THE EFFECT OF CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Öz

This paper examines the impact of output gap on current account balance for 27 countries over 1980–2013 period, using panel data analysis. The paper analyses also the determinants of current account balance. We find that current account balance is negatively correlated with output gap. However, the findings associated with public budget balance, trade openness, financial openness, market capitalization, saving ratio, institutional variables show that there are statistically significant and positive effects on the current account balance. On the other hand, domestic credits to private sector, real effective exchange rate and dependency ratios have statistically significant and negative effect on current account balance.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Capacity Utilization Rate, Output Gap, Current Account Balance, Macroeconomics, Panel Data Analysis

KAPASİTE KULLANIM ORANININ CARİ İŞLEMLER DENGESİNE ETKİSİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışma, cari işlemler dengesine çıktı açığının etkisini 27 ülkenin 1980–2013 dönemi yıllık verileri ile panel veri analizi yöntemi kullanılarak açıklamaktadır. Bununla birlikte, çalışma cari işlemler dengesinin belirleyicilerini de analiz etmektedir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre; çıktı açığı ile cari işlemler dengesi arasında negatif yönlü güçlü bir ilişki elde edilmiştir. Ayrıca kamu sektörü bütçe dengesi, ticari açıklık, finansal açıklık, hisse senedi piyasalarında bulunan firmaların piyasa değeri, tasarruf oranı ve kurumsal değişkenler cari işlemler dengesi üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif yönlü bir etkiye sahip olmuştur. Diğer taraftan; özel sektöre verilen yerli krediler, reel efektif döviz kuru ve bağımlılık oranları cari işlemler dengesi üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve negatif yönlü bir etkiye neden olmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kapasite Kullanım Oranı, Çıktı Açığı, Cari İşlemler Dengesi, Makroekonomi, Panel Veri Analizi

Kaynakça

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