E. (2002). “Stylized Facts of Business Cycles, Excess Volatility and Capital Flows: Evidence from Mexico and Turkey”, Russian and East European Finance and Trade, 38/4, 22-54.
  • Altuğ, N. (2001). İstikrar Politikaları ve Ülke Örnekleri, Türkmen Kitabevi.
  • Altuğ, S. and Yılmaz, K. (1998). “Asset Returns, Inflation and Real Activity The Case of Mexico and Turkey”, Boğaziçi Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, 12/1, 81-103.
  • Backus, D. K. and Kehoe, P. J. (1992). “International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles”, American Economic Review, 82/4, September, 864-888.
  • Backus, D. K., Kehoe, P. J. and Kydland, F. E. (1992). “International Real Business Cycles”, Journal of Political Economy, 100/4, August, 745- 775.
  • Backus, D. K., Kehoe, P. J. and Kydland, F. E. (1995). “International Business Cycles”, in Cooley, T. F., ed., Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, 331-356.
  • Baxter, M. and King, R. G. (1999). “Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 81, 575-593.
  • Berument, H., Kılınç, Z. and Yücel, E. M. (2005). “Business Cycles in Turkey and European Union Countries: A Perspective to the Membership”, Sosyal Ekonomi, 2005/1, Ocak-Haziran.
  • Blanchard, O. J. and Quah, D. (1989). “The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances”, American Economic Review, 79, September, 655-673.
  • Burns, A. F. and Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring Business Cycles, New York: NBER.
  • Canova, F. (1998). “Detrending and Business Cycle Facts”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 41, 475-512.
  • Cashin, P. and Ouliaris, S. (2001). “Key Features of Australian Business Cycles”, IMF Working Paper, WP/01/171, November.
  • Cashin, P. (2004). “Caribbean Business Cycles”, IMF Working Paper, WP/04/136.
  • Chadha, B. and Prasad, E. (1994). “Are Prices Countercyclical? Evidence from the G-7”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 34, 239-257.
  • Chari, V.V., Christiano, L. J., and Kehoe, P. J. (1995). “Policy Analysis in Business Cycles”, in Cooley, T. F., Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, 357-391.
  • Cogley, T. and Nason, M. J. (1995). “Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter on Trend and Difference Stationary Time Series: Implications for Business Cycle Research”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19, 253-278.
  • Davis, J. H. (2005). “An Improved Annual Chronology of U.S. Business Cycles since the 1970’s”, NBER Working Paper, w11157, February.
  • Denizer, C., Iyigun, M. F. and Owen, A. L. (2000). “Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility”, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System International Finance Discussion Papers, Number 670. June.
  • Dornbusch, R. and Fischer, S. (1994). Macroeconomics, McGraw-Hill, Inc.
  • Ertuğrul, A. and Selçuk, F. (2002). “Turkish Economy 1980-2001”, in Kibritçioğlu, A. Rittenberg, L. and Selçuk, F., Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey, Ashgate Publishing Company, 13-40.
  • Fiorito, R. and Kollintzas, T. (1994). “Stylized Facts of Business Cycles in the G-7 from a Real Business Cycles Perspective”, European Economic Review, 38, 235-269.
  • Hodrick, R. J. and Prescott, E. C. (1997). “Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29, 1- 16.
  • Hoffmaister, A. W. and Roldós, J. E. (1997). “Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?”, IMF Working Paper, WP/97/9, January.
  • Juglar, C. (1889). Des Crises Commerciales et de leur Retour Periodique en France, en Angleterre et aux États-Unis, Guillaumin, Paris.
  • Kim, Y. W. (1996). “Are Prices Countercyclical? Evidence from East Asian Countries”, FRB of St. Louis Review, September/October, 69-82.
  • King, R. G. and Rebelo, S. T. (1993). “Low Frequency Filtering and Real Business Cycles”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 17, 207- 231.
  • King, R. G. and Plosser, C. I. (1984). “Money, Credit and Prices in a Real Business Cycle”, American Economic Review, 74/3, June, 363-380.
  • Kitchin, J. (1923). “Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 5, 10-17.
  • Kuznets, S. (1958). “Long Swings in the Growth of Population and in Related Economic Variables”, Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 102, 25-57.
  • Kydland, F. E. and Prescott, E. C. (1982). “Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations”, Econometrica, 50/6, 1345-1370.
  • Kydland, F. E. and Prescott, E. C. (1990). “Business Cycles: Real Facts and a Monetary Myth”, FRB of Minneapolis Ouarterly Review, Spring, 3-18.
  • Kydland , F. E. and Prescott, E. C. (1991). “The Econometrics of the General Equilibrium Approach to Business Cycles”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 93/2, 161-178.
  • Kydland, F. E. and Zarazaga, C. E. J. M. (1997). “Is the Business Cycle of Argentina “Different”?”, FRB of Dallas Economic Review, Fourth Quarter, 21-36.
  • Long, J. B., Jr., and Plosser, C. I. (1983). “Real Business Cycles”, Journal of Political Economy, 91/1, February, 39-69.
  • Lopez, H., Fabrizio, S., and Ubide, A. (1997). “How Long is the Long Run? A Dynamic Analysis of the Spanish Business Cycle”, IMF Working Paper, WP/97/74, June.
  • Lucas, R. E., Jr., (1977). Understanding Business Cycles, in Brunner K. and
  • Meltzer, A.H., eds., Stabilization of the Domestic and International Economy, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 5, North
  • Holland, Amsterdam, 7-29.
  • Lucas, R. E., Jr., (1981). “Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique”, in
  • Lucas, R.E., Jr., ed., Studies in Business-Cycle Theory, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England, 104-130.
  • Metin-Özcan, K., Voyvoda, E., and Yeldan, E. (2001). “Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment in a Globalized Developing Economy: Growth, Accumulation and Distribution, Turkey 1969-1998”, Canadian Journal of Development Studies, 22/1, 217-253.
  • Özmucur, S. (1987). “Türk Ekonomisinde Eğilim, Dalgalanma ve Referans Tarihlerinin Belirlenmesi Üzerine Bir Deneme, 1923-1987”, Boğaziçi University Institute of Social Sciences Research Paper, No. SBE/E 88- 07.
  • Plosser, C. I. (1989). “Understanding Real Business Cycles”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3/3, Summer, 51-77.QMS (2004), EViews 5 User’s Guide, April.
  • Rand, J. and Tarp, F. (2002). “Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?”, World Development, 30/12, 2071-2088.
  • Rebelo, S. (2005). “Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future”, NBER Working Paper, w11401, June.
  • Romer, C. D. (1999). “Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations”, NBER Working Paper, w6948, February.
  • Serletis, A. and Krause, D. (1996). “Nominal Sytlized Facts of U.S. Business Cycles”, FRB of St. Louis Review, July/August, 49-54.
  • Sims, C. A. (1980). “Macroeconomics and Reality,” Econometrica, 48/1, January, 1-48.
  • Smith, R. T. (1992). “The Cyclical Behavior of Prices”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 24/4, November, 413-430.
  • Stock, J. H. and Watson, M. W. (1998). “Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series”, NBER Working Paper, w6528, April.
  • Woitek, U. (1997). Business Cycles An International Comparison of Stylized Facts in a Historical Perspective, Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag.
  • Zarnowitz, V. and Özyıldırım, A. (2002). “Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles”, NBER Working Paper, w8736, January.

