“Mathiness” ve İstatistik, Ulusal Gelir Hesapları, Matematik ve Ekonometri Konusunda Keynes

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 67 - 96, 01.05.2014

Ercan Uygur

Öz

Paul Romer, 2015’teki bir makalesinde ve bazı “blog” yazılarında iktisatta matematiğin uygunsuz kullanımını “mathiness” kavramı ile ifade etti ve bir tartışma baslattı. Bu konunun yakından ve daha genis olarak içinde olmasına karsılık, John Maynard Keynes’e bu tartısmalarda atıf yapılmadı. Keynes’in istatistik, ulusal gelir hesapları, matematik, ekonometri gibi yöntemlerin iktisatta kullanılmasıyla ilgili görüsleri nedir? Bu konuda yaklaşımını nasıl değerlendirebiliriz? Bu yazının birinci amacı, bu ve benzeri sorulara yanıt vermeye çalışmaktır. İkinci amaç, Keynes’in olasılık, endeks sayıları ve genel olarak istatistiğe; ulusal gelir hesapları ve diğer ekonomik istatistiklere; ekonometriye; ekonomiyle ve istatistiklerle ilgili kurumlara yaptığı katkıları ve etkileri incelemektir. Bir üçüncü amaç, (i) para miktarı ile Carli ve Jevons
fiyat endeksleri, ve (ii) mali çarpan etkisinin nominal mi, reel mi olduğu konularındaki tartış“Mathiness”,maları açıklamak ve irdelemektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

“Mathiness”, Keynes, istatistik ve olasılık, endeks sayıları ve para miktarı, iktisatta matematik, ekonometrik yöntemler, ulusal gelir hesapları, nominal çarpan etkisi

Teşekkür

Bu makaleyi okuyup görüş bildiren iki hakeme ve Recep Kök ve Bülent Güloğlu’na; tartışma metni aşamasında okuyan Celal Küçüker ve Ercan Erkul’a teşekkür ederim. Makalede bulunabilecek tüm eksik ve yanlışların sorumluluğu elbette bana aittir.

“Mathiness” and Keynes on Statistics, National Income Accounts, Mathematics and Econometrics

Öz

In a paper and some “blog” essays in 2015, Paul Romer expressed the inappropriate use of mathematics in economics with the term “mathiness” and started a debate. Although John Maynard Keynes was closely and more widely involved in this issue, there was no reference to him in this debate. What were the views of Keynes on the use of statistics, national-income accounts, mathematics and econometrics in economics? How can we evaluate his approach to this matter? The first aim of this paper is to try to answer these and similar questions. The second aim is to look into Keynes’s contributions to--and his influence on--the use in economics of probability, index numbers and statistics in general; national-income accounts and other economic statistics; econometrics; and institutions related to economics and statistics. A third
aim is to explain and evaluate the debates over (i) the quantity of money and Carli and Jevons price indices, and (ii) whether fiscal multiplier effects are nominal or real.

Anahtar Kelimeler

“Mathiness”, Keynes, statistics and probability, index numbers and quantity of money, mathematics in economics, econometric methods, national income accounts, nominal multiplier effect

Kaynakça

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