TİCARET POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİĞİNİN HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASASINA ASİMETRİK ETKİLERİ: MARKOV REJİM DEĞİŞİM MODELİNDEN KANITLAR

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 78 - 90, 30.06.2025

Ayşegül Şahin

https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.1643258

Öz

Bu çalışma, ticaret politikası belirsizliğinin finansal piyasalar üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmek amacıyla Markov Rejim Değişim modelini kullanarak S&P 500 endeksi üzerinde bir inceleme yapmaktadır. Ticaret politikası belirsizliği, yatırımcı güvenini ve varlık fiyatlarını çeşitli iletim kanalları aracılığıyla etkileyerek finansal piyasaların oynaklığını artırabilir. Çalışmada, ticaret politikası belirsizliğinin borsa endeksi üzerindeki etkisinin piyasa rejimine bağlı olarak farklılık gösterdiği bulunmuştur. Bulgular, borsa yükseliş rejiminde (Rejim 0) ticaret politikası belirsizliğinin negatif ve anlamlı bir etkisinin olduğunu göstermektedir. Ticaret politikası belirsizliğinde meydana gelen azalma yatırımcıların risk algısını düşürerek daha fazla yatırım yapmalarına imkan tanır. Regime 1’de ise ticaret politikası belirsizliğinde meydana gelen artışların borsadan ciddi çıkışlar yaşanmasa da yeni hisse senedi yatırımlarını engellediğini göstermektedir. Çalışmanın bulguları, ticaret politikalarındaki belirsizliği azaltmaya yönelik önlemlerin finansal piyasalar için kritik bir faktör olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu doğrultuda, şeffaf ticaret politikaları, risk yönetimi stratejileri ve yatırımcıların portföy çeşitlendirme mekanizmaları gibi politika önerileri sunulmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ticaret Politikası Belirsizliği , S&P 500 , Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli

ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF TRADE POLICY UNCERTAINTY ON THE STOCK MARKET: EVIDENCE FROM THE MARKOV REGIME SWITCHING MODEL

Öz

This study examines the S&P 500 index using the Markov Regime Switching model to analyze the effects of trade policy uncertainty on financial markets. Trade policy uncertainty can increase the volatility of financial markets by affecting investor confidence and asset prices through various transmission channels. The study found that the effect of trade policy uncertainty on the stock market index varies depending on the market regime. The findings show that trade policy uncertainty has a negative and significant impact in the stock market uptrend regime (Regime 0). Decreased trade policy uncertainty allows investors to invest more by reducing risk perception. In Regime 1, it is shown that the increases in trade policy uncertainty prevent new stock investments even if there are no serious exits from the stock market. The study's findings reveal that measures to reduce uncertainty in trade policies are critical for financial markets. Policy recommendations such as transparent trade policies, risk management strategies, and investors' portfolio diversification mechanisms are presented in this direction.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Trade policy uncertainty , S&P500 , Markov Regime Switching Model

Teşekkür

İlginize teşekkür ederim.

Kaynakça

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