Nonlinear Determinants of Türkiye’s Capital Goods Imports: Uncertainty, Industrial Production, and Real Exchange Rates

Barış Ülker

doi:10.65653/ekonomitek.1840274

TR EN

Türkiye’de Sermaye Malları İthalatının Doğrusal Olmayan Belirleyicileri: Belirsizlik, Sanayi Üretimi ve Reel Kur

Öz

Sermaye malları, Türkiye’nin başlıca ithalat kalemleri içinde yer almaktadır. Bu çalışmada, küresel belirsizliğin, sanayi üretim endeksinin ve reel efektif döviz kurunun (REDK), Türkiye’nin reel sermaye malı ithalatı üzerindeki etkileri, asimetrileri ortaya çıkarmak için Lineer Olmayan Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikmeler (NARDL) modeli ile incelenmiştir. Çalışma 1994Q1-2025Q1 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Bulgular, sanayi üretiminin ithalat üzerinde güçlü bir asimetrik etkisini ve büyüme dönemlerinde ithalat hızla artarken, durgunluk dönemlerinde aşağı yönlü katılık gösterdiğini ortaya koymuştur. Kısa dönemde artan belirsizlik, ithalatı olumsuz etkileyerek Reel Opsiyon Teorisi’ni doğrularken, uzun dönemde etkisiz kalmıştır. Asimetrik etki sadece işaret açısından yönseldir. Buna karşın, REDK uzun dönemde ithalat üzerinde simetrik bir etkiye sahiptir. Sonuçlar, Türkiye’nin ithal sermaye mallarına olan yüksek bağımlığını ve büyüme için yerli sermaye mallarının önemini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sonuçlar doğrultusunda, küresel belirsizliğe karşı dayanıklılığı güçlendirmek, özellikle durgunluk dönemlerinde sermaye malı ithalatının dengelenmesine yardımcı olacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sermaye Malı İthalatı, Dünya Belirsizliği, Sanayi Üretimi, Döviz Kurları, NARDL Modeli

Nonlinear Determinants of Türkiye’s Capital Goods Imports: Uncertainty, Industrial Production, and Real Exchange Rates

Öz

Capital goods are among Türkiye’s main import items. In this study, the effects of world uncertainty, industrial production index, and real effective exchange rates (REER) on Türkiye’s real capital goods imports over the 1994Q1-2025Q1 period are investigated with the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to reveal asymmetries. Industrial production affects imports asymmetrically, surging during growth but exhibiting downward rigidity in recessions. Uncertainty confirms the Real Options Theory by affecting imports negatively in the short run, however it is ineffective in the long run. The asymmetric effect of the uncertainty is only directional. On the contrary, the REER has a symmetric effect on imports in the long-run. The results show Türkiye’s high dependence on imported capital goods and the importance of domestic capital goods for growth. These findings suggest that policies aimed at straightening resilience to global uncertainty in the short run may help stabilize capital goods import demand, especially during downturn periods.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Capital Goods Imports, World Uncertainty, Industrial Production, Exchange Rates, NARDL Model

Etik Beyan

This study has been prepared in accordance with the rules of scientific research and publication ethics.

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Barış Ülker ^*
0000-0002-6860-8210
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

12 Mart 2026

Gönderilme Tarihi

11 Aralık 2025

Kabul Tarihi

16 Şubat 2026

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2026 Cilt: 15 Sayı: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.65653/ekonomitek.1840274

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA92GT74JD

APA

Ülker, B. (2026). Nonlinear Determinants of Türkiye’s Capital Goods Imports: Uncertainty, Industrial Production, and Real Exchange Rates. Ekonomi-tek, 15(1), 134-158. https://doi.org/10.65653/ekonomitek.1840274

AMA

1.Ülker B. Nonlinear Determinants of Türkiye’s Capital Goods Imports: Uncertainty, Industrial Production, and Real Exchange Rates. Ekonomi-tek. 2026;15(1):134-158. doi:10.65653/ekonomitek.1840274

Chicago

Ülker, Barış. 2026. “Nonlinear Determinants of Türkiye’s Capital Goods Imports: Uncertainty, Industrial Production, and Real Exchange Rates”. Ekonomi-tek 15 (1): 134-58. https://doi.org/10.65653/ekonomitek.1840274.

EndNote

Ülker B (01 Mart 2026) Nonlinear Determinants of Türkiye’s Capital Goods Imports: Uncertainty, Industrial Production, and Real Exchange Rates. Ekonomi-tek 15 1 134–158.

IEEE

[1]B. Ülker, “Nonlinear Determinants of Türkiye’s Capital Goods Imports: Uncertainty, Industrial Production, and Real Exchange Rates”, Ekonomi-tek, c. 15, sy 1, ss. 134–158, Mar. 2026, doi: 10.65653/ekonomitek.1840274.

ISNAD

Ülker, Barış. “Nonlinear Determinants of Türkiye’s Capital Goods Imports: Uncertainty, Industrial Production, and Real Exchange Rates”. Ekonomi-tek 15/1 (01 Mart 2026): 134-158. https://doi.org/10.65653/ekonomitek.1840274.

JAMA

1.Ülker B. Nonlinear Determinants of Türkiye’s Capital Goods Imports: Uncertainty, Industrial Production, and Real Exchange Rates. Ekonomi-tek. 2026;15:134–158.

MLA

Ülker, Barış. “Nonlinear Determinants of Türkiye’s Capital Goods Imports: Uncertainty, Industrial Production, and Real Exchange Rates”. Ekonomi-tek, c. 15, sy 1, Mart 2026, ss. 134-58, doi:10.65653/ekonomitek.1840274.

Vancouver

1.Barış Ülker. Nonlinear Determinants of Türkiye’s Capital Goods Imports: Uncertainty, Industrial Production, and Real Exchange Rates. Ekonomi-tek. 01 Mart 2026;15(1):134-58. doi:10.65653/ekonomitek.1840274

Türkiye’de Sermaye Malları İthalatının Doğrusal Olmayan Belirleyicileri: Belirsizlik, Sanayi Üretimi ve Reel Kur

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Nonlinear Determinants of Türkiye’s Capital Goods Imports: Uncertainty, Industrial Production, and Real Exchange Rates

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Etik Beyan

Kaynakça

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Konular

Bölüm

Yazarlar

Yayımlanma Tarihi

Gönderilme Tarihi

Kabul Tarihi

Yayımlandığı Sayı

DOI

IZ

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