Chinese Economic Expansion, Openness, Resource Curse and Deindustrialization in the MENA Region

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 25 - 46, 01.05.2019

Fatma Doğruel , A. Suut Doğruel

Öz

The deindustrialization concept is used to define the decline in the share of manufacturing as an economy reaches to a high-income level. Kuznets indicates that a decreasing trend in manufacturing output and employment is a natural outcome of development of a country However, in addition to the structural change a la Kuznets, the worldwide shift of manufacturing to China is also shown another factor, which may accelerate the deindustrialization in developed and developing countries. The paper aims to examine the main determinants of the manufacturing development in the selected MENA countries. The Kuznets’ structural change hypothesis is taken as the starting point of the empirical model specification in the paper. The model is also designed to capture the effects of openness and resource curse, in addition to the Chinese economic expansion. A panel data estimation is used for empirical models. The results reveal that there is no common Kuznets type invers U curve and resource curse dominates the industrialization in the MENA countries. The model estimated do not detect any impact of Chinese expansion on MENA manufacturing.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Deindustrialization, MENA countries, Chinese economic expansion, openness, resource curse

Teşekkür

Earlier versions of this study have been presented at the MEEA-2014 and -2017, ICE-TEA-2016 conferences, and Boğaziçi University Department of Economics & Confucius Institute at BU Joint Seminar (2016) and PricewaterhouseCoopers-ITU Economics Seminar (2017). We thank the participants of these events for their valuable comments. We also thank Yasemin Özerkek and Burcu Düzgün Öncel for their contributions.

Çin’in Ekonomik Genişlemesi, Dışa Açıklık, Doğal Kaynak Laneti ve MENA Bölgesinde Sanayisizleşme

Öz

Sanayisizleşme kavramı, bir ekonomi yüksek gelir düzeyine ulaştığında imalat sanayinin payının azalmasını tanımlamak için kullanılır. Kuznets, üretim çıktısı ve istihdamdaki düşüş eğiliminin bir ülkenin kalkınmasının doğal bir sonucu olduğunu belirtir. Bununla birlikte, Kuznets'teki yapısal değişime ek olarak, dünya çapında üretimin Çin'e kayması da gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde sanayisizleşmeyi hızlandırabilecek başka bir faktör olarak gösterilmektedir. Makale, seçilmiş MENA ülkelerinde imalat sanayinin gelişiminin belirleyicilerini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Kuznets'in yapısal değişim hipotezi, makaledeki ampirik model tanımlamasında başlangıç noktası olarak alındı. Model, Çin'in ekonomik genişlemesine ek olarak dışa açıklık ve doğal kaynak laneti etkilerini de yakalayacak şekilde de tasarlandı. Ampirik modellerin tahmini için panel veri kullanıldı. Sonuçlar, MENA ülkelerinde ortak bir Kuznets tipi ters U eğrisinin olmadığını ve doğal kaynak lanetinin sanayileşmeyi belirlediğini ortaya koydu. Tahmin edilen model MENA imalat sanayisi üzerinde Çin yayılmasının herhangi bir etkisini belirlemedi.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sanayisizleşme, MENA ülkeleri, Çin’in ekonomik genişlemesi, dışa açıklık, doğal kaynak laneti

Kaynakça

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