Araştırma Makalesi
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The Impact of earthquake risk upon housing prices in the riverbeds: Istanbul Sample

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 11 - 31, 30.04.2019

Öz

This essay attempts to answer the question to what extent the impact of
earthquake risk upon housing prices differs between high-risk and low-risk
areas in riverbeds in Istanbul, where the devastation of the 1999 Kocaeli
earthquake was quite significant and a new earthquake with a magnitude greater
than 7 is considered to be highly probable to take place before 2034. This
research, conducted 16 years after the earthquake, rests upon the statistical
analysis of the prices of the residential units located in the visible risky
riverbeds commonly found all over Istanbul and of those with the same
attributes in the neighboring areas. The geological maps designate nearly
250-meter-long areas lying both to the left-hand and right-hand sides of the
thalwegs of the four riverbeds in the center of Istanbul as high-risk zones,
and those areas between nearly 250 and 500 meters to the left and right of the
thalwegs as low-risk zones. The central question of the article is whether
earthquake risk has any impact on housing prices in the riverbed areas in
Istanbul, and if it does, what the price differentials are. The prices of
residential units on a number of buildings whose locations are checked on the
geological map are examined using compare means analysis and regression analysis.
Both types of statistical analysis yield the same results: the earthquake risk
has a negative impact on two areas, while one area shows no price changes due
to this risk, and the dwellings on one high-risk zone have higher prices. It
has been found out that the change in housing prices occurs depending on the
housing submarkets in the riverbeds. Moreover, in those areas where the price
differentials are found to exist, the impact rate varies. The essay compares
the findings of the two types of statistical analysis as well as demonstrating
which variables are effective on the homogeneous submarkets formed through
cluster analysis. The results of this study can be employed in similar research
aiming to calculate the impact of earthquake risk or the change in the risk
perception on housing prices