AN ESSAY UPON BUSINESS CYCLE FACTS: THE TURKISH CASE

Yıl 2006, Sayı: 16, - , 20.06.2015

Özgür Aslan H. Levent Korap

Öz

Çalışmamızda, Türk iç çevrimlerinin başlıca belirleyicileri araştırılmaya çalışılmaktadır. İş çevrim kuramlarının önemli bulunan bazı özellikleri açıklandıktan sonra Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine bir deneme gerçekleştirilmiş ve elde edilen tahmin sonuçları iktisat yazınında iş çevrim kuramlarının oluşumunu ortaya koyan başlıca çalışmalarda elde edilen tahmin sonuçları ile karşılaştırılmıştır. Sonuç olarak, tahmin bulgularımız çağdaş reel iş çevrim kuramını destekler nitelikte sonuçlar üretmiş, Türk iç çevrimlerini açıklamaya yönelik arzyönlü oluşturulacak kuramsal ve uygulama içerikli çalışmaların önemi vurgulanmıştır

Anahtar Kelimeler

İş Çevrimleri Türkiye Ekonomisi Tersçevrimsel Fiyatlar Arz-Yanlı Modeller

Kaynakça

  • Agénor, P.R., McDermott, C. J. and Prasad, E. S. (1999). “Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts”, IMF Working Paper, WP/99/35.
  • Ahmed, S., Ickes, B. W., Wang, P., and Yoo, B. S. (1993). “International Business Cycles”, American Economic Review, 83/3, June, 335-359.
  • Ahmed, S. and Park, J. H. (1994). “Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Small Open Economies”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 16/1, Winter, 1-36.
  • Akçay, O. C., Alper, C. E. and Özmucur, S. (2002). “Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt Sustainability: Evidence from Turkey (1970- 2000)”, in Kibritçioğlu, A., Rittenberg, L. and Selçuk, F., eds., Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey, Ashgate Publishing Limited, 77-96.
  • Alper, C. E. (1998). “Nominal Stylized Facts of Turkish Business Cycles”, METU Studies in Development, 25(2), 233-244.
  • Alper, C. E. (2002). “Stylized Facts of Business Cycles, Excess Volatility and Capital Flows: Evidence from Mexico and Turkey”, Russian and East European Finance and Trade, 38/4, 22-54.
  • Altuğ, N. (2001). İstikrar Politikaları ve Ülke Örnekleri, Türkmen Kitabevi.
  • Altuğ, S. and Yılmaz, K. (1998). “Asset Returns, Inflation and Real Activity The Case of Mexico and Turkey”, Boğaziçi Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, 12/1, 81-103.
  • Backus, D. K. and Kehoe, P. J. (1992). “International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles”, American Economic Review, 82/4, September, 864-888.
  • Backus, D. K., Kehoe, P. J. and Kydland, F. E. (1992). “International Real Business Cycles”, Journal of Political Economy, 100/4, August, 745- 775.
  • Backus, D. K., Kehoe, P. J. and Kydland, F. E. (1995). “International Business Cycles”, in Cooley, T. F., ed., Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, 331-356.
  • Baxter, M. and King, R. G. (1999). “Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 81, 575-593.
  • Berument, H., Kılınç, Z. and Yücel, E. M. (2005). “Business Cycles in Turkey and European Union Countries: A Perspective to the Membership”, Sosyal Ekonomi, 2005/1, Ocak-Haziran.
  • Blanchard, O. J. and Quah, D. (1989). “The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances”, American Economic Review, 79, September, 655-673.
  • Burns, A. F. and Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring Business Cycles, New York: NBER.
  • Canova, F. (1998). “Detrending and Business Cycle Facts”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 41, 475-512.
  • Cashin, P. and Ouliaris, S. (2001). “Key Features of Australian Business Cycles”, IMF Working Paper, WP/01/171, November.
  • Cashin, P. (2004). “Caribbean Business Cycles”, IMF Working Paper, WP/04/136.
  • Chadha, B. and Prasad, E. (1994). “Are Prices Countercyclical? Evidence from the G-7”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 34, 239-257.
  • Chari, V.V., Christiano, L. J., and Kehoe, P. J. (1995). “Policy Analysis in Business Cycles”, in Cooley, T. F., Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, 357-391.
  • Cogley, T. and Nason, M. J. (1995). “Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter on Trend and Difference Stationary Time Series: Implications for Business Cycle Research”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19, 253-278.
  • Davis, J. H. (2005). “An Improved Annual Chronology of U.S. Business Cycles since the 1970’s”, NBER Working Paper, w11157, February.
  • Denizer, C., Iyigun, M. F. and Owen, A. L. (2000). “Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility”, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System International Finance Discussion Papers, Number 670. June.
  • Dornbusch, R. and Fischer, S. (1994). Macroeconomics, McGraw-Hill, Inc.
