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Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Beşeri Sermaye ve Bilgi Sermayesi Birikimine Dayalı Bir İçsel Büyüme Modeli

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 2, 21 - 60, 01.05.2012

Öz

Bu çalısmanın amacı Türkiye ekonomisinin dinamiklerinin orta-uzun dönemde izlenmesine olanak sağlayacak bir içsel büyüme modeli kurgulamaktır. Model, büyümenin kaynaklarını, beseri sermaye birikimi ve bilgi sermayesi (Ar-Ge) birikimini içsel olarak çözmek üzere olusturulmustur. Model çalısmasının temel vurgusu kamunun eğitim ve bilgi sermayesi yatırım harcamalarıyla, özel sermaye grupları tarafından yürütülen bilgi sermayesi ve arastırma/gelistirme yatırım davranısları arasındaki tamamlayıcılık iliskisine dayanmaktadır. Böylece Türkiye ekonomisinin büyüme dinamiklerini ayrıstırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Model yardımıyla su soruya somut yanıtlar aranmıstır: bütçe kısıtı altında hareket eden kamu idaresi, sermaye birikimini ve iktisadi büyümeyi artırmaya yönelik olarak öncelikle hangi aktiviteye destek sağlamalıdır: beseri sermaye maliyetlerinin desteklenmesi mi, yoksa Ar-Ge yatırım maliyetlerinin desteklenmesi mi? Model bulgularına göre devlet desteğinin sadece eğitim harcamalarını tesvik etme stratejisi, ulusal gelirde ilk basta olumlu bir etki yaratmakta, ancak bu etki uzun dönemde zayıflamaktadır. Salt eğitim yatırımlarının tesvik edilmesine dayalı bir kamu tesvik programından beklenen olumlu sonuçların ortauzun dönemde zayıflamasının tespiti modelin en önemli bulgusu olarak göze
çarpmaktadır. Bu gözlemler altında, devlet kaynak destekleme stratejisi kısaorta dönemde eğitim tesvikleriyle olusturulurken, orta-uzun dönemde Ar-Ge yatırımlarının özendirilmesiyle birlestirilerek hibrid bir programın amaçlanması daha uygun gözükmektedir.

Destekleyen Kurum

Bu çalışma TÜBİTAK Hızlı Destek Programı çerçevesinde 110K057 no’lu proje kapsamında desteklenmiştir.

Teşekkür

Yazar, söz konusu proje desteği için TÜBİTAK’a; çalışmanın çeşitli aşamalarında değerli görüş ve eleştirilerini esirgemeyen Ebru Voyvoda, Çağrı Sağlam ve Çağaçan Değer’e; Ekonomi-TEK dergisinin editörü sayın Ercan Uygur’a ve iki hakemine; ve çalışmada kullanılan verilerin derlenmesi ve ilgili iktisat yazınının takibini titizlikle yürüten araştırma asistanları Filiz Özge Yağcıbası ve Güneş Kolsuz’a teşekkür borçludur.

