Araştırma Makalesi
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Chinese Economic Expansion, Openness, Resource Curse and Deindustrialization in the MENA Region

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 25 - 46, 01.05.2019

Öz

The deindustrialization concept is used to define the decline in the share of manufacturing as an economy reaches to a high-income level. Kuznets indicates that a decreasing trend in manufacturing output and employment is a natural outcome of development of a country However, in addition to the structural change a la Kuznets, the worldwide shift of manufacturing to China is also shown another factor, which may accelerate the deindustrialization in developed and developing countries. The paper aims to examine the main determinants of the manufacturing development in the selected MENA countries. The Kuznets’ structural change hypothesis is taken as the starting point of the empirical model specification in the paper. The model is also designed to capture the effects of openness and resource curse, in addition to the Chinese economic expansion. A panel data estimation is used for empirical models. The results reveal that there is no common Kuznets type invers U curve and resource curse dominates the industrialization in the MENA countries. The model estimated do not detect any impact of Chinese expansion on MENA manufacturing.

Teşekkür

Earlier versions of this study have been presented at the MEEA-2014 and -2017, ICE-TEA-2016 conferences, and Boğaziçi University Department of Economics & Confucius Institute at BU Joint Seminar (2016) and PricewaterhouseCoopers-ITU Economics Seminar (2017). We thank the participants of these events for their valuable comments. We also thank Yasemin Özerkek and Burcu Düzgün Öncel for their contributions.

Kaynakça

  • Auty, R. M. (1995), "Economic Development and the Resource Curse Thesis," in Oliver Morrissey, Frances Stewart, eds., Economic and Political Reform in Developing Countries, UK, Palgrave Macmillan, 58-80.
  • Auty, R. M. and H. I. Furlonge (2019), The Rent Curse: Natural Resources, Policy Choice, and Economic Development, Oxford, United Kingdom, Oxford University Press.
  • Bernard, A. B., V. Smeets and F. Warzynski (2016), Rethinking Deindustrialization, NBER Working Paper No. 22114.
  • Blackaby, F. (Ed.) (1979), De-industrialisation. National Institute of Economic and Social Research Economic Policy Papers No. 2. London, Heinemann.
  • Boumol, W. J. (1967), Macroeconomic of Unbalanced Growth: The Anatomy of Urban Crisis. American Economic Review, 57(3), 415-426.
  • Brown, C.J.F., and T.D. Scherif (1979), De-Industrialization: A Background paper,” in Blackaby (1979).
  • Chenery, H. B. (1960), “Pattern of Industrial Growth,” American Economic Review, 50 (4), 624-654.
  • Chenery, H. B. and L. Taylor (1968), “Development Patterns: Among Countries and Over Time,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 50 (4), 391-416.
  • Clark, C. (1940), The Conditions of Economic Progress, London, Mac Millan.
  • Corden, W. M. and J. P. Neary (1982), “Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy,” The Economic Journal, 92(368), 825-848.
  • Cornwall, J. (1980), “Modern Capitalism and the Trend toward Deindustrialization,” Journal of Economic Issues, 14(2), 275-289.
  • Dimaranan, B., E. Ianchovichina and W. Martin (2009), “How will growth in China and India affect the world economy?” Review of World Economics, 145(3): 551-571. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-009-0029-y.
  • Doğruel, F. and A. S. Doğruel (2018), Bıçak Sırtında Büyüme ve İstikrar: Küreselleşmenin Yükselişi ve Düşüşü, Second Edition, Istanbul: Istanbul Bilgi University Publication.
  • Frankel, J.A. (2012), “The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions,” in Arezki, R., Pattillo, C.A., Quintyn, M., and Zhu, M. eds., Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries, Washington, DC, IMF, 7–34.
  • Fusch, V.R. (1968), The Service Economy, New York: NBER.
  • Hanson, G. and R. Robertson (2010), "China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries," in Robert C. Feenstra and Shang-Jin Wei, eds., China's Growing Role in World Trade, Chicago and London, University of Chicago Press, 137-159.
  • Kongsamut, P., S. Rebelo and X. D. Danyang (2001), “Beyond Balanced Growth,” Review of Economic Studies, 68(4), 869-882.
  • Kuznets, S. (1973), “Modern Economic Growth: Findings and Reflections,” The American Economic Review, 63 (3), 247-258.
  • Kuznets, S. (1959), Six Lectures on Growth, Glencoe, III., Free Press.
  • Kuznets, S. (1958), “Quantitative Aspect of the Economic Growth of Nations; III, Industrial Distribution of the Labor Force by States, United States 1919-21 to 1955,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 6(4), 1-128.
  • Kuznets, S. (1957), “Quantitative Aspect of the Economic Growth of Nations; II.” Economic Development and Cultural Change, Supplement to Vol. V (4), 3-111.
  • Lengellé, M. (1966), The Growing Importance of the Service Sector in Member Countries, Paris: OECD.
  • O’Rourke, K. H. and J. G. Williamson (2002), “When Did Globalization Begin?” European Review of Economic History, 6(1), 23-50.
  • Maizels, A. (1970), Growth and Trade, Cambridge, The University Press.
  • Neary, J. P. (1982), “Real and monetary aspects of the 'Dutch disease,” UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series; No. 5, Publisher University College Dublin. School of Economics. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/1398
  • Rodrik, D. (2016), “Premature deindustrialization,” Journal of Economic Growth, 21(1), 1–33.
  • Rowthorn, R. and R. Ramaswamy (1999), “Growth, Trade, and Deindustrialization,” IMF Staff Papers, 46(1), 18-41.
  • Rowthorn, R. and R. Ramaswamy (1997), “Deindustrialization–Its Causes and Implications,” Economic Issues, No:10, International Monetary Fund, September.
  • Rowthorn, R. and J.R. Wells (1987), Deindustrialization of Foreign Trade, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
  • Sachs, J., and A. Warner (2001), “The Curse of Natural Resources,” European Economic Review, 45(4-6), 827-838.
  • Saeger, S. (1997), “Globalization and deindustrialization: Myth and reality in the OECD,” Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, 133(4), 579-608.
  • Singh, A. (1977), “UK Industry and the World Economy: A Case of Deindustrializaiton?” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1(2), 113-136.
  • The World Bank, WDI (World Development Indicators)
  • Wan Jr., Henry (2005), "Chinese Trade Expansion and Development and Growth in Today's World," DEGIT Conference Papers c010_004, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  • Watson, W. (1981), Book Review. Journal of Comparative Economics, 5(1), 92-95.
  • Wijnbergen, S. van. (1984), “The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease After All?” The Economic Journal, 94 (373), 41-55.
  • Wood, A. and J. Mayer (2011), “Has China de-industrialised other developing countries?” Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 147(2), 325-350.