  • Ertuğrul, A. and Selçuk, F. (2002). “Turkish Economy 1980-2001”, in Kibritçioğlu, A. Rittenberg, L. and Selçuk, F., Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey, Ashgate Publishing Company, 13-40.
  • Fiorito, R. and Kollintzas, T. (1994). “Stylized Facts of Business Cycles in the G-7 from a Real Business Cycles Perspective”, European Economic Review, 38, 235-269.
  • Hodrick, R. J. and Prescott, E. C. (1997). “Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29, 1- 16.
  • Hoffmaister, A. W. and Roldós, J. E. (1997). “Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?”, IMF Working Paper, WP/97/9, January.
  • Juglar, C. (1889). Des Crises Commerciales et de leur Retour Periodique en France, en Angleterre et aux États-Unis, Guillaumin, Paris.
  • Kim, Y. W. (1996). “Are Prices Countercyclical? Evidence from East Asian Countries”, FRB of St. Louis Review, September/October, 69-82.
  • King, R. G. and Rebelo, S. T. (1993). “Low Frequency Filtering and Real Business Cycles”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 17, 207- 231.
  • King, R. G. and Plosser, C. I. (1984). “Money, Credit and Prices in a Real Business Cycle”, American Economic Review, 74/3, June, 363-380.
  • Kitchin, J. (1923). “Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 5, 10-17.
  • Kuznets, S. (1958). “Long Swings in the Growth of Population and in Related Economic Variables”, Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 102, 25-57.
  • Kydland, F. E. and Prescott, E. C. (1982). “Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations”, Econometrica, 50/6, 1345-1370.
  • Kydland, F. E. and Prescott, E. C. (1990). “Business Cycles: Real Facts and a Monetary Myth”, FRB of Minneapolis Ouarterly Review, Spring, 3-18.
  • Kydland , F. E. and Prescott, E. C. (1991). “The Econometrics of the General Equilibrium Approach to Business Cycles”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 93/2, 161-178.
  • Kydland, F. E. and Zarazaga, C. E. J. M. (1997). “Is the Business Cycle of Argentina “Different”?”, FRB of Dallas Economic Review, Fourth Quarter, 21-36.
  • Long, J. B., Jr., and Plosser, C. I. (1983). “Real Business Cycles”, Journal of Political Economy, 91/1, February, 39-69.
  • Lopez, H., Fabrizio, S., and Ubide, A. (1997). “How Long is the Long Run? A Dynamic Analysis of the Spanish Business Cycle”, IMF Working Paper, WP/97/74, June.
  • Lucas, R. E., Jr., (1977). Understanding Business Cycles, in Brunner K. and
  • Meltzer, A.H., eds., Stabilization of the Domestic and International Economy, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 5, North
  • Holland, Amsterdam, 7-29.
  • Lucas, R. E., Jr., (1981). “Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique”, in
  • Lucas, R.E., Jr., ed., Studies in Business-Cycle Theory, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England, 104-130.
  • Metin-Özcan, K., Voyvoda, E., and Yeldan, E. (2001). “Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment in a Globalized Developing Economy: Growth, Accumulation and Distribution, Turkey 1969-1998”, Canadian Journal of Development Studies, 22/1, 217-253.
  • Özmucur, S. (1987). “Türk Ekonomisinde Eğilim, Dalgalanma ve Referans Tarihlerinin Belirlenmesi Üzerine Bir Deneme, 1923-1987”, Boğaziçi University Institute of Social Sciences Research Paper, No. SBE/E 88- 07.
  • Plosser, C. I. (1989). “Understanding Real Business Cycles”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3/3, Summer, 51-77.QMS (2004), EViews 5 User’s Guide, April.
  • Rand, J. and Tarp, F. (2002). “Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?”, World Development, 30/12, 2071-2088.
  • Rebelo, S. (2005). “Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future”, NBER Working Paper, w11401, June.
  • Romer, C. D. (1999). “Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations”, NBER Working Paper, w6948, February.
  • Serletis, A. and Krause, D. (1996). “Nominal Sytlized Facts of U.S. Business Cycles”, FRB of St. Louis Review, July/August, 49-54.
  • Sims, C. A. (1980). “Macroeconomics and Reality,” Econometrica, 48/1, January, 1-48.
  • Smith, R. T. (1992). “The Cyclical Behavior of Prices”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 24/4, November, 413-430.
  • Stock, J. H. and Watson, M. W. (1998). “Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series”, NBER Working Paper, w6528, April.
  • Woitek, U. (1997). Business Cycles An International Comparison of Stylized Facts in a Historical Perspective, Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag.
  • Zarnowitz, V. and Özyıldırım, A. (2002). “Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles”, NBER Working Paper, w8736, January.
Toplam 57 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Özgür Aslan Bu kişi benim