Kaynakça

  • Aghion, P. and P. Howitt, (1998), Endogenous Growth Theory, Cambridge, MIT Press.
  • Arrow, K.J., (1962), “The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing”, Review of Economic Studies, 29 (June), s.155-173.
  • Barro, R.J., (1991), “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (2), s.407-443.
  • Cass, D., (1965), “Optimum Growth in an Aggregate Model of Capital Accumulation” Review of Economic Studies, s.233-240.
  • Devlet Planlama Teskilatı (Kalkınma Bakanlığı), (2011), Dokuzuncu Kalkınma Planı, 2011 Yılı Programı, Ankara.
  • Diao, X., J. Rattso and H.E. Stokke, (2005), “International Spillovers, Productivity Growth and Openness in Thailand: an Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis”, Journal of Development Economics, 76, s.429-450.
  • Diao, X., T. Roe and E. Yeldan, (1999), “Strategic Policies and Growth: An Applied Model of R&D-Driven Endogenous Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 60, s.343-380.
  • Diao, X., T. Roe and E. Yeldan, (1999), “How Fiscal Mismanagement May Impede Trade Reform: Lessons From an Intertemporal, Multi-sector General Equilibrium Model for Turkey”, The Developing Economies, 37(1), March.
  • DPT, (2010), Bilgi Toplumu Đstatistikleri, Ankara.
  • Fougère M., S. Harvey, J. Mercenier and M. Mérette, (2009), “Population Ageing, Time Allocation and Human Capital: A general equilibrium analysis for Canada”, Economic Modeling, 26, s.30-39.
  • Fougère M., J. Mercenier and M. Mérette, (2007), “A Sectoral and Occupational Analysis of Population Ageing in Canada Using a Dynamic CGE Overlapping Generations Model”, Economic Modeling, 24(4), s.690-711.
  • Grossman, G.M. and E. Helpman, (1991), Innovation and growth in the global economy, Cambridge: The MIT Press.
  • Hall, R.E., (1988), Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption. Journal of Political Economy, 96(2), s.339-357.
  • Jung, H. and Thorbecke, E., (2003), “The Impact of Public Education Expenditure on Human Capital, Growth and Poverty in Tanzania and Zambia: A General Equilibrium Approach”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 25, s.701-725.
  • King, R. G., Rebelo, S. T., (1993), “Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model”, American Economic Review, 83(4), s.908-931.
  • Lucas, R.E., (1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, s.3-44.
  • OECD, (2008), Main Science and Technology Indicators, Paris.
  • OECD, (2011), Education At A Glance, Paris.
  • Romer, P.M. (1990), “Endogenous Technological Change”, Journal of Political Economy 98(5), s.71-102.
  • Romer, P.M., (1989), “Human Capital and Growth: Theory and Evidence”, NBER Working Paper.
  • Sanayi ve Ticaret Bakanlığı, (2010), Türkiye Sanayi Strateji belgesi, 2011-2014, Aralık, Ankara Sequeira, Tiago Neves, (baskıda), “R&D Spillovers in an Endogenous Growth Model with Physical Capital, Human Capital and Varieties” Macroeconomic Dynamics.
  • Sequeira, Tiago Neves, (2000), “On the Effects of Human Capital and R&D Policies in an Endogenous Growth Model” Economic Modeling, 25, s.968-982.
  • Solow, R.M., (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), s.65-94.
  • Tanzi, V. and K. Chu (eds), (1998), Income Distribution and High-quality Growth, Cambridge MA, MIT Press.
  • Temple, J., (2001a), “Growth Effects of Education and Social Capital in OECD Countries”, OECD Economic Studies, 33, 2001/II.
  • TÜSĐAD, (2011), Türkiye’de Büyümenin kısıtları: Bir Önceliklendirme Çalısması, Đstanbul, Tüsiad Yay.
  • UNCTAD, (2005), World Investment Report, Geneva.
  • Voyvoda, E. and E. Yeldan, (2005a), “Managing Turkish Debt: An OLG Investigation of the IMF’s Fiscal Programming Model for Turkey”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 27(6), s.743-765
  • Voyvoda, E. and E. Yeldan, (2005b), “IMF Programs, Fiscal Policy and Growth: Investigation of Macroeconomic Alternatives in an OLG Model of Growth for Turkey” Comparative Economic Systems, 47, s.41-79.
  • Voyvoda, E. and E. Yeldan, (2011), “Public Policy and Growth In Canada: An Applied Endogenous Growth Model with Human and Knowledge Capital Accumulation”, Research Paper prepared for Human Resources And Skills Development Canada, Mimeo.

An Applied Endogenous Growth Model with Human and Knowledge Capital Accumulation for the Turkish Economy

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 2, 21 - 60, 01.05.2012

Öz

The main objective of this research is to analyze and assess the interactions among knowledge-driven growth, acquisition of human capital, and strategic public policymaking for the Turkish economy within the context of a general equilibrium model. This model aims to investigate those policies that are considered
to foster the development of human capital (such as investments in education) and enhance total factor productivity through direct investments in fixed capital and innovation (such as subsidies for R&D activities). Through this model, we seek answers to the following question: for a government with significant budgetary constraints, which type of public subsidization policies are more conducive to enhancing economic growth and capital accumulation: promotion of human capital formation through subsidies to education, or promotion of new R&D advances through subsidies for R&D activities? According to the model findings, a single-focus strategy of subsidizing only the education sector in order to promote human capital formation falls short of achieving desirable growth in the medium to long run. In fact, the growth and welfare results will be disappointingly weak unless increased human capital leads to a rise in the number of research personnel employed in
the R&D sector. That being the case, it can be argued that public policy should be directed toward R&D promotion in the medium to long term, to complement an emphasis on education that is aimed at sustaining human capital formation.

