VARIABILITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN OIL PRICES: AN ANALYSIS ON OIL IMPORTING COUNTRIES

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 1, 68 - 84, 30.06.2020

Nazife Özge Beşer Serdar Öztürk

Öz

In this study had been included to analysis as 16 countries (Australia, Brazil,
Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Russia, South
Africa, South Korea, Turkey and the UK U.S.A.) most oil importing country by
using data in between the years of 1986 and 2013. In the analysis, panel data
method had been used and firstly homogeneity test that enables to test that slope
coefficients are homogenous or heterogeneous for each country and cross
sectional dependency tests that examine whether there is dependency between
cross sections or not had been included. After panel unit root tests had been done,
model had been guessed by Panel Dynamic SUR estimator.
Later, causality tests had been applied for variables constituting the model.
According to panel causality test results, two-way causality relation had been
determined in between economic growth and commercial gap, employment rate,
capital asset saving and world petroleum prices. When causality relation was
examined in between oil import and economic growth, from oil import to growth
one way causality relation had been determined. Finally, any causality relation
had not been encountered in between carbon dioxide emission originating from
oil consumption and economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Oil Prices, Economic Growth, Panel Data Analysis, Oil Importing Countries, Panel Dynamic SUR

PETROL FİYATLARINDA DEĞİŞKENLİK VE İKTİSADİ BÜYÜME: PETROL İTHAL EDEN ÜLKELER ÜZERİNE BİR ANALİZ

Öz

Bu çalışmada, 1986-2013 yılları arası yıllık veriler kullanılarak en çok petrol
ithal eden 16 ülke (Avustralya, Brezilya, Kanada, Çin, Fransa, Almanya,
Hindistan, Endonezya, İtalya, Japonya, Rusya, Güney Afrika, Güney Kore,
Türkiye İngiltere ve A.B.D) analize dâhil edilmiştir. Analizde panel veri yöntemi
kullanılmış olup ilk olarak eğim katsayılarının her bir ülke için homojen mi yoksa
heterojen mi olduğunun test edilmesine imkân veren homojenlik testi ile yatay
kesitler arasında bağımlılığın olup olmadığının test edildiği yatay kesit
bağımlılığı testlerine yer verilmiştir. Panel birim kök sınamaları yapıldıktan sonra
model Panel Dinamik SUR tahmincisi ile tahmin edilmiştir.
Daha sonra modeli oluşturan değişkenler için nedensellik testleri uygulanmıştır.
Panel nedensellik test sonuçlarına göre ekonomik büyüme ile ticari açıklık,
ekonomik büyüme ile istihdam oranı, ekonomik büyüme ile sabit sermaye birikimi
ve ekonomik büyüme ile dünya petrol fiyatları arasında çift yönlü nedensellik
ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Petrol ithalatı ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki
nedensellik ilişkisi araştırıldığında ise petrol ithalatından büyümeye doğru tek
yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Son olarak petrol tüketiminden
kaynaklı karbondioksit salınımı ile ekonomik büyüme arasında ise herhangi bir
nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanılmamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Petrol Fiyatları, İktisadi Büyüme, Panel Veri Analizi, Petrol İthal Eden Ülkeler, Panel Dinamik SUR

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