İSPANYOL GRİBİ PANDEMİSİNİN EKONOMİK ETKİLERİ VE KEYNESYEN BİR DEĞERLENDİRME

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 1, 117 - 143, 31.07.2024

Gözde Tuğan , Sema Yılmaz Genç

https://doi.org/10.55827/ebd.1416732

Öz

İnsanlık tarihi kadar eski olan pandemiler, toplum sağlığı üzerinde hastalık yapıcı ve ölümle sonuçlanan etkiler yaratırken; diğer taraftan da ülke ekonomileri üzerinde yıkıcı sonuçlar doğurmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, en az günümüz pandemisi kadar ölümcül sonuçları olduğu kabul edilen İspanyol Gribi, 21.yüzyıl Koronovirüs pandemisinin kısa ve uzun vadeli olası ekonomik etkilerinin değerlendirilmesi noktasında önemli bir projeksiyon sunmaktadır. İspanyol Gribi pandemisinin, I. Dünya Savaşı yıllarına tekabül etmesi gerek savaşa dahil olan ülkelerde halkın psikolojisini korumak gerekse de teknik yetersizlikler nedeni ile kapsamlı ve sağlıklı veriye erişim noktasında kısıtlar yaratmıştır. Ancak mevcut veriler ve çalışma bulguları İspanyol Gribi pandemisinin arz ve talep kaynaklı etkilerinin kısa vadeli sonuçlarına vurgu yapmıştır. Uzun vadeli etkiler daha ziyade düşük güven düzeyi, görece düşük beşeri sermaye yatırımları şeklinde sıralanmıştır. Ancak pandeminin kısa ve uzun vadeli etkileri ülkeler, bölgeler ve sektörler arasında son derece heterojen dağılmıştır. Ve pandeminin etkilerini hafifletmek üzere devlet müdahalesi kaçınılmaz olmuştur. Özellikle ilgili yıllar itibariyle Keynesyen ekol, hakim iktisadi görüş olmasa da ekonomide canlanma yaratacak kamusal harcamalar ve parasal genişleme politikaları önemli birer dengeleyici unsur olmuştur. Artan harcamaların yol açtığı kamu borç yükünün karşılanması noktasında ise devlete gelir yaratıcı ticaret politikaları bu dönemde başvurulan müdahale araçları olarak sıralanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sağlık Krizi, İspanyol Gribi Pandemisi, Keynesyen İktisat

