THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON TOURISM REVENUES IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY
Öz
Tourism sector is one of the sectors that interacts with economic factors like GDP, export, import, exchange rate in economic and social life. Inflation is the most significant economic factor because of the fact that which affects sustainability of financial management of most of the sectors in terms of increase the prices of goods and services. The aim of the research is to examine the effect of inflation on tourism revenues in the conjuncture where inflation volatility increases. Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) method has been used because both series are stationary at level. Impulse-response function shocks for series affect positively both first month and fade in effects in the remaining months. Variance decomposition shows that total change in tourism revenue is explained in the first 10 months by itself and also %73 change in inflation in the first 10 month is explained by itself and 27% is explained by tourism revenues. Also, there is one-way causality from inflation to tourism revenues according to the VAR short term analysis.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Altındağ, İ. & Akay, Ö. (2021). “Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirini Etkileyen Faktörlerin Önem Düzeylerinin Belirlenmesi” [Elektronik Sürüm]. Adıyaman University Journal of Social Science Institute, 14(37): 397-426 (Access Date: 24.09.2024).
- Atay Kayış, A. & Aygün, Ş. (2016). “A Model Offer for Explaining the Effect of Tourism Sector on Inflation in Turkey” [Elektronik Sürüm]. International Journal of Business, Economics and Management Perspectives, 1: 37-57 (Access Date: 18.05.2025).
- Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1979). “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root” [Electronic Version]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366): 427-431 (Access Date: 20.05.2025).
- Dinçer, F. İ., Dinçer, M. Z. & Yılmaz, S. (2015). “The Economic Contribution of Turkish Tourism Entrepreneurship on the Development of Tourism Movements In Islamic Countries” [Elektronik Sürüm]. Procedia Social and Behavioral Science, 195: 413-422 (Access Date: 07.10.2024).
- Elliot, G., Rothenberg, T. J. & Stock, J. H. (1992). “Efficient Tests for An Autoregressive Unit Root” [Electronic Version]. NBER Technical Working Papers Series, 130: 1-36 (Access Date: 20.05.2025).
- Elliot, G., Rothenberg, T. J. & Stock, J. H. (1996). “Efficient Tests for An Autoregressive Unit Root” [Electronic Version]. Econometrica, 64(4): 813-836 (Access Date: 21.05.2025).
- Karadağ, H. (2021). “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Turizm Gelirlerinin TÜFE’ye Etkisinin İncelenmesi: MWALD Temelli Nedensellik Analizi” [Elektronik Sürüm]. Journal of Tourism Intelligence and Smartness, 4(1), 31–42 (Access Date: 18.05.2025).
- Kırca, M. ve Özer, M. (2020). “The impact of tourism demand on regional inflation in Turkey” [Elektronik Sürüm]. Journal of the Geographical Institute ‘Jovan Cvijic’ SASA. 70 (3): 241-254 (Access Date: 18.05.2025).
- Kurt, Ü. & Kılıç, C. (2018). “Türkiye’deki Ekonomik ve Politik İstikrarın Turizm Talebi Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı” [Elektronik Sürüm]. İstanbul Journal of Economics, 68(2): 243-264 (Access Date: 04.10.2024).
- Kwiatkowski et.al. (1992). “Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?” [Electronic Version]. Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3): 159-178 (Access Date: 21.05.2025).