Çin’in Ekonomik Genişlemesi, Dışa Açıklık, Doğal Kaynak Laneti ve MENA Bölgesinde Sanayisizleşme

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 25 - 46, 01.05.2019

Öz

Sanayisizleşme kavramı, bir ekonomi yüksek gelir düzeyine ulaştığında imalat sanayinin payının azalmasını tanımlamak için kullanılır. Kuznets, üretim çıktısı ve istihdamdaki düşüş eğiliminin bir ülkenin kalkınmasının doğal bir sonucu olduğunu belirtir. Bununla birlikte, Kuznets'teki yapısal değişime ek olarak, dünya çapında üretimin Çin'e kayması da gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde sanayisizleşmeyi hızlandırabilecek başka bir faktör olarak gösterilmektedir. Makale, seçilmiş MENA ülkelerinde imalat sanayinin gelişiminin belirleyicilerini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Kuznets'in yapısal değişim hipotezi, makaledeki ampirik model tanımlamasında başlangıç noktası olarak alındı. Model, Çin'in ekonomik genişlemesine ek olarak dışa açıklık ve doğal kaynak laneti etkilerini de yakalayacak şekilde de tasarlandı. Ampirik modellerin tahmini için panel veri kullanıldı. Sonuçlar, MENA ülkelerinde ortak bir Kuznets tipi ters U eğrisinin olmadığını ve doğal kaynak lanetinin sanayileşmeyi belirlediğini ortaya koydu. Tahmin edilen model MENA imalat sanayisi üzerinde Çin yayılmasının herhangi bir etkisini belirlemedi.

