THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS ON EXPORT OF TURKEY: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

Öz

Export is considered as an important factor in achieving the growth and development target of developing countries. However, the export performance of developing countries depends on the investments which are made in those countries. FDI is seen as a way of reaching the capital needed for investment, since the capital required for investment in these countries is not sufficient.Export is an important factor in the growth and development tagets of the developing countries. However, the export performance of developing countries depends on the investments to be made in those country. FDI is seen as a way of reaching the capital needed for investment in these countries since the capital required for investment is not sufficient. The main purpose of this study is to reveal the effect of foreign direct investments on exports in case of Turkey. For a more consistent econometric model, industrial production index, producer price index, real exchange rate and commercial loan interest rates are defined in addition to foreign direct investments. The empirical analysis was performed using the monthly data for the period 2005 / 1-2018 / 7. The data are obtained from Central Bank of Turkey and Turkey Statistical Institute were tested with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) border test approach. The empirical findings showed that the effect of foreign direct investment inflows on exports was positive and statistically significant on long term and short term analysis.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• FDI,Export,Cointegration,ARDL

DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARIN TÜRKİYE’NİN İHRACATI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: AMPİRİK BİR İNCELEME

Öz

İhracat gelişmekte olan ülkelerin büyüme ve kalkınma hedefine ulaşmasında önemli bir faktör olarak kabul edilmektedir. Fakat gelişmekte olan ülkelerin ihracat performansı o ülkelerde yapılacak yatırımlara bağlıdır. Bu ülkelerde yatırım için gerekli sermaye yeterli olmadığından DYY'ler yatırım için ihtiyaç duyulan sermayeye ulaşmanın bir yolu olarak görülmektedir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı da DYY'nin ihracat üzerindeki etkisini Türkiye örneğinde ortaya koymaktır. Daha tutarlı bir ekonometrik model için bağımsız değişken olarak DYY ile birlikte sanayi üretim endeksi, yurt içi üretici fiyat endeksi, üfe bazlı reel efektif döviz kuru ve yurt içi ticari kredi faiz oranları da modele tanımlanmıştır. Ampirik analiz 2005/1-2018/7 dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Veriler Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımıyla test edilmiştir. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular uzun ve kısa dönem analizinde DYY girişlerinin ihracat üzerindeki etkisinin pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı olduğunu göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• DYY,İhracat,Eşbütünleşme,ARDL

Kaynakça

1. Abor, J., Adjasi, C., & Hayford, M.-C. (2008). How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect the Export Decisions of Firms in Ghana?. African Development Review, 20(3), 446-465.
2. Adhikary, B. K. (2012). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness, Domestic Demand, and Exchange Rate on the Export Performance of Bangladesh: A VEC Approach. Hindawi Publishing Corporation Economics Research International Volume, 4(5), 216-226.
3. Agarwal, J. (1980). Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Survey. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 116(4), 739-773.
4. Alıcı, A. A., & Ucal, M. (2003). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Output Growth of Turkey: Causality Analysis. Proceeding of the 5th Annual Conference on European Trade Study Group, Sept. 11-13 (s. 1-19). Madrid: Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
5. Aliber, R.Z. (1970). A Theory of Direct Foreign Investment. Ed.C. P. Kindleberger, The International Corporation (pp.28-33.). MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, United States.
6. Almfraji, M. A., & Almsafir, M. (2014). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth Literature Review from 1994 to 2012. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 206 – 213.
7. Ayaz, M., Yousuf, M., & Asghar, M. (2013). Exports Performance under the Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan: An ARDL Approach. International Journal of Economic Practices and Theories, 3(3), 192-202.
8. Balassa, B. (1988). The Lessons of East Asian Development: An Overview. Economic Development and Cultural Change,36 (3), S273-S290.

