TÜRKİYE’DE BORÇ DÖNGÜSÜ: DÜŞÜK BORÇ – YÜKSEK KIRILGANLIK PARADOKSU

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 18 Sayı: 1, 1 - 29, 05.01.2026

Cem Dişbudak , Güngör Pabuşçu

https://doi.org/10.55827/ebd.1795856

Öz

Öz
Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin borçlanma dinamiklerini ekonomi ile siyaset arasındaki çift yönlü etkileşim bağlamında incelemektedir. 1980 sonrası dönemde kamu, özel sektör ve hanehalkı borçluluğunda gözlenen artış, yalnızca ekonomik göstergelerle sınırlı kalmamış; uluslararası sermaye hareketleri ve ülke içi siyasal stratejiler aracılığıyla doğrudan etkili olmuştur. Türkiye’de borç politikaları seçim ekonomileri, popülist maliye politikaları ve uluslararası finansal kuruluşlarla yapılan anlaşmalar aracılığıyla şekillenmiş; özellikle IMF ve Dünya Bankası gözetimindeki programlarla daha da kurumsallaşmıştır. Ülkelerin artan borçlanma gereksinimlerinin yalnızca borçluluk oranları değil, genel makroekonomik faktörlerle birlikte değerlendirilmesi gerekir. Bu amaçla, bu makalede borçluluk göstergeleri dışında kalan ama ekonomilerin genel durumu ve borçluluk hakkında fikir verebilecek değişkenler kullanılarak bir Borç Kırılganlık Endeksi (BKE) oluşturulmuştur. Bu endeks kullanılarak kamu dış borcu, hanehalkı borcu ve toplam borç oranlarına ilişkin kırılganlıklar ayrıntılı olarak değerlendirilmiş ve 2010–2023 dönemi uluslararası karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular, Türkiye’nin görece düşük borçluluk oranlarına rağmen yüksek kırılganlık taşıdığını ve borçlanma döngüsünün ekonomik olduğu kadar siyasal bir strateji işlevi de gördüğünü ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Borç Döngüsü , Türkiye , Dış Borç , Hanehalkı Borçluluğu , Borç Kırılganlık Endeksi (BKE)

Etik Beyan

Bu çalışmada bilimsel araştırma ve yayın etiği ilkelerine uyulmuştur.

Destekleyen Kurum

Destekleyen kurum yoktur

DEBT CYCLE in TURKEY: THE LOW-DEBT, HIGH-VULNERABILITY PARADOX

Öz

This study examines Turkey’s borrowing dynamics within the bidirectional interplay between the economy and politics. Since the 1980s, the rise in indebtedness across the public sector, private firms, and households has not been confined to economic indicators alone; it has been directly shaped by international capital flows and domestic political strategies. In Turkey, debt policies have been formed through election-cycle economics, populist fiscal policies, and agreements with international financial institutions, and have been further institutionalized under programs overseen by the IMF and the World Bank. Countries’ growing borrowing needs should be evaluated not only by debt ratios but also in conjunction with broader macroeconomic factors. To this end, this article constructs a Debt Vulnerability Index (DVI) using variables that lie beyond standard indebtedness indicators yet capture the general condition of the economy and provide insight into debt dynamics. Employing this index, we assess vulnerabilities related to public external debt, household debt, and total indebtedness, and conduct an international comparative analysis for the period 2010–2023. The findings indicate that, despite relatively low headline debt ratios, Turkey exhibits high vulnerability, and that the debt cycle functions as a political strategy as much as an economic one.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Debt Cycle; Turkey; External Debt; Household Indebtedness; Debt Vulnerability Index (DVI)

Etik Beyan

This study was conducted in accordance with the principles of research and publication ethics.

Destekleyen Kurum

This study received no support from any institution.

