Öz
Instability and uncertainty have been the hallmark of Argentina's political economy throughout its history. Volatility in GDP inflation, the exchange rate, the terms of trade, and capital flows characterizes the burden that Argentines— ordinary citizens, investors, and policymakers—have had to endure for as long as anyone can remember. The internal design of monetary, financial, and capital-market institutions has made possible a 13-zero depletion of the currency and several confiscations of bank deposits. Argentine fiscal institutions have long been partial to short-term, pro-cyclical planning. Self-centered discretion has been the rule, with complete disregard for the huge costs created by uncertainty. Is there any way for Argentina to rid itself of this disastrous tendency and put itself on a path to sustainable growth and improved welfare?
Anahtar Kelimeler
Teşekkür
This paper was prepared for the Turkish Economic Association’s 19th National Economic Symposium on “Economic Decisions and Policies under Uncertainty,” held in Kyrenia, November 3-4, 2017. I would like to thank Prof. Dr. Ricardo López Murphy for his valuable insights and Prof. Dr. Ercan Uygur for his invitation and enriching comments. The views expressed and any errors are my own.
Kaynakça
- Acemoğlu, D, S. Johnson, J. Robinson and Y. Thaicharoen, (2003), “Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crisis, and Growth,” Journal of Monetary Economics 50, 49-123.
- Ávila, J., (2011a), "Fiscal Deficit, Macro-uncertainty, and Growth in Argentina," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 456, Universidad del CEMA.
- Ávila, J., (2011b), "The Welfare Cost of Argentine Risk," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 471, Universidad del CEMA.
- della Paolera G. and A. Taylor, (2001), Straining at the Anchor: The Argentine Currency Board and the Search for Macroeconomic Stability, 1880-1935, NBER Books.
- El Pais, (1983), Argentina Congela los Depósitos en Moneda Extranjera con Vencimiento Hasta el 4 de Diciembre; by M. Prieto (October 7).
- International Monetary Fund, (2017) Datamapper.
- Jurado K., S. Ludvigson and S. Ng, (2015), Measuring Uncertainty. American Economic Review, 105 (3), 1177-1216.
- La Nación, (2002), La Primera Pesificación Argentina, by S. O´Donnell (January 27).
- The New York Times, (2008), Argentina Nationalizes $30 Billion in Private Pensions; by A. Barrionuevo, (October 21).
- The Economist, (2014), The Tragedy of Argentina. A Century of Decline (February 17).
Öz
Instability and uncertainty have been the hallmark of Argentina's political economy throughout its history. Volatility in GDP inflation, the exchange rate, the terms of trade, and capital flows characterizes the burden that Argentines— ordinary citizens, investors, and policymakers—have had to endure for as long as anyone can remember. The internal design of monetary, financial, and capital-market institutions has made possible a 13-zero depletion of the currency and several confiscations of bank deposits. Argentine fiscal institutions have long been partial to short-term, pro-cyclical planning. Self-centered discretion has been the rule, with complete disregard for the huge costs created by uncertainty. Is there any way for Argentina to rid itself of this disastrous tendency and put itself on a path to sustainable growth and improved welfare?
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Acemoğlu, D, S. Johnson, J. Robinson and Y. Thaicharoen, (2003), “Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crisis, and Growth,” Journal of Monetary Economics 50, 49-123.
- Ávila, J., (2011a), "Fiscal Deficit, Macro-uncertainty, and Growth in Argentina," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 456, Universidad del CEMA.
- Ávila, J., (2011b), "The Welfare Cost of Argentine Risk," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 471, Universidad del CEMA.
- della Paolera G. and A. Taylor, (2001), Straining at the Anchor: The Argentine Currency Board and the Search for Macroeconomic Stability, 1880-1935, NBER Books.
- El Pais, (1983), Argentina Congela los Depósitos en Moneda Extranjera con Vencimiento Hasta el 4 de Diciembre; by M. Prieto (October 7).
- International Monetary Fund, (2017) Datamapper.
- Jurado K., S. Ludvigson and S. Ng, (2015), Measuring Uncertainty. American Economic Review, 105 (3), 1177-1216.
- La Nación, (2002), La Primera Pesificación Argentina, by S. O´Donnell (January 27).
- The New York Times, (2008), Argentina Nationalizes $30 Billion in Private Pensions; by A. Barrionuevo, (October 21).
- The Economist, (2014), The Tragedy of Argentina. A Century of Decline (February 17).
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonomi |
| Bölüm | Araştırma Makaleleri |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 1 Mayıs 2017 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2017 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2 |