9. Balassa, B. (1985). Exports, Policy Choices, And Economic Growth in Developing Countries After The 1973 Oil Shock. Journal of Development Economics, 18(1), 23-35.
10. Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and economic growth: Further evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 5(2), 181-189.
11. Baldauf, A., Cravens, D.W., & Wagner, U. (2000). Examining Determinants of Export Performance in Small Open Economies. Journal of World Business, 35 (1), 61-79.
12. Barrell, R., & Pain, N. (1997). Foreign Direct Investment, Technological Change, and Economic Growth Within Europe. The Economic Journal, 445(107), 1770-1786.
13. Betliy, O. (2002). Measurement of the Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Observed J-Curve: Case of Ukraine. Master’s Dissertation. The National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, Kiev, Ukraine.
14. Blomström, M., & Kokko, A. (1996). Multinational Corporations and Spillovers. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research.
15. Borensztein, E., Gregorio, J., & Lee, J.-W. (1998). 'How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth?'. Journal of International Economics, s 115-135.
16. Bozdağlıoğlu, E. Y., & Özpınar, Ö. (2011). Türkiye'ye Gelen Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Türkiye'nin İhracat Performansına Etkilerinin VAR Yöntemi ile Tahmini. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 13(1), 39-63.
17. Buckley, P. (2010). Stephen Hymer: Three Phases, One Approach?. P. J. Buckley içinde, Foreign Direct Investment, China And The World Economy (s. 15-24). London.
18. Buckley, P., & Frances, R. (2010). Foreign Direct Investment in Ireland:Policy Implications for Emerging Economies. P. J. Buckley içinde, Foreign Direct Investment, China and the World Economy (Cilt 29, s. 365-385). London: Palgrave Macmillan.
19. Buckley, P., Clegg, J., Wang, C., & Cross, A. (2002). FDI, Regional Differences and Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence from China. Transnational Corporations, 11(1), 1-28.
20. Buckley, P. (1988). The Limits of Explanation: Testing the Internalisation Theory of the Multinational Enterprise. Journal of International Business Studies, 19(2), 181-193.
21. Buckley, P., & Casson, M. (1976). London. The Future of the Multinational Enterprise. Macmillan.
22. Burstein, A. and Gopinath, G. (2014). International Prices and Exchange Rates. Eds. G. Gopinath, E. Helpman, K. Rogoff, The Handbook of International Economics, Vol. IV (pp.391-451). Amsterdam: North-Holand
23. Campos, N. F., & Kinoshita, Y. (2002). Foreign Direct Investment as Technology Transferred: Some Panel Evidence from the Transition Economies. William Davidson Working Paper Number 438.
24. Castro, F. B. (2000). Foreign Direct Investment in the European Periphery. The Competitiveness of Portugal. University of Leeds, Unpublished PhD Thesis.
25. Chakraborty, C., & Nunnenkamp, P. (2006). Economic Reforms, Foreign Direct Investment and its Economic Effects in India. Kiel Working Paper No. 1272.
26. Chen, J., Sousa, C.M.P., & He, X. (2016). The Determinants of Export Performance: A Review of the Literature 2006-2014. International Marketing Review, 33 (5), 626-670.
27. Choe, J. I. (2003). 'Do Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Domestic Investment Promote Economic Growth?. Review of Development Economics, 7(1), 44-57.
28. Chou, T.‐C. (1988). American and Japanese direct foreign investment in Taiwan: a comparative study. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 29, 165–179.
29. Clus-Rossouw, D. l., Viviers, W., & Loots, E. (2015). Is there a link between BRIC foreign direct investment and SADC export performance?. Development Southern Africa, 32(6), 658–674.
30. Craigwell, R. (2006). Foreign Direct Investment and Employment in the English and Dutch-Speaking Caribbean. Working Papers. Tripartite Caribbean Employment Forum.
31. Cushman, D. (1985). Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations and The Level of Direct İnvestment, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67, 297-308
32. Datta, K., & Lahiri, A. (2018). FDI Inflow, Export and Economic Growth Relationship in India: An ARDL-Bound Cointegration Approach. Economic Affairs, 63(2), 533-545.
33. Davaakhuu, O., Sharma, K., & Oczkowski, E. (2015). Has foreign investment played a role in Mongolia's export success?. Post-Communist Economies, 27(2), 256-267.
34. Denisia, V. (2010). Foreign Direct Investment Theories: An Overview of the Main FDI Theories. Academy of Economic Studies, 2(2), 104-110.
35. Dunning, J. H. (2008). Multinational Enterprises and the Global Economy Londan: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2. Baskı.
36. Dunning, J. (2001). The Eclectic (OLI) Paradigm of International Production: Past, Present and Future. International Journal of the Economics of Business, 8(2), 173-190.
