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A Bayesian Estimation of Real Business-Cycle Models for the Turkish Economy

Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2 1 Mayıs 2014
Hüseyin Taştan , Bekir Aşık
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A Bayesian Estimation of Real Business-Cycle Models for the Turkish Economy

Öz

We estimate a canonical small open economy real business-cycle model and its several extensions using a Bayesian approach to explore the effects of different structural shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Turkey. Alternative models include several theoretical exogenous shocks, such as those to temporary and permanent productivity, world interest rates, preferences, and domestic spending, as driving forces together with financial frictions. Results indicate that output is mostly driven by trend growth shocks, while temporary shocks are relatively less important. Although empirical results generally favor the stochastic trend model, in which there are only transitory and permanent productivity shocks as causative elements, an extended model with random world interest rates and various financial frictions can be a viable alternative to explain economic fluctuations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Real business-cycle models, financial frictions, Turkey, small open economy, emerging economies

Kaynakça

  1. Adjemian, S., Houtan Bastani, Michel Juillard, Frederic Karame, Ferhat Mihoubi, George Perendia, Johannes Pfeifer, Marco Ratto, and Sebastien Villemot, (2011), “Dynare: Reference Manual, Version 4,” Dynare Working Papers, 1, CEPREMAP.
  2. Aguiar, M. and G.Gopinath, (2007), “Emerging-Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend,” Journal of Political Economy 115 (1), 69-102.
  3. An, S. and F. Schorfheide, (2007), “Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models,” Econometric Reviews 26(2-4), 113-172.
  4. Araujo, Eurilton, (2012), “Investment-Specific Shocks and Real Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Brazil,” Economic Modeling, 29, 671-678.
  5. Bhattacharya, R., I. Patnaik, and M. Pundit, (2013), “Emerging-Economy Business Cycles: Financial Integration and Terms of Trade Shocks,” IMF Working Paper, WP/13/119.
  6. Bolanos, A., O. and J. Wishart, (2012), “Trend Shocks and Financial Frictions in Small Open Economies Modeling,” Center For Latin American Monetary Studies.
  7. Calvo, G., A., (1998), "Capital Flows and Capital Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops", Journal of Applied Economics, Vol: 1, No:1, pg: 35-54.
  8. Calvo, G., L. Leiderman, and C. Reinhart, (1993), “Capital Inflows and Real Exchange-Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors” MPRA Paper No: 7125.
  9. Canova, F., (2007), Methods for Applied Macroeconomic Research. 1st Edn., Princeton, NJ, USA: Princeton University Press.
  10. Chang, R. and A . Fernandez, (2010), “On the Sources of Aggregate Fluctuations in Emerging Economies,” NBER Working Paper Series No.w15938.

Kaynak Göster

APA
Taştan, H., & Aşık, B. (2014). A Bayesian Estimation of Real Business-Cycle Models for the Turkish Economy. Ekonomi-tek, 3(2), 27-50. https://izlik.org/JA88BR27CB
AMA
1.Taştan H, Aşık B. A Bayesian Estimation of Real Business-Cycle Models for the Turkish Economy. Ekonomi-tek. 2014;3(2):27-50. https://izlik.org/JA88BR27CB
Chicago
Taştan, Hüseyin, ve Bekir Aşık. 2014. “A Bayesian Estimation of Real Business-Cycle Models for the Turkish Economy”. Ekonomi-tek 3 (2): 27-50. https://izlik.org/JA88BR27CB.
EndNote
Taştan H, Aşık B (01 Mayıs 2014) A Bayesian Estimation of Real Business-Cycle Models for the Turkish Economy. Ekonomi-tek 3 2 27–50.
IEEE
[1]H. Taştan ve B. Aşık, “A Bayesian Estimation of Real Business-Cycle Models for the Turkish Economy”, Ekonomi-tek, c. 3, sy 2, ss. 27–50, May. 2014, [çevrimiçi]. Erişim adresi: https://izlik.org/JA88BR27CB
ISNAD
Taştan, Hüseyin - Aşık, Bekir. “A Bayesian Estimation of Real Business-Cycle Models for the Turkish Economy”. Ekonomi-tek 3/2 (01 Mayıs 2014): 27-50. https://izlik.org/JA88BR27CB.
JAMA
1.Taştan H, Aşık B. A Bayesian Estimation of Real Business-Cycle Models for the Turkish Economy. Ekonomi-tek. 2014;3:27–50.
MLA
Taştan, Hüseyin, ve Bekir Aşık. “A Bayesian Estimation of Real Business-Cycle Models for the Turkish Economy”. Ekonomi-tek, c. 3, sy 2, Mayıs 2014, ss. 27-50, https://izlik.org/JA88BR27CB.
Vancouver
1.Hüseyin Taştan, Bekir Aşık. A Bayesian Estimation of Real Business-Cycle Models for the Turkish Economy. Ekonomi-tek [Internet]. 01 Mayıs 2014;3(2):27-50. Erişim adresi: https://izlik.org/JA88BR27CB