OLAYLAR VE YORUMLAR

Öz

Bu incelemede Kasım 2025-Nisan 2026 tarihleri döneminde Ermenistan’daki iç durum, dış ilişkiler, Azerbaycan ile barış antlaşması imzalanması süreci ve Türkiye-Ermenistan ilişkileri ve normalleşme süreci ele alınmaktadır. Dönemin gelişmeleri esas itibarıyla 7 Haziran’da yapılacağı açıklanan parlamento seçimlerine odaklanmıştır. ABD ve AB’nin geniş boyutlu ve görünür desteği ile Paşinyan yönetimi tarihi emelleri, iddiaları ve söylemleri bir kenara koyarak komşularla iyi ilişkiler öngören, Batı’ya açılan, barış yanlısı bir platform oluşturmuştur. Eski üç cumhurbaşkanının ön çektiği parlamentoda temsil edilen Rusya yanlısı muhalefet etkisiz ve yetersiz kalmış, muhalefet görevini geleneksel emelleri, değerleri ve söylemleri savunan Apostolik Kilise ve onun başı Katolikos üstlenmiştir. Kilisenin gölgesinde yeni bir parti oluşturan Rus ve Ermeni uyruklu oligark milyarder Karapetyan önde gelen muhalefet partisi olarak ortaya çıkmıştır. Böylece, bir yandan Rusya-Batı çekişmesi diğer yandan din dayanışması kapsamında Batının önde gelen dini kurumları ile Rus Kilisesinin Apostolik Kiliseye ortak desteği Ermenistan iç siyaseti bakımından ilginç bir görüntü yaratmıştır. Azerbaycan ile barış süreci 8 Ağustos 2025’te Vaşington’da üçlü zirvede varılan mutabakatın ışığında, olumlu ve yapıcı adımlarla devam etmiş; antlaşmanın imzalanmasının önündeki tek engeli oluşturan anayasada gerekli değişikliğin yapılması keyfiyeti 7 Haziran seçimi ertesine bırakıldığı cihetle, dönem ticari, ekonomik iş birliği, ulaşım bağlantısallığının sağlanması, insandan insana ve toplumlar arası ilişkilerin geliştirilmesi gibi antlaşmanın altyapısını ve ruhunu oluşturan girişimlere odaklanmıştır. Diğer taraftan Paşinyan yönetimi karşıtı çevreler, bunlarla aynı çizgide buluşan Apostolik Kilise ve yandaşı uluslararası din kurumları ve siyasi bağnazlık içindeki ideolojik siyasi oluşumlar aynı zamanda barış sürecini de hedef alabilmişlerdir. Rusya’ya hala çok yönlü bağlı bulunan Ermenistan, Rusya’nın uluslararası alanda güç kaybettiği jeo-politik ortamda, Rusya’nın potansiyel gazabını çekmeden Batı ile ilişkilerini kurumsallaştırma adımlarını atma çabalarını ileri bir aşamaya taşımış, bunu çok vektörlