The Relationship between Military Expenditure, Economic Growth, and Environmental Pollution: Evidence from Causality Test with Structural Breaks for Turkey

Öz

In this study, the relationship between military expenditure, economic growth, and environmental pollution were examined for Turkey for the period 1961-2016. Stationary degrees of the variables in the study were investigated using the Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, which allowed smooth structural breaks. The results show that all the variables are stationary at the first differences while they have a unit root at the levels. In the study, causality between variables was investigated using the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test, which allows smooth structural breaks and traditional Toda-Yamamoto causality test. According to the causality test results, there was a causality between economic growth and military spending. The direction of causality detected is from economic growth to military spending. On the other hand, there was no causal relationships between other variables for both tests. The determination of the causality detected using the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test shows the importance of structural breaks in causal relationships. As a result of the study, it is seen that a sustainable economic growth is important in terms of being a source of military expenditures. These results are expected to be a guide for policy makers.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Military Expenditure
• Economic Growth
• Carbon Footprint
• Structural Breaks
• Causality

Askeri Harcamalar, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Çevre Kirliliği Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye İçin Yapısal Kırılmalı Nedensellik Testinden Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışmada askeri harcamalar, ekonomik büyüme ve çevre kirliliği arasındaki ilişki Türkiye için 1961-2016 dönemi verileri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Çalışmada değişkenlerin durağanlık dereceleri yumuşak yapısal kırılmalara izin veren Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fuller birim kök testi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Birim kök sonuçları değişkenlerin seviyelerinde birim köklü iken birinci farklarında farklı anlamlılık düzeylerinde durağan olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmada değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ise Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testinin yanında literatüre yeni kazandırılmış yapısal kırılmalara izin veren Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre yalnızca ekonomik büyüme ile askeri harcamalar arasında bir nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Tespit edilen nedenselliğin yönü ise ekonomik büyümeden askeri harcamalara doğrudur. Diğer değişkenler arasında ise bir nedensellik tespit edilememiştir. Tespit edilen nedensel ilişkinin yapısal kırılmalara izin veren Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi kullanılarak tespit edilmiş olması yapısal kırılmaların nedensel ilişkilerdeki önemini ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışmanın genel sonuçlarına göre sürdürülebilir bir ekonomik büyümenin askeri harcamalara kaynak olması bakımından önemli olduğu görülmektedir. Bu sonuçların politika yapıcılar için yol gösterici olması beklenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Askeri harcamalar
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Karbon Ayak İzi
• Yapısal Kırılmalar
• Nedensellik

Kaynakça

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