Kaynakça

  • Kasapoğlu, A., Ecevit, M., Impact of the 1999 East Marmara Earthquake in Turkey. Population and Environment, Vol. 24, No. 4, pp. 339-358, DOI: 10.1023/A:1022453722574, 2003.
  • Meade, B.J. Hager, B.H., McClusky, S.C., Reilinger, R.E., Ergintav, S., Lenk, O., Barka, A., Özener, H., Estimates of Seismic Potential in the Marmara Region from Block Models of Secular Deformation Constrained by GPS Measurements. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 92, No. 1, pp. 208-215, DOI: 10.1785/0120000837, 2002.
  • Şengör A.M.C., Tüysüz, O., İmren, C., Sakınç, M., Eyidoğan, H., Görür, N., Le Pichon, X., Rangin, C., The North Anatolian Fault: A new look. Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., Vol. 33, pp. 37-112, DOI: 10.1146/annurev.earth.32.101802.120415, 2004.
  • Stein, R.S., Barka, A., Dieterich, J.H., Progressive failure on the North Anatolian Fault since 1989 by earthquake stress triggering. Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 128, pp. 594-604, DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb05321.x, 1997.
  • Barka, A., The 17 August 1999 İzmit Earthquake. Article in Science (September 285(5435:1858-1859, DOI: 10.1126/science.285.5435.1858, 1999.
  • Hubert-Ferrari, A., Armijo, R., King, G., Meyer, B., Barka, A., Morphology, displacement, and slip rates along the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey. Journal of Geophysical Researched. V. 107, No. B10, ETG 9-1- ETG 9-33, DOI: 10.1029/2001JB000393, 2002.
  • Parsons, T.S., Toda T.S., Stein R.S., Barka, A., Dietrich, J.H., Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul, an interaction-based probability calculation. Science, Vol. 288, No. 5466, pp. 661-665, DOI: 10.1126/science.288.5466.661, 2000.
  • Parsons, T., Recalculated probability of M>7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 109, No. 5, DOI: 10.1029/2003JB002667, 2004.
  • TÜİK, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu. Available at [On-line]: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/Start.do., 2016.
  • Demir, H., Batuk, F., Emem, O., Sengezer, B., The Relations Between Earthquake and Planning for Istanbul. FIG Working Week 14-19 June 2008.
  • Yomralıoğlu,T., Kentsel Alan Düzenlemelerinde İmar Planı Uygulama Teknikleri. Akademi Kitabevi, Trabzon. ISBN:975-95396-2-4, 1997.
  • Basu, S., Thibodeau, T.G., Analysis of spatial autocorrelation in house prices. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 61-85, DOI: 10.1023/A:1007703229507, 1998.
  • Bourassa, S.C., Cantoni, E. and Hoesli, M., Spatial dependence, housing submarkets, and house price prediction. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 35, No. 2, pp. 143-160, DOI: 10.1007/s11146-007-9036-8, 2007.
  • Kiel, K. A., Zobel, J. E., House price differentials in U.S. cities: Household and neighborhood effects. Journal of Housing Economics, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 143-165, DOI: 10.1006/jhec.1996.0008, 1996.
  • Olmo, J. C., Spatial estimation of housing prices and locational rents. Urban Studies, V.32, No.8, pp. 1331-1344, DOI: 10.1080/00420989550012492, 1995.
  • Vandell, K., D., Market Factors Affecting Spatial Heterogeneity Among Urban Neighborhoods. Housing Policy Debate, V. 6, No. 1, pp. 103-139, DOI: 10.1080/10511482.1995.9521183, 1995.
  • Adair, A., Berry, J. and McGreal, W.S. Hedonic modelling, housing submarkets and residetial valuation, Journal of Property Research, 13(1, pp. 67-83, 1996.
  • Bourassa, S.C., Hamelink, F., Hoesli, M. and MacGregor, B. Defining housing submarkets, Journal of Housing Economics, 8(2, pp. 160-183, 1999.
  • Watkins, C. The definition and identification of housing submarkets, Environment and Planning A, 33(12, pp. 2235-2253, 2001.
  • Keskin, B., Watkins, C., Defining spatial housing submarkets: Exploring the case for expert delineated boundaries. Urban Studies Journal Limited 2016, pp.1-17 DOI: 10.1177/0042098015620351, 2016.
  • Straszheim, M. R., An Economic Analysis of the Housing Market. Washington, DC: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1975.
  • Eurostat, Handbook on Residential Property Prices Indices (RPPIs. Luxembourg, Publication Office of European Union, 2013.
  • Önder, Z., Dökmeci, V., Keskin, B., The Impact of Public Perception of Earthquake Risk on Istanbul's Housing Market. Journal of Real Estate Literature, Vol. 12, No. 2; pp. 181-194, DOI: 10.5555/reli.12.2.56393226t1731w27, 2004.
  • Palm, R., Natural Hazards: An Integrative Framework for Research and Planning. The Johns Hopkins University Press (December 1, 1989. ISBN-13: 978-0801838668, 1989.
  • Murdoch, J. C., Singh H., Thayer M., The Impact of Natural Hazards on Housing Values: The Loma Prieta Earthquake. Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, Vol. 21, No. 2, pp. 167-84, DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00606, 1993.
  • Choy, Lennon H.T., Stephen W. K. Mak, and Winky K. O. Ho. Modeling Hong Kong Real Estate Prices, Journal of Housing and Built Environment, 22, 359-368, 2007.
  • Conroy, Stephen, Andrew Narwold and Jonathan Sandy. The value of a floor: valuing floor level in high-rise condominiums in San Diego. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Vol. 6 No. 2, pp. 197-208, 2013.
  • Tabachnick, B. G., and Fidell, L. S. Using multivariate statistics, 5th ed. Boston: Pearson. ISBN: 0-205-45938-2, 2007.
  • Özdamar, K., Paket Programlar ile İstatistiksel Veri Analizi (Çok Değişkenli Analizler. Kaan Kitabevi, Eskişehir. ISBN:975-6787-00-7, 2002.
  • Sümbüloğlu, V., Sümbüloğlu, K., Örnekleme. Ankara. ISBN: 975- 93883-1-6, 2005.
  • Akdağ, B., Sümbüloğlu, K., Önemlilik Testleri. Hatiboğlu, Ankara. ISBN:978-975- 8322-36-7, 2010.
  • Montgomery, D.C., Peck, E.A., Vining, G.G., Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis. Nobel (5. Basımdan Çeviri, Ankara. ISBN:978-605-133-618-3, 2013.
  • Ozus, E., Dökmeci, V., Kiroglu, G., Egdemir, G., Spatial Analysis of Residential Prices in Istanbul. European Planning Studies, Vol. 15, No. 5, pp. 707-721, DOI: 10.1080/09654310701214085, 2007.
  • MacLennan, D., Munro, M. & Wood, G., Housing choices and the structure of housing markets. Scandinavian Housing and Planning Research, V. 4, No. 1, pp. 26-52, DOI: 10.1080/02815737.1987.10801423, 1987.
  • Thibodeau, T. G., Marking single-family property values to markets. Real Estate Economics, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 1-22, DOI: 10.1111/j.1080-8620.2003.00055.x, 2003.
  • Willis, K. G., Asgary, A., The Impact of Earthquake Risk on Housing Markets: Evidence from Tehran Real Estate Agents. Journal of Housing Research, V. 8, No. 1, 125-36, 1997.
  • Keskin, B., Dunning, R., Watkins, C., Modelling the impact of earthquake activity on real estate values: a multi-level approach. Journal of European Real Estate Research, Vol. 10, N: 1, pp.73-90 DOI: 10.1108/JERER-03-2016-0014, 2016.
  • Keskin, B., Hedonic Analysis of Price in the Istanbul Housing Market. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 125-138, DOI: 10.3846/1648-715X.2008.12.125-138, 2008.
Yıl 2019, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 11 - 31, 30.04.2019