Kaynakça

  • Auty, R. M. (1995), "Economic Development and the Resource Curse Thesis," in Oliver Morrissey, Frances Stewart, eds., Economic and Political Reform in Developing Countries, UK, Palgrave Macmillan, 58-80.
  • Auty, R. M. and H. I. Furlonge (2019), The Rent Curse: Natural Resources, Policy Choice, and Economic Development, Oxford, United Kingdom, Oxford University Press.
  • Bernard, A. B., V. Smeets and F. Warzynski (2016), Rethinking Deindustrialization, NBER Working Paper No. 22114.
  • Blackaby, F. (Ed.) (1979), De-industrialisation. National Institute of Economic and Social Research Economic Policy Papers No. 2. London, Heinemann.
  • Boumol, W. J. (1967), Macroeconomic of Unbalanced Growth: The Anatomy of Urban Crisis. American Economic Review, 57(3), 415-426.
  • Brown, C.J.F., and T.D. Scherif (1979), De-Industrialization: A Background paper,” in Blackaby (1979).
  • Chenery, H. B. (1960), “Pattern of Industrial Growth,” American Economic Review, 50 (4), 624-654.
  • Chenery, H. B. and L. Taylor (1968), “Development Patterns: Among Countries and Over Time,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 50 (4), 391-416.
  • Clark, C. (1940), The Conditions of Economic Progress, London, Mac Millan.
  • Corden, W. M. and J. P. Neary (1982), “Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy,” The Economic Journal, 92(368), 825-848.
  • Cornwall, J. (1980), “Modern Capitalism and the Trend toward Deindustrialization,” Journal of Economic Issues, 14(2), 275-289.
  • Dimaranan, B., E. Ianchovichina and W. Martin (2009), “How will growth in China and India affect the world economy?” Review of World Economics, 145(3): 551-571. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-009-0029-y.
  • Doğruel, F. and A. S. Doğruel (2018), Bıçak Sırtında Büyüme ve İstikrar: Küreselleşmenin Yükselişi ve Düşüşü, Second Edition, Istanbul: Istanbul Bilgi University Publication.
  • Frankel, J.A. (2012), “The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions,” in Arezki, R., Pattillo, C.A., Quintyn, M., and Zhu, M. eds., Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries, Washington, DC, IMF, 7–34.
  • Fusch, V.R. (1968), The Service Economy, New York: NBER.
  • Hanson, G. and R. Robertson (2010), "China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries," in Robert C. Feenstra and Shang-Jin Wei, eds., China's Growing Role in World Trade, Chicago and London, University of Chicago Press, 137-159.
  • Kongsamut, P., S. Rebelo and X. D. Danyang (2001), “Beyond Balanced Growth,” Review of Economic Studies, 68(4), 869-882.
  • Kuznets, S. (1973), “Modern Economic Growth: Findings and Reflections,” The American Economic Review, 63 (3), 247-258.
  • Kuznets, S. (1959), Six Lectures on Growth, Glencoe, III., Free Press.
  • Kuznets, S. (1958), “Quantitative Aspect of the Economic Growth of Nations; III, Industrial Distribution of the Labor Force by States, United States 1919-21 to 1955,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 6(4), 1-128.
  • Kuznets, S. (1957), “Quantitative Aspect of the Economic Growth of Nations; II.” Economic Development and Cultural Change, Supplement to Vol. V (4), 3-111.
  • Lengellé, M. (1966), The Growing Importance of the Service Sector in Member Countries, Paris: OECD.
  • O’Rourke, K. H. and J. G. Williamson (2002), “When Did Globalization Begin?” European Review of Economic History, 6(1), 23-50.
  • Maizels, A. (1970), Growth and Trade, Cambridge, The University Press.
  • Neary, J. P. (1982), “Real and monetary aspects of the 'Dutch disease,” UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series; No. 5, Publisher University College Dublin. School of Economics. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/1398
  • Rodrik, D. (2016), “Premature deindustrialization,” Journal of Economic Growth, 21(1), 1–33.
  • Rowthorn, R. and R. Ramaswamy (1999), “Growth, Trade, and Deindustrialization,” IMF Staff Papers, 46(1), 18-41.
  • Rowthorn, R. and R. Ramaswamy (1997), “Deindustrialization–Its Causes and Implications,” Economic Issues, No:10, International Monetary Fund, September.
  • Rowthorn, R. and J.R. Wells (1987), Deindustrialization of Foreign Trade, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
  • Sachs, J., and A. Warner (2001), “The Curse of Natural Resources,” European Economic Review, 45(4-6), 827-838.
  • Saeger, S. (1997), “Globalization and deindustrialization: Myth and reality in the OECD,” Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, 133(4), 579-608.
  • Singh, A. (1977), “UK Industry and the World Economy: A Case of Deindustrializaiton?” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1(2), 113-136.
  • The World Bank, WDI (World Development Indicators)
  • Wan Jr., Henry (2005), "Chinese Trade Expansion and Development and Growth in Today's World," DEGIT Conference Papers c010_004, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  • Watson, W. (1981), Book Review. Journal of Comparative Economics, 5(1), 92-95.
  • Wijnbergen, S. van. (1984), “The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease After All?” The Economic Journal, 94 (373), 41-55.
  • Wood, A. and J. Mayer (2011), “Has China de-industrialised other developing countries?” Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 147(2), 325-350.
Toplam 37 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Fatma Doğruel 0000-0003-1113-4621

A. Suut Doğruel 0000-0002-4933-5528

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Mayıs 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2019 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Doğruel, F., & Doğruel, A. S. (2019). Chinese Economic Expansion, Openness, Resource Curse and Deindustrialization in the MENA Region. Ekonomi-Tek, 8(2), 25-46.