Türkiye İmalat Sanayiinde Enerji Tüketiminin Bir Analizi (2003-2014)

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 1, 1 - 48, 08.03.2024

Aynur Yılmaz Ataman

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye imalat sanayinde enerji talebindeki değişimin itici faktörleri ve bu faktörlerin enerji tüketimi ile üretim artışı arasındaki ayrışmaya katkıları 2003-2014 dönemi için LMDI-I ve Tapio ayrıştırma endeksi ile analiz edilmektedir. Çalışmada, üretim artışı ile ölçülen aktivite etkisinin, enerji tüketimindeki artışın temel itici gücü olduğu bulunurken, enerji yoğun sektörlerin sektörel payları ve enerji yoğunluklarındaki değişimlerin de enerji talebini önemli ölçüde etkileyebildiği görülmüştür. Bu bağlamda, alt sektörlerin çoğunun payı artmış olmasına karşın, net yapısal etki, enerji talebini azaltıcı yönde olmuştur. Yoğunluk etkisine bakıldığında ise çoğu imalat sanayinde farklı düzeylerde iyileşmeler olduğu ve enerji verimliliğindeki bu iyileşmelerin toplam enerji talebi üzerindeki nihai etkisinin her sektör için farklı olduğu görülmektedir. Bu doğrultuda, sektörel payları ve enerji yoğunluklarındaki değişimlerin toplam enerji talebini en fazla etkilediği ilk altı sektör ana metaller, kimyasallar ve kimyasal ürünler, tekstil, diğer metalik olmayan mineral ürünler, gıda ve kauçuk olmuştur. Ayrışma analizinde ise, güçlü ayrışmanın olduğu tek alt sektörün fabrikasyon metal ürünleri olduğu görülmektedir. Ayrıca imalat sanayinde ayrışmanın geçici ve çok sınırlı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ancak üç yılda (2005, 2008 ve 2013), tam bir ayrışma gerçekleşmiş olup, enerji verimliliğindeki iyileşmeler ve sektörel dağılımdaki değişiklikler buna ana katkı sağlamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Indeks Ayrıştırma Analizi, Ayrışma Analizi, LMDI, Tapio Ayrışma Endeksi, Imalat Sanayi, Enerji Tüketimi, WIOD

Analysis of the Energy Consumption of Manufacturing Industry in Türkiye (2003-2014)

Öz

In this study, the driving forces of energy demand in Türkiye's manufacturing industry and their contribution to the decoupling between energy consumption and production increase are analysed via LMDI-I and the Tapio decoupling index between 2003 and 2014. It was seen that while the increase in production was the main driver of the rise in energy consumption, changes in the shares and energy intensities of sub-sectors also influenced energy consumption significantly. In that regard, despite the increase in most sub-sectoral shares, net structural impact contributed to reducing the energy demand. As for the intensity effect, it is seen that in most manufacturing industries, there were improvements at varying levels, and the final impact of these improvements on total energy demand was different for each sector. In this regard, the first six sectors in which changes in their sectoral shares and energy intensities had the most impact on total energy demand were found to be basic metals, chemicals and chemical products, textiles, other non-metallic mineral products, food, and rubber. Decoupling analyses showed that the fabricated metal products sector was the only sub-sector in which there was a strong decoupling. It was also found that decoupling occurred temporarily and was very limited in the manufacturing industry. However, in three years (2005, 2008 and 2013), there was a strong decoupling, with improvements in energy efficiency and changes in sectoral distribution being the main contributors.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Index Decomposition Analysis, Decoupling Analysis, LMDI, Tapio Decoupling Index, Manufacturing, Energy Consumption, WIOD

Kaynakça

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