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Kasapoğlu, A., Ecevit, M., Impact of the 1999 East Marmara Earthquake in Turkey. Population and Environment, Vol. 24, No. 4, pp. 339-358, DOI: 10.1023/A:1022453722574, 2003.
  • Meade, B.J. Hager, B.H., McClusky, S.C., Reilinger, R.E., Ergintav, S., Lenk, O., Barka, A., Özener, H., Estimates of Seismic Potential in the Marmara Region from Block Models of Secular Deformation Constrained by GPS Measurements. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 92, No. 1, pp. 208-215, DOI: 10.1785/0120000837, 2002.
  • Şengör A.M.C., Tüysüz, O., İmren, C., Sakınç, M., Eyidoğan, H., Görür, N., Le Pichon, X., Rangin, C., The North Anatolian Fault: A new look. Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., Vol. 33, pp. 37-112, DOI: 10.1146/annurev.earth.32.101802.120415, 2004.
  • Stein, R.S., Barka, A., Dieterich, J.H., Progressive failure on the North Anatolian Fault since 1989 by earthquake stress triggering. Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 128, pp. 594-604, DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb05321.x, 1997.
  • Barka, A., The 17 August 1999 İzmit Earthquake. Article in Science (September 285(5435:1858-1859, DOI: 10.1126/science.285.5435.1858, 1999.
  • Hubert-Ferrari, A., Armijo, R., King, G., Meyer, B., Barka, A., Morphology, displacement, and slip rates along the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey. Journal of Geophysical Researched. V. 107, No. B10, ETG 9-1- ETG 9-33, DOI: 10.1029/2001JB000393, 2002.
  • Parsons, T.S., Toda T.S., Stein R.S., Barka, A., Dietrich, J.H., Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul, an interaction-based probability calculation. Science, Vol. 288, No. 5466, pp. 661-665, DOI: 10.1126/science.288.5466.661, 2000.
  • Parsons, T., Recalculated probability of M>7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 109, No. 5, DOI: 10.1029/2003JB002667, 2004.
  • TÜİK, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu. Available at [On-line]: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/Start.do., 2016.
  • Demir, H., Batuk, F., Emem, O., Sengezer, B., The Relations Between Earthquake and Planning for Istanbul. FIG Working Week 14-19 June 2008.
  • Yomralıoğlu,T., Kentsel Alan Düzenlemelerinde İmar Planı Uygulama Teknikleri. Akademi Kitabevi, Trabzon. ISBN:975-95396-2-4, 1997.
  • Basu, S., Thibodeau, T.G., Analysis of spatial autocorrelation in house prices. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 61-85, DOI: 10.1023/A:1007703229507, 1998.
  • Bourassa, S.C., Cantoni, E. and Hoesli, M., Spatial dependence, housing submarkets, and house price prediction. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 35, No. 2, pp. 143-160, DOI: 10.1007/s11146-007-9036-8, 2007.
  • Kiel, K. A., Zobel, J. E., House price differentials in U.S. cities: Household and neighborhood effects. Journal of Housing Economics, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 143-165, DOI: 10.1006/jhec.1996.0008, 1996.
  • Olmo, J. C., Spatial estimation of housing prices and locational rents. Urban Studies, V.32, No.8, pp. 1331-1344, DOI: 10.1080/00420989550012492, 1995.
  • Vandell, K., D., Market Factors Affecting Spatial Heterogeneity Among Urban Neighborhoods. Housing Policy Debate, V. 6, No. 1, pp. 103-139, DOI: 10.1080/10511482.1995.9521183, 1995.
  • Adair, A., Berry, J. and McGreal, W.S. Hedonic modelling, housing submarkets and residetial valuation, Journal of Property Research, 13(1, pp. 67-83, 1996.
  • Bourassa, S.C., Hamelink, F., Hoesli, M. and MacGregor, B. Defining housing submarkets, Journal of Housing Economics, 8(2, pp. 160-183, 1999.
  • Watkins, C. The definition and identification of housing submarkets, Environment and Planning A, 33(12, pp. 2235-2253, 2001.