37. Dunning, J. (1988). Explaining International Production. London : Unwin Hyman.
38. Dunning, J. (1980). Toward an Eclectic Theory of International Production: Some Empirical Tests. Journal of International Business Studie, 11(1), 9-31.
39. Easterly, W. (1997). The Ghost of Financing Gap: How The Harrod-Domar Growth Model Stil Haunts Development Economics. World Bank.
40. Ekanayake, E. (1999). Exports and Economic Growth in Asian Developing Countries: Cointegration and Error-Correction Models. Journal of Economic Development, 4(2).
41. Faeth, I. (2009). Determinants of Foreıgn Dırect Investment – A Tale of Nıne Theoretical Models. Journal of Economic Survey, 23(1), 165-196.
42. Feder, G. (1983). On Export and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 59-73.
43. Fuerst, S. (2010). The Development of International Business Theory: Implications for International Business Teaching and Research in Colombia. Cuadernos de administración, Universidad del Valle, 43, 33-51.
44. Girma, S., Kneller , R., & Pisu, M. (2005). Acquisition FDI and the Export Intensity of Multinational Firms. University of Nottingham Globalization Productivity and Technology Research Paper RP 2005/01.
45. Göçer, İ., Bulut, S., & Dam, M. (2012). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Türkiye’nin İhracat Performansına Etkileri: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz. Business and Economics Research Journal.
46. Görg, H., & Strobl, E. (2005). Foreign Direct Investment and Local Economic Development: Beyond Productivity Spillovers. Editörler T. Moran, E. Graham, & M. Blomström, Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development? (Cilt 107, s. 137-157). Washington DC,Institute for International Economics.
47. Greenawaya, D., Sousab, N., & Wakelina, K. (2004). Do Domestic Firms Learn To Export From Multinationals?. European Journal of Political Economy, 20, 1027-1043.
48. Gu, W., & Awokuse, T. (2008). The Contribution of Foreign Direct Investment to China’s Export Performance: Evidence from Disaggregated Sectors. The American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting. Orlando.
49. Hejazi, W., & Safarian, A. E. (2001). The Complementarity Between U.S. Foreign Direct Investment Stock and Trade. Atlantic Economic Journal, 4(29), 420-437.
50. Heller, P., & Porter, R. (1978). Export and Growth: An empirical re-investigation. Joumal of Development Economics, 191-193.
51. Henisz, W. J. (2003). The Power of The Buckley And Casson Thesis: The Ability to Manage İnstitutional İdiosyncrasies. Journal of International Business Studies, 34, 173–184.
52. Hymer, S. (1960). The International Operations of National Firms: A Study of Direct Foreign Investment. (Ph.D. dissertation) .Massachusetts Institute of Techhnology Press.
53. İSO 500. (2016). Türkiye’nin 500 Büyük Sanayi Kuruluşu. İstanbul Sanayi Odası.
54. Jagadeesh, D. (2015). The Impact of Savings in Economic Growth: An Empirical Study Based on Botswana. International Journal of Research in Business Studies and Management, 2(9), 10-21.
55. Jawaid, S., Raza, S., Mustafa, K., & Karim, M. (2016). Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Lead Export Performance in Pakistan ?. Global Business Review, 17(6), 1296-1313.
56. Johanson, J., & Vahlne, J.-E. (1977). The Internationalization Process of the Firm—A Model of Knowledge Development and Increasing Foreign Market Commitments. Journal of International Business Studies, 8(1), 23-32.
57. Johanson,, J., & Wiedersheim-Paul, F. (1975). The Internationalization of the Firm—Four Swedish Cases. The Journal of Management Studies, 12, 305-323.
58. Khan, Y., Wang, M., & Hassan, T. (2018). Foreign Direct Investment and Import-Export: The case of Pakistan. Research Journal of Economics.
59. Kiran, B. (2010). Causal Links Between Foreign Direct Investment and Trade in Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(2), 150-158.
60. Klasra, M. A. (2011). Foreign Direct İnvestment, Trade Openness And Economic Growth İn Pakistan and Turkey: An İnvestigation Using Bounds Test. Quality & Quantity, 223–231.
61. Kneller, R., & Pisu, M. (2007). Industrial Linkages and Export Spillovers from FDI. The World Economy, 30(1), 105-134.
62. Knickerbocker, F. T. (1973). Oligopolistic Reaction and Multinational Enterprise. Boston.
63. Kudrle, R., & Bobrow, D. (1982). U.S. Policy toward Foreign Direct Investment. World Politics, 34, 353-79.
64. Kueh, J. S.-H., Puah, C.-H., Lau , E., & Mansor, S. (2007). FDI-trade Nexus: Empirical Analysis on ASEAN-5. Munich Personal RePEc Archive.
65. Kuntluru, S., Muppani, V., & Khan, M. (2012). Foreign Direct Investment and Export Performance of Pharmaceutical Firms in India: An Empirical Approach. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(5), 216-226.