Kaynakça

  • Aghion, P. and P. Howitt, (1998), Endogenous Growth Theory, Cambridge, MIT Press.
  • Arrow, K.J., (1962), “The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing”, Review of Economic Studies, 29 (June), s.155-173.
  • Barro, R.J., (1991), “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (2), s.407-443.
  • Cass, D., (1965), “Optimum Growth in an Aggregate Model of Capital Accumulation” Review of Economic Studies, s.233-240.
  • Devlet Planlama Teskilatı (Kalkınma Bakanlığı), (2011), Dokuzuncu Kalkınma Planı, 2011 Yılı Programı, Ankara.
  • Diao, X., J. Rattso and H.E. Stokke, (2005), “International Spillovers, Productivity Growth and Openness in Thailand: an Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis”, Journal of Development Economics, 76, s.429-450.
  • Diao, X., T. Roe and E. Yeldan, (1999), “Strategic Policies and Growth: An Applied Model of R&D-Driven Endogenous Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 60, s.343-380.
  • Diao, X., T. Roe and E. Yeldan, (1999), “How Fiscal Mismanagement May Impede Trade Reform: Lessons From an Intertemporal, Multi-sector General Equilibrium Model for Turkey”, The Developing Economies, 37(1), March.
  • DPT, (2010), Bilgi Toplumu Đstatistikleri, Ankara.
  • Fougère M., S. Harvey, J. Mercenier and M. Mérette, (2009), “Population Ageing, Time Allocation and Human Capital: A general equilibrium analysis for Canada”, Economic Modeling, 26, s.30-39.
  • Fougère M., J. Mercenier and M. Mérette, (2007), “A Sectoral and Occupational Analysis of Population Ageing in Canada Using a Dynamic CGE Overlapping Generations Model”, Economic Modeling, 24(4), s.690-711.
  • Grossman, G.M. and E. Helpman, (1991), Innovation and growth in the global economy, Cambridge: The MIT Press.
  • Hall, R.E., (1988), Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption. Journal of Political Economy, 96(2), s.339-357.
  • Jung, H. and Thorbecke, E., (2003), “The Impact of Public Education Expenditure on Human Capital, Growth and Poverty in Tanzania and Zambia: A General Equilibrium Approach”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 25, s.701-725.
  • King, R. G., Rebelo, S. T., (1993), “Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model”, American Economic Review, 83(4), s.908-931.
  • Lucas, R.E., (1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, s.3-44.
  • OECD, (2008), Main Science and Technology Indicators, Paris.
  • OECD, (2011), Education At A Glance, Paris.
  • Romer, P.M. (1990), “Endogenous Technological Change”, Journal of Political Economy 98(5), s.71-102.
  • Romer, P.M., (1989), “Human Capital and Growth: Theory and Evidence”, NBER Working Paper.
  • Sanayi ve Ticaret Bakanlığı, (2010), Türkiye Sanayi Strateji belgesi, 2011-2014, Aralık, Ankara Sequeira, Tiago Neves, (baskıda), “R&D Spillovers in an Endogenous Growth Model with Physical Capital, Human Capital and Varieties” Macroeconomic Dynamics.
  • Sequeira, Tiago Neves, (2000), “On the Effects of Human Capital and R&D Policies in an Endogenous Growth Model” Economic Modeling, 25, s.968-982.
  • Solow, R.M., (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), s.65-94.
  • Tanzi, V. and K. Chu (eds), (1998), Income Distribution and High-quality Growth, Cambridge MA, MIT Press.
  • Temple, J., (2001a), “Growth Effects of Education and Social Capital in OECD Countries”, OECD Economic Studies, 33, 2001/II.
  • TÜSĐAD, (2011), Türkiye’de Büyümenin kısıtları: Bir Önceliklendirme Çalısması, Đstanbul, Tüsiad Yay.
  • UNCTAD, (2005), World Investment Report, Geneva.
  • Voyvoda, E. and E. Yeldan, (2005a), “Managing Turkish Debt: An OLG Investigation of the IMF’s Fiscal Programming Model for Turkey”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 27(6), s.743-765
  • Voyvoda, E. and E. Yeldan, (2005b), “IMF Programs, Fiscal Policy and Growth: Investigation of Macroeconomic Alternatives in an OLG Model of Growth for Turkey” Comparative Economic Systems, 47, s.41-79.
  • Voyvoda, E. and E. Yeldan, (2011), “Public Policy and Growth In Canada: An Applied Endogenous Growth Model with Human and Knowledge Capital Accumulation”, Research Paper prepared for Human Resources And Skills Development Canada, Mimeo.
Toplam 30 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Erinç Yeldan Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Mayıs 2012
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2012 Cilt: 1 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Yeldan, E. (2012). Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Beşeri Sermaye ve Bilgi Sermayesi Birikimine Dayalı Bir İçsel Büyüme Modeli. Ekonomi-Tek, 1(2), 21-60.