  • Keskin, B., Watkins, C., Defining spatial housing submarkets: Exploring the case for expert delineated boundaries. Urban Studies Journal Limited 2016, pp.1-17 DOI: 10.1177/0042098015620351, 2016.
  • Straszheim, M. R., An Economic Analysis of the Housing Market. Washington, DC: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1975.
  • Eurostat, Handbook on Residential Property Prices Indices (RPPIs. Luxembourg, Publication Office of European Union, 2013.
  • Önder, Z., Dökmeci, V., Keskin, B., The Impact of Public Perception of Earthquake Risk on Istanbul's Housing Market. Journal of Real Estate Literature, Vol. 12, No. 2; pp. 181-194, DOI: 10.5555/reli.12.2.56393226t1731w27, 2004.
  • Palm, R., Natural Hazards: An Integrative Framework for Research and Planning. The Johns Hopkins University Press (December 1, 1989. ISBN-13: 978-0801838668, 1989.
  • Murdoch, J. C., Singh H., Thayer M., The Impact of Natural Hazards on Housing Values: The Loma Prieta Earthquake. Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, Vol. 21, No. 2, pp. 167-84, DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00606, 1993.
  • Choy, Lennon H.T., Stephen W. K. Mak, and Winky K. O. Ho. Modeling Hong Kong Real Estate Prices, Journal of Housing and Built Environment, 22, 359-368, 2007.
  • Conroy, Stephen, Andrew Narwold and Jonathan Sandy. The value of a floor: valuing floor level in high-rise condominiums in San Diego. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Vol. 6 No. 2, pp. 197-208, 2013.
  • Tabachnick, B. G., and Fidell, L. S. Using multivariate statistics, 5th ed. Boston: Pearson. ISBN: 0-205-45938-2, 2007.
  • Özdamar, K., Paket Programlar ile İstatistiksel Veri Analizi (Çok Değişkenli Analizler. Kaan Kitabevi, Eskişehir. ISBN:975-6787-00-7, 2002.
  • Sümbüloğlu, V., Sümbüloğlu, K., Örnekleme. Ankara. ISBN: 975- 93883-1-6, 2005.
  • Akdağ, B., Sümbüloğlu, K., Önemlilik Testleri. Hatiboğlu, Ankara. ISBN:978-975- 8322-36-7, 2010.
  • Montgomery, D.C., Peck, E.A., Vining, G.G., Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis. Nobel (5. Basımdan Çeviri, Ankara. ISBN:978-605-133-618-3, 2013.
  • Ozus, E., Dökmeci, V., Kiroglu, G., Egdemir, G., Spatial Analysis of Residential Prices in Istanbul. European Planning Studies, Vol. 15, No. 5, pp. 707-721, DOI: 10.1080/09654310701214085, 2007.
  • MacLennan, D., Munro, M. & Wood, G., Housing choices and the structure of housing markets. Scandinavian Housing and Planning Research, V. 4, No. 1, pp. 26-52, DOI: 10.1080/02815737.1987.10801423, 1987.
  • Thibodeau, T. G., Marking single-family property values to markets. Real Estate Economics, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 1-22, DOI: 10.1111/j.1080-8620.2003.00055.x, 2003.
  • Willis, K. G., Asgary, A., The Impact of Earthquake Risk on Housing Markets: Evidence from Tehran Real Estate Agents. Journal of Housing Research, V. 8, No. 1, 125-36, 1997.
  • Keskin, B., Dunning, R., Watkins, C., Modelling the impact of earthquake activity on real estate values: a multi-level approach. Journal of European Real Estate Research, Vol. 10, N: 1, pp.73-90 DOI: 10.1108/JERER-03-2016-0014, 2016.
  • Keskin, B., Hedonic Analysis of Price in the Istanbul Housing Market. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 125-138, DOI: 10.3846/1648-715X.2008.12.125-138, 2008.
Toplam 38 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Mühendislik
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Birol Alas

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Nisan 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2019 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

Chicago Alas, Birol. “The Impact of Earthquake Risk Upon Housing Prices in the Riverbeds: Istanbul Sample”. Disaster Science and Engineering 5, sy. 1 (Nisan 2019): 11-31.