Approaches on The Future of Turkey Tourism in 2023

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 164 - 184, 29.10.2018

Cüneyt Mengü

Öz

In 2023 Turkey will celebrate the 100th
anniversary of the foundation of the Republic. For this reason since 2005
various institutions & organizations have issued different estimates on the
Turkey’s 2023 tourism targets. For some estimates, the researches were based
upon unspecified method and for the others, it has been observed that an
arithmetic average percentage was used. According to the forecasting model with
econometric analysis, single variadic regression  (point & interval estimations) made by us
in 2006, through the years, the realized and the estimated global international
tourists travelling from abroad till 2023 in the world and the estimation of
tourist arrivals to our country from abroad were formed in a single projection.
As it is understood from the results of our research, between the years
2006-2015 the number of international tourists arrived in Turkey were almost
the same as the projected figures, even at the level of usual expectations. However, in 2016, as a result of unfavorable events that
occurred in Turkey, of which 30% decline was experienced comparing with the
previous year and this also affected the result of our projection study negatively.
Within the scope of this study, with regard to Turkey's 2023
target, besides the normal course of the predicted econometric forecasts
analysis made by us for the years, along with derived "force majeure"
actual and estimated figures comparison, pessimistic, usual and optimistic
expectations were obtained. On the subject literature search was made,
secondary data sources were utilized and suggestions for the realization of the
objectives were examined in the conclusion & reccomendation section.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Turkey's 2023 tourism target, Tourism forecasts, Econometric analysis, Point & interval estimations

Kaynakça

• Chris Cooper, J. Fletcher ve diğerleri, Tourism Principles and Practice, Fourth Edition, Prentice Hall Financial Times, İngiltere, 2008.
• Cüneyt Mengü, Ortadoğu Turizm Pazarının Türkiye Açısından Analizi, Yayımlanmamış doktora tezi, İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, 2008, s. 61.
• DPT (2006), Dokuzuncu Beş Yıllık Kalkınma Planı (2007 – 2013) – Turizm Ön İhtisas Kurulu Raporu, Ankara.
• DPT (2006), Dokuzuncu Beş Yıllık Kalkınma Planı (2007 – 2013), Ankara.
• DPT (2013), Onuncu Beş Yıllık Kalkınma Planı (2014-2018), Ankara.
• DPT (Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı) Dokuzuncu Kalkınma Planı Turizm Özel İhtisas Komisyonu Raporu, http://plan9.dpt.gov.tr/oik49_turizm/49turizm.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 09.06.2012.
• Page & Connell, Tourism A Modern Synthesis, South Western, Third Edition, UK, p. 620.
• Stephen J. Page ve J. Connell, Tourism A Modern Synthesis, Third Edition, South Western Cengage Learning EMEA, İngiltere, 2009.
• T.C. Başbakanlık DPT Dokuzuncu Kalkınma Planı 2007-2013, Turizm Özel İhtisas Komisyonu Raporu, Ankara, 2007, s.92.
• T.C. Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığı, Türkiye Turizm Stratejisi 2023, Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığı, Ankara, 2007, http://www.sp.gov.tr/documents/Turizm_Strateji_2023.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 01.06.2012.
• Türkiye Turizm Stratejisi – 2023, http://www.sp.gov.tr/documents/Turizm_Strateji_2023.pdf
• TÜRSAB (Türkiye Seyahat Acenteleri Birliği), http://www.tursab.org.tr/tr/tursabdan-haberler/2023-turkiye-turizm-stratejileri-sunumu_1913.html, Erişim Tarihi: 09.06.2012.
• TYD (Türkiye Turizm Yatırımcıları Derneği), http://www.ttyd.org.tr/arama-sonuclari.aspx?q=2023, Erişim Tarihi: 09.06.2012.
• TYD Turizm 2023 Hedefi, http://www.ttyd.org.tr/2023-e-dogru-turk turizminde-yatirim-hamlesi.html.
• UNWTO Tourism 2020 Vision, http://www.unwto.org/facts/eng/vision.htm, Erişim Tarihi: 01.06.2012.
• UNWTO, World Tourism Performance 2011 and Outlook 2012, http://dtxtq4w60xqpw.cloudfront.net/sites/all/files/pdf/unwto_pisa_2011_2.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 01.06.2012