Makine Öğrenimi Tabanlı Kısa Vadeli Fotovoltaik Çıkış Gücü Tahminlemesi

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 2, 57 - 69, 19.07.2023

Berrin Eryılmaz , Heybet Kılıç , Fatih Koçyiğit

Öz

Fosil yakıt kaynaklarının sınırlı olması ve çevreye zararlı etkilerinin olması nedeniyle fotovoltaik (PV) sistemlerinin kurulumuna olan ihtiyaç giderek artmaktadır. PV sistemlerinin hava koşularına bağımlılığı PV güç çıkışlarında kararsızlığa, gerilim, frekans dalgalanmaları ve kesintilere neden olmaktadır. Bu durum ise PV enerjisinin şebekelere entegrasyonunu zorlaştırmaktadır. Bu yüzden PV güç çıkışını önceden kısa süreli tahmin etmek karşılaşılan zorlukların üstesinden gelmek için çok önemlidir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, literatürde makine öğrenimi modellerinde yaygın olan aşırı öğrenme ve yavaş öğrenme dezavantajlarının üstesinden gelerek daha hızlı öğrenen ve yüksek doğrulukta performans gösteren Gürbüz Düzenlenmiş Rastgele Vektör Fonksiyon Bağlantı (GD-RVFL) ağı modelini kısa vadeli PV çıkış gücünü tahmin etmede kullanmak ve bu kapsamda önerilen modeli 10 farklı makine öğrenimi yöntemi olan Bayesian Ridge Regressor (BRR), Linear Regressor (LR), Gaussian Process Regressor (GPR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), Yapay Sinir Ağı (YSA), Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Lasso Regressor (LAR) ve Ridge Regressor (RR) yöntemleri ile karşılaştırılarak modellerinin performansını değerlendirmektir. Yapılan bu karşılaştırma sonucunda GD-RVFL’ nin etkinliği diğer 10 makine öğrenimi modeline göre önemli ölçüde daha iyi performans gösterdiği görülmüştür

Anahtar Kelimeler

GD-RVFLN, KKA, Makine öğrenimi, PV çıkış gücü tahmini

Kaynakça

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