Kaynakça

• Aassve, A., Alfani, G., Gandolfi, F., & Le Moglie M. (2020). Epidemics and trust: The case of the Spanish Flu. DONDENA Working Paper.
• Almond, D. (2006). “Is the 1918 ınfluenza pandemic over? Long-term effect of ın utero ınfluenza exposure in the post-1940 U.S. Population.”Journal of Political Economy, 114(4), 672-712.
• Armingeon K. (2012). The politics of fiscal responses to the crisis of 2008–2009. Governance, 25(4), 543–565.
• Barro, R. J. & Ursúa, J. F. (2008). Macroeconomic crises since 1870, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 13940.
• Barro, R.J., Ursua, J.F., & Weng, J. (2020). The coronavirus and the great influenza pandemic: lessons from the “spanish flu” for the coronavirus’s potential effects on mortality and economic activity, Nber Working Paper Series, Working Paper 26866.
• Basco, S., Domenech, J. & Roses, J.R. (2021). The redistributive effects of pandemics: Evidence on the Spanish flu, World Development, 141, 1-17.
• Ben, O. (2020), Coronavirus pandemic shock; contrasting classical and keynes theories, American International Journal of Business Management (AIJBM), 3(6), 1-9.
• Berbenni, E. & Colombo, S. (2021). The impact of pandemics: revising the Spanish Flu in Italy in light of models’ predictions, and some lessons for the Covid-19 pandemic, Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, 48, 219-243.
• Bishop, J. (2020). Economic effects of the spanish flu, Bulletin, https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/jun/economic-effects-of-the-spanish-flu.html (2.6.2023)
• Boberg-Fazlic, N., Lampe, M., Pedersen, M. U. & Sharp, P. (2021). Pandemics and protectionism: evidence from the “Spanish” flu, Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 145(8).
• Bocutoğlu, E. (2016), İktisadi Düşünceler Tarihi, (3. Baskı), Bursa: Ekin Basın Yayın Dağıtım.
• Boianovsky, Mauro, B. & Erreygers, G. (2021), How economists ignored the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918–1920, Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics, 14(1), 89-109.
• Boucekkine, R., Diene, B. & Azomahou, T. (2008). Growth economics of epidemics: a review of the theory. Mathematical Population Studies, 15, 1–26.
• Brainerd, E. & Siegler, M.V. (2003). The economic effects of the 1918 influenza epidemic, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Discussion Paper No. 3791.
• Burdekin, RCK. (2020). Economic and financial effects of the 1918-1919 spanish flu pandemic, Journal of Infectious Diseases & Therapy, 8(6).
• Carillo, M.F. & Jappelli, T. (2021). Pandemics and regional economic growth: evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy, European Review of Economic History, 26, 78–106.
• Chohan, U.W. (2022). The return of keynesianism? Exploring path dependency and ideational change in post-covid fiscal policy , Policy and Society, 41(1), 68–82.
• Congressional Budget Office (2006). Potential influenza pandemic: possible macroeconomic effects and policy issues, chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/109th-congress- 2005-2006/reports/12-08-birdflu.pdf (20.11.2023)
• Correia, S., Luck, S. & Verner, E. (2020). Fight the pandemic, save the economy: lessons from the 1918 flu, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics, https://l24.im/vG0k (9.11.2023)
• Daly, K. & Chankova, R. D. (2021). Inflation in the aftermath of wars and pandemics .Goldman Sachs https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/inflation-aftermath-wars-and-pandemics (18.10.2023)
• De Santis, R.A. & Van der Veken W. (2020), Macroeconomic risks across the globe due to the Spanish Flu, European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, No.2466, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2466~43b7489b61.en.pdf (6.11.2023).
• Ferguson, N. (2020). Don’t bet on a quick global resurrection amid COVID-19 pandemic, https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-dont-bet-on-a-quick-global-resurrection-amid-covid- 19-pandemic/ (11.10.2023)
• Fujimura, F. (2003), Purple death: the great flu of 1918, Pan American Health Organization, 8(3), https://www.paho.org/en/who-we-are/history-paho/purple-death-great-flu-1918 (23.10.2023)
• Garrett, T. A. (2007). Economic effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic implications for a modern-day pandemic, federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or the Federal Reserve System
• Jan, D., & Verbeek, M. (2020). Are strict social distancing policies necessary for economic recovery after a pandemic? A Re-Analysis of the 1918 Flu Pandemic, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3601901 (15.11.2023)
• Lura, F.M. (2022). A comparative analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the spanish flu and the covid-19 pandemic an empirical, deductive, and contrafactual analysis, Norwegian School of Economics Bergen, https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Fredrik-Lura/publication/361085176_A_Comparative_Analysis_of_the_Macroeconomic_Effects_of_the_Spanish_Flu_and_the_Covid-19_Pandemic/links/629c92bd55273755ebd51321/A-Comparative-Analysis-of-the-Macroeconomic-Effects-of-the-Spanish-Flu-and-the-Covid-19-Pandemic.pdf (17.10.2023)
• Maddison, (2010), Historical statistics, https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-database-2010 (1.11.2023)
• Mellish, T.I., Luzmore, N. J. & Shahbaz, A.A. (2020). Why were the UK and USA unprepared for the COVID-19 pandemic? The systemic weaknesses of neoliberalism: a comparison between the UK, USA, Germany, and South Korea, Journal of Global Faultlines, 7(1), pp. 9-45
• Morens, D.M, Folkers, G.K., & Fauci, A.S. (2009), What is a pandemic? The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 200(7), 1018-1021.
• Namani, A. (2021), The rebirth of Keynes during the COVID-19 pandemics - a theoretical approach, CES Working Papers, 4, 347-366.
• National Bureau of Economic Research (2023), NBER macrohistory: v. stocks of commodities, https://www.nber.org/research/data/nber-macrohistory-database (14.06.2023)
• National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). (2020). Social and economic impacts of the 1918 influenza epidemic, 5, https://www.nber.org/digest/may20/social-and-economic-impacts-1918-influenza-epidemic (6.11.2023)
• Pamuk, Ş. (2020), Tarihte Küresel Salgınlar ve İktisadi Sonuçları, https://sarkac.org/2020/04/tarihte-kuresel-salginlar-ve-iktisadi-sonuclari/ (7.01.2024)
• Pettifor, A. (2019), Balance of power: The Economic Consequences of the Peace at 100, Books and Arts, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02850-8 (6.1.2024)
• Roser, M. (2020). The Spanish flu: The global impact of the largest influenza pandemic in history, https://ourworldindata.org/spanish-flu-largest-influenza-pandemic-in-history#:~:text=The%20estimate%20of%2050%20million,rate%20would%20have%20been%205.4%25. (11.10.2023)
• Saul, T. (2023), Inside the swift, deadly history of the Spanish Flu pandemic, History Magazine, https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/history-magazine/article/history-spanish-flu-pandemic (23.10.2023)
• Sharma, A., Ghosh, D., Divekar, N., Gore, M., Gochhait, S. & Shireshi, S.S. (2021). Comparing the socio-economic implications of the 1918 Spanish flu and the COVID-19 pandemic in India: A systematic review of literature, Internatinal Social Science Journal, 71(S1), 23-36.
• Spinney, L. (2018), The flu that transformed the 20th Century, BBC News Future, https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20181016-the-flu-that-transformed-the-20th-century (7.01.2024)
• Su, X. (2021), The Economic impact of Pandemic, case study of “Spanish Flu” in 1918-1920, Stockholm University: Department of Economic History and International Relations Master's Thesis in Economic History .
• Taubenberger, J.K. & Morens D.M. (2006). 1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics, Emerging Infectious Diseases, 12(1), 15–22, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291398/ (11.10.2023)
• Ullman, H. (2020). Economic recovery from coronavirus: lessons from 1918-1923, Atlantic Council, New Atlanticist, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/economic-recovery-from-coronavirus-lessons-from-1918-1923/ (22.11.2023)
• Velde, F.R. (2022), What happened to the u.s. economy during the 1918 influenza pandemic? a view through high-frequency data, The Journal of Economic History, 82(1), 284-326.
• Wood, J., Ausserladscheider, V. & Sparkes, M. (2022), COVID-Keynesianism’ was a short-term crisis management tactic. Neoliberal policymaking is back, LSE British Politics and Policy, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/covid-keynesianism-was-a-short-term-crisis-management-tactic-neoliberal-policymaking-is-back/ (6.12.2023)