Türkiye’de Telekomünikasyon Hizmetlerinin Yayılımı

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 4, 497 - 510, 01.09.2012

Mehmet Karaçuka Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık

Öz

Bu çalışmada alternatif ürün büyüme modellerinin Türkiye’deki telekomünikasyon hizmetlerini öngörü gücü değerlendirilmiştir. Değişken üstel büyüme modeli sabit hatlardaki yayılma sürecini daha iyi açıklaması, S-şekilli modellerin ürünün olgunluk döneminin modellenmesinde yetersiz kaldıklarını göstermektedir. Ancak, Gompertz modeli mobil hatların yayılma sürecinin açıklanmasında daha üstün görünmektedir. Sonuçlar büyüme eğrilerinin öngörü gücünün, piyasaların karakteristikleri ve rekabetçi yapılarındaki farklılıklara göre değiştiğini göstermektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Telekomünikasyon, öngörü, yeniliklerin yayılımı, S-şekilli büyüme eğrileri

Diffusion of Telecommunication Services in Turkey

Öz

This paper evaluates the forecasting ability of alternative product growth models for telecommunication services in Turkey. The variable exponential growth model better explains the diffusion process of fixed line services, suggesting that S-shaped models are not able to model the period of the maturity stage. However, the Gompertz model is superior in explaining the diffusion process of mobile line services. Results suggest that forecasting ability of growth curves depends on the differences in characteristics and the competitive structures of the markets

Anahtar Kelimeler

Telecommunications, forecasting, diffusion of innovations, S-shaped growth curves

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