H. Levent Korap Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 20 Haziran 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2006 Sayı: 16

Kaynak Göster

APA Aslan, Ö., & Korap, H. L. (2015). AN ESSAY UPON BUSINESS CYCLE FACTS: THE TURKISH CASE. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi(16).
AMA Aslan Ö, Korap HL. AN ESSAY UPON BUSINESS CYCLE FACTS: THE TURKISH CASE. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. Haziran 2015;(16).
Chicago Aslan, Özgür, ve H. Levent Korap. “AN ESSAY UPON BUSINESS CYCLE FACTS: THE TURKISH CASE”. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, sy. 16 (Haziran 2015).
EndNote Aslan Ö, Korap HL (01 Haziran 2015) AN ESSAY UPON BUSINESS CYCLE FACTS: THE TURKISH CASE. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 16
IEEE Ö. Aslan ve H. L. Korap, “AN ESSAY UPON BUSINESS CYCLE FACTS: THE TURKISH CASE”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, sy. 16, Haziran 2015.
ISNAD Aslan, Özgür - Korap, H. Levent. “AN ESSAY UPON BUSINESS CYCLE FACTS: THE TURKISH CASE”. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 16 (Haziran 2015).
JAMA Aslan Ö, Korap HL. AN ESSAY UPON BUSINESS CYCLE FACTS: THE TURKISH CASE. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 2015.
MLA Aslan, Özgür ve H. Levent Korap. “AN ESSAY UPON BUSINESS CYCLE FACTS: THE TURKISH CASE”. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, sy. 16, 2015.
Vancouver Aslan Ö, Korap HL. AN ESSAY UPON BUSINESS CYCLE FACTS: THE TURKISH CASE. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 2015(16).

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