OLAYLAR VE YORUMLAR

Öz

Bu incelemede Mayıs – Ekim 2025 tarihleri döneminde Ermenistan’daki iç durum, dış ilişkiler, Azerbaycan ile barış antlaşması imzalanması süreci ve Türkiye-Ermenistan ilişkileri ve normalleşme süreci ele alınmaktadır. Ermenistan’da Haziran 2026’da yapılması öngörülen seçimlerin öncesinde iç politikada gerginlik artmış, muhalefetin Başbakan Nikol Paşinyan ve yönetimine yönelik suçlamaları ve karşıtlığı şiddetlenmiştir. Muhalefetin öncülüğünü Diasporanın (özellikle de Taşnak partisinin ABD merkezli lobi örgütü ANCA’nın) ve Rusya’nın desteğini alan Apostolik Kilise üstlenmiş, Paşinyan’ın Kilisenin üst düzey hiyerarşisini hedef alması sonucu Katolikos Karekin II öncülüğünde din, siyasette önemli bir unsur olarak ön plana çıkmıştır. Azerbaycan ile barış anlaşması sürecinde hızlı ve olumlu gelişmeler yaşanmıştır. Tarafların bir aracı olmadan Abu Dabi’de ilk kez üst düzey ikili ve heyetler arası doğrudan görüşmelerinin ardından, 8 Ağustos’ta Vaşington’da ABD Başkanının katılımıyla yaptıkları görüşme sonrası iddialı bir şekilde barış penceresinin açıldığı ilan edilmiştir. Anlaşmanın önündeki iki engelden biri olan Zengezur koridoru “TRIPP” adı ile giderilmiş, Ermenistan’da anayasa değişikliği konusunda ise Paşinyan seçimlerden sonra bu konuda adım atacağı vadinde bulunmuştur. Dış ilişkilerde benimsenen “dengeli ve dengeleyici” ve “çok vektörlü” dış politika anlayışı ABD’den Çin’e, AB’den, ŞİÖ’ye Rusya’dan İran’a, Hindistan’a çok geniş bir yelpazeye yayılmış, adeta dış bağlantıların açık artırmaya çıkarıldığı görüntüsünü vermiştir. Türkiye-Ermenistan ilişkilerinde de dikkat çekici gelişmeler, ileri adımlar kaydedilmiştir. Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’ın daveti üzerine Paşinyan’ın Türkiye’ye yaptığı resmi ziyaret ile bir ilk yaşanmıştır. Normalleşme süreci özel temsilcileri de ilk kez ikili görüşmelerini aracısız ve kendi başkentlerinden birinde, Erivan’da yapmış, Türk heyeti kapalı olan kara sınırından geçiş yapmıştır. Tarafların ilişkilerin tam normalleşmeyi sağlamaya hazır oldukları kaydedilmiş, zamanlamanın Ermenistan-Azerbaycan barış anlaşmasının imzalanması ile bağlantılı olduğu anlaşılmıştır

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Paşinyan
• Mirzoyan
• II. Karekin
• Taşnaksutyun (EDF)
• Diaspora
• Erdoğan
• Azerbaycan

FACTS COMMENT

Öz

This article covers the period of May-October 2025 of the internal situation in Armenia, the foreign dynamics shaping its international relations, the process of initialing the peace agreement with Azerbaijan and the bilateral relations of Türkiye and Armenia in the light of the process of normalisation of their relations. Ahead of the elections to be held in June 2026, internal tensions have surged in Armenia, and the accusations and adversity of the opposition towards Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan have intensified. The opposition has been led mainly by the Apostolic Church with the backing of Russia and the Diaspora, with the most prominent support coming from the Dashnak party’s US-based lobby organization ANCA. As Pashinyan personally targeted the head of the Church and its hierarchy, Catholicos Karekin II has in return openly taken political initiative and introduced religion as a major force in politics. Rapid and positive developments have taken place in the peace agreement negotiations process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Following the high level talks in Abu Dhabi between the parties (one on one and with delegations), their first ever direct talks without an intermediary, the two sides met in Washington D.C. on 8 August with the participation of the US President, where it was pompously declared that the parties had agreed on the peace agenda. One of the two impediments to concluding the peace agreement, the Zangezur corridor issue, was overcome with the proposed formation of “TRIPP”. As regards the change of Armenia’s constitution, Pashinyan has promised to look into the matter after the elections. In foreign relations, the adopted “balanced and balancing” as well as “multivector” foreign policy lines have provided the justification to expand ties in an extremely broad spectrum from the US to China, EU to SCO, to India, Russia, and Iran, conjuring the perception that foreign relations are being put on auction. Noteworthy, substantial developments have taken place in Türkiye-Armenia relations as well. Upon the invitation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Pashinyan paid an official visit to Türkiye, the first of its kind. Special representatives of the normalization process met for the first time, in their sixth meeting, without an intermediary and in a capital city of their own, resulting in the Turkish delegation crossing the closed border to reach Yerevan. The two sides acknowledged that they are ready to fully implement the normalization of their relations. It is understood that the timing is geared with the signing of the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Pashinyan
• Mirzoyan
• Karekin II
• Dashnaktsutyun (ARF)
• Diaspora
• Erdogan

Kaynakça

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