Kaynakça

• Akyüz, Y. (2017). Playing with fire: Deepened financial integration and changing vulnerabilities of the Global South. Oxford University Press.
• Akyüz, Y., & Boratav, K. (2003). “The Making of The Turkish Financial Crisis”. World Development, 31(9), 1549–1566.
• Alpar, B. I. (2022). Türkiye’de hanehalkı borçluluğuna ilişkin güncel bir değerlendirme ve hanehalkı borçluluğunun muhtemel sonuçları. Erciyes Akademi, 36(3), 1314–1346. https://doi.org/10.48070/erciyesakademi.1116082
• Anuatti-Neto, F., Barossi-Filho, M., de Carvalho, A. G., & Macedo, R. B. (2005). Costs and benefits of privatization: Evidence from Brazil. İçinde A. Chong & F. López-de-Silanes (Ed.) (Der.), Privatization in Latin America: Myths and Reality (ss. 145–196). Stanford University Press; Inter-American Development Bank; World Bank.
• BHM. (2014). Yıllık Kamu Borç Yönetimi Raporu 2014. Ankara: Başbakanlık Hazine Müsteşarlığı. https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/uploads/2018/11/Yıllık-Kamu-Borç-Yönetimi-Raporu-2014.pdf
• Boratav, K. (2003). Türkiye İktisat Tarihi 1908–2002. (7. Baskı). İmge Kitabevi.
• Calvo, G. A., Izquierdo, A., & Mejía, L.-F. (2004). On the empirics of sudden stops: The relevance of balance-sheet effects (NBER Working Paper No. 10520). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w10520
• Cömert, H., & Yeldan, E. (2018). A tale of three crises in Turkey: 1994, 2001 and 2008–09 (METU Working Paper No. 1809). Middle East Technical University. https://ideas.repec.org/p/met/wpaper/1809.html
• Crouch, C. (2009). ‘Privatised Keynesianism: An unacknowledged policy regime’. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 11(3), 382–399.
• Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., & Panizza, U. (2005). The pain of original sin. İçinde B. Eichengreen & R. Hausmann (Ed.), Other people’s money: Debt denomination and financial instability in emerging market economies (ss. 13–47). University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/9780226194578-003
• Eryılmaz, F., & Mercan, M. (2015). “Political budget cycles: Evidence from Turkey”. Annals of the “Constantin Brâncuși” University of Târgu Jiu, Economy Series, 2, 5–14.
• Flatley, D., & Gillespie, P. (2025, September 24). US readies $20 billion rescue to help Milei win in Argentina. Bloomberg News. https://news.bloomberglaw.com
• Frankel, J. A., & Rose, A. K. (1996). “Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment”. Journal of International Economics, 41(3–4), 351–366. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(96)01441-9
• Güngen, A. R. (2021). “Borçlandırma siyaseti: Türkiye’de finansal içerilme”. İletişim Yayınları.
• Harvey, D. (2005). A Brief History of Neoliberalism. Oxford University Press.
• Heavey, S., & Shalal, A. (2025, September 24). US ready to support Argentina with $20 billion swap line, Bessent says. Reuters.
• International Monetary Fund. (2001, February 16). Structural conditionality in IMF-supported programs (Policy Development and Review Dept.). https://www.imf.org/external/np/pdr/cond/2001/eng/struct/
• International Monetary Fund. (2005). Turkey: Staff report for the 2005 Article IV consultation (IMF Country Report No. 05/327). International Monetary Fund.
• International Monetary Fund. (2011). Assessing reserve adequacy [Policy paper]. International Monetary Fund.
• Kaminsky, G. L., Lizondo, S., & Reinhart, C. M. (1998). Leading indicators of currency crises. IMF Staff Papers, 45(1), 1–48. https://doi.org/10.2307/3867328
• Kaminsky, G. L., & Reinhart, C. M. (1999). “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-Of-Payments Problems”. American Economic Review, 89(3), 473–500.
• Kraemer, M. (1997). Electoral budget cycles in Latin America and the Caribbean: Incidence, causes, and political futility (IDB Working Paper). Inter-American Development Bank.
• Öniş, Z. (1991). “The logic of the developmental state”. Comparative Politics, 24(1), 109–126. https://doi.org/10.2307/422204
• Öniş, Z. (2009). “Beyond the 2001 financial crisis: The political economy of the new phase of neo-liberal restructuring in Turkey”. Review of International Political Economy, 16(3), 409–432. https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290802408642
• Öniş, Z., & Şenses, F. (2007). “Global Dynamics, Domestic Coalitions and a Reactive State”. METU Studies in Development, 34(2), 251–286.
• Özata, E. (2013). “Macroeconomic impacts of privatization: The case of Turkey”. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 2(4), 128–146. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2013.324
• Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2009). This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press.
• Stiglitz, J. (2002). Globalization and its Discontents. W. W. Norton & Company.
• Streeck, W. (2014). Buying time: The delayed crisis of democratic capitalism. Verso. TCMB. (2011) Finansal İstikrar Raporu (Sayı 13). Ankara https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TR/TCMB%2BTR/Main%2BMenu/Yayinlar/Raporlar/Finansal%2BIstikrar%2BRaporu/2011/Sayi%2B13
• TCMB. (2020). Finansal İstikrar Raporu (Sayı 31). Ankara. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TR/TCMB%2BTR/Main%2BMenu/Yayinlar/Raporlar/Finansal%2BIstikrar%2BRaporu/2020
• Yeldan, E. (2001). Küreselleşme Sürecinde Türkiye Ekonomisi. İletişim Yayınları.
• Veri Kaynakları
• Bank for International Settlements (BIS). (2024). Household debt to GDP ratio [Data set]. https://www.bis.org
• Bank for International Settlements (BIS). (2025). Heterogeneity and monetary policy in Korea (BIS Papers No. 157).
• Bankacılık Düzenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu (BDDK). (2024). Finansal istatistikler. https://www.bddk.org.tr
• Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). (2024). Household debt to GDP (selected countries) [Database]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org
• International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2023, August 18). IMF Executive Board concludes the 2022 Article IV consultation with Türkiye [Press release].
• International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2024). International Financial Statistics [Database].
• International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2024). Global Debt Monitor (Fiscal Affairs Department).
• International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025, September 17). Global debt remains above 235% of world GDP (GDD update).
• Joint External Debt Hub (JEDH). (2024). BIS–IMF–OECD–World Bank common database [Database]. OECD. (2024). OECD.Stat [Database].
• Trading Economics. (2024). Turkey: Household debt to GDP. https://tr.tradingeconomics.com/turkey/households-debt-to-gdp
• Türkiye Bankalar Birliği (TBB). (2024). Tüketici kredileri istatistikleri (1997–2024) [Excel file]. https://www.tbb.org.tr
• Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB). (2023). Finansal İstikrar Raporları. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr
• Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK). (2024). Hanehalkı gelir ve borçluluk istatistikleri. World Bank. (2024). World Development Indicators (WDI) [Database]. https://data.worldbank.org
• World Bank. (2024). International Debt Statistics (IDS) [Database]. https://data.worldbank.org