66. Kurtishi-Kastrati, S. (2013). Impact of FDI On Economic Growth: An Overview of The Main Theories of FDI: And Empirical Research. European Scientific Journal, 9(7), 56-77.
67. Kutan, A., & Vuksic, G. (2007). Foreign Direct Investment and Export Performance. Association for Comparative Economic Studies.
68. Lafrance, R., Patrick O. & Pierre, S. A. (1998). Evaluating Alternative Measures of the Real Effective Exchange Rate. Bank of Canada Working Paper (pp.98-20).
69. Lages, L.F. (2000). A Conceptual Framework of the Determinants of Export Performance. Journal of Global Marketing, 13, 2000(3), 29-51.
70. Leichenko, R. M., & Erickson, R. A. (1997). Foreign Direct Investment and State Export Performance. Journal of Regional Science(37), 307-329.
71. Li, P., & Haiying, M. (2015). An Empirical Analysis of Economic Development in Northwest China: Based on the Vicious Circle of Poverty Demands Theory. International Journal of Business Administration, 6(4), 57-63.
72. Lin, A. (1995). Trade Effects of Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence For Taiwan with Four ASEAN Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv (131), 737-747.
73. Lipsey , R., & Sjöholm, F. (2005). The Impact of Inward FDI on Host Countries: Why Such Different Answers?. Editörler R. E. Lipsey, F. Sjöholm, T. Moran, E. Graham, & M. Blomström, Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development? (s. 23-43). Washington DC., Institute for International Economics.
74. Love, J. (1982). The Determinants of Export Performance of Developing Countries. Journal of Economic Studies, 9 (3),55-60.
75. Lutz, J. M. (1984). Foreign Investment in the United States: Effects on Export Performance. Social Science Quarterly, 68(4), 816-833.
76. Malhotra, N., & Kumari, D. (2015). Determinants of Exports in Major Asian Economies. Journal of International Economics, 6(2), 94-110.
77. Mehra, N. (2013). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Employment and Gross Domestic Product in India. International Journal Economic Res., 29 - 38.
78. Mencinger, J. (2003). Does Foreign Direct Investment Always Enhance Economic Growth?. KYKLOS, 56, 491-508.
79. Nguyen, T., & Yuqing, X. (2008). Foreign Direct Investment and Exports: the Experiences of Vietnam. GSIR Working Papers Economic Development & Policy Series. Pain, N., & Wakelin, K. (1998). Export Performance and The Role of Foreign Direct Investment. The Manchester School Supplement, 62-88.
80. Payaslioglu, C., & Polat, B. (2013). The Impact Of Exchange Rate Uncertainity on FDI Inwards Into Turkey. Wei International Academic Conference Proceedings (pp.163-177). Antalya.
81. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., & Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
82. Rahmaddi, R., & Ichihashi, M. (2013). The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia's Manufacturing Exports. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 49(3), 329-54.
83. Ram, R. (1985). Exports and Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 33(2), 415-425.
84. Rostow, W. W. (1960). The Stages of Economis Growth a Non-Communist Manifesto. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press.
85. Sharma, K. (2003). Factors Determining India’s Export Performance. Journal of Asian economics, 14(3).
86. Sharma, K., Oczkowski, E., & Jayasuriya, S. (2001). Liberalization, Export İncentives, and Trade İntensity: New Evidence from Nepalese Manufacturing İndustries. Journal of Asian Economics, 12(1), 123-135.
87. Solow, T. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 65-94.
88. Sultanuzzaman, M. R. (2018). The Role of FDI Inflows and Export on Economic Growth in Sri Lanka: An ARDL approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 6(1), 1-17.
89. Sun, H. (2001). Foreign Direct Investment and Regional Export Performance in China. Journal o Regional Science, 41(2), 317-336.
90. Vernon, R. (1966). International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80(2).
91. Vural, İ. Y., & Zortuk, M. (2011). Foreign Direct Investment as a Determining Factor in Turkey’s Export Performance. Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 4(7), 13-23.
92. Wang, M., & Wong, M. (2009). What Drives Economic Growth? The Case of Cross Border M&A and Greenfield FDI Activities. Kyklos, 62(2), 316-330.
93. Yamak, R., & Erdem, H. (2017). Uygulamalı Zaman Serisi Analizleri. Trabzon: Celepler Matbaa Yayın Ve Dağıtım.
94. Yousuf, M., Hussain, Z., & Ahmad, N. (2008). Economic Evaluation of Foreign Direct İnvestment in Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 46(1), 37-56.
95. Zhang, K. H. (2005). How Does FDI Affect a Host Country’s Export Performance? The Case of China. International conference of WTO, China, The Asian Economics, III Xi’an, China, 25-26, June.
96. Zhang, K. H., & Song, S. (2000). Promoting Exports The Role of İnward FDI in China. China Economic Review, 11(4), 385-396