TÜREV PİYASALARI ENTEGRASYONUN BAĞLAYICISI MI, KIRILGANLIĞIN TAŞIYICISI MI?

Öz

Türev piyasaları, son otuz yılda küresel finans sisteminin çevresel bir unsuru olmaktan çıkarak sistemin temel bileşenlerinden biri hâline gelmiştir. Bu çalışma, söz konusu dönüşümü betimlemekten öte kuramsal bir öneri geliştirmektedir. Çalışmanın temel savı, tezgâh üstü (OTC) türev piyasalarının küresel finansal bütünleşmenin sonucu olmadığı, bu bütünleşmeyi üreten ve sürekliliğini sağlayan temel mekanizmalardan biri olduğudur. Bu çerçevede finansal entegrasyon, sermaye hareketlerinin doğal bir sonucu olarak değil, türev sözleşmeleri etrafında oluşan yoğun finansal ilişkiler aracılığıyla sürekli yeniden inşa edilen dinamik bir süreç olarak ele alınmaktadır. Çalışma bu yaklaşımı üç aşamalı bir analiz çerçevesi üzerinden temellendirmektedir. İlk aşamada riskin finansal sistem içinde yeniden tanımlanması ve farklı finansal araçlara aktarılması incelenmekte, ikinci aşamada türev piyasalarda oluşan ağ yapıları analiz edilmekte, son aşamada ise bu yapının küresel finansal entegrasyonu nasıl derinleştirdiği tartışılmaktadır. Türkiye'nin 2019-2020 döneminde uyguladığı BDDK swap sınırlamaları, Brezilya'nın faiz swap piyasası ve Singapur'un bölgesel türev merkezi politikası birlikte değerlendirildiğinde, finansal entegrasyonun simetrik bir süreçten çok stratejik ve asimetrik bir yapı sergilediği görülmektedir. Zema'nın (2023) EMIR verileri üzerinden ortaya koyduğu “ultra-small world” ağ yapısı ile Gorton'ın (2010) görünür olmayan risk birikimine ilişkin değerlendirmeleri, çalışmanın kuramsal çerçevesini ampirik bulgularla desteklemektedir. Sonuç olarak OTC piyasalarının oluşturduğu yoğun bağlantısallık finansal bütünleşmeyi derinleştirirken, sistemik şokların küresel finans sistemi içerisinde daha hızlı yayılmasına da zemin hazırlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Türev Piyasaları
• Finansal Entegrasyon
• Ağ Teorisi
• Sistemik Risk

DERIVATIVE MARKETS A BINDER OF INTEGRATION OR A CARRIER OF FRAGILITY?

Öz

Abstract: Over the past three decades, derivative markets have evolved from a peripheral component of the global financial order into one of its foundational pillars. Rather than adopting a descriptive approach, this study advances a direct theoretical argument. Accordingly, Over-the-Counter (OTC) derivative markets should be understood not as auxiliary instruments external to global financial integration, but as core mechanisms that generate and continuously sustain it. Financial integration, in turn, should not be conceived as a spontaneous outcome of capital mobility; rather, it is a dynamic process that is continuously reconstructed through dense networks formed around derivative contracts.The study develops this argument through a three-layer analytical framework. The first level examines the financial redefinition of risk and its translation into different instruments; the second level focuses on the dense network relations emerging in derivative markets; and the final level discusses how these structures deepen global financial integration. The cases of Türkiye’s 2019-2020 BRSA swap restrictions, Brazil’s interest rate swap market, and Singapore’s strategy of positioning itself as a regional derivatives hub collectively demonstrate that financial integration is asymmetric and strategically shaped rather than uniform. Zema’s (2023) findings based on EMIR data, which identify an “ultra-small world” network structure, together with Gorton’s (2010) analysis of invisible risk accumulation, provide empirical support for this framework. The dense interconnectedness produced by OTC markets deepens financial integration while simultaneously accelerating the global transmission of systemic shocks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Derivatives Markets
• Financial Integration
• Network Theory
• Systemic Risk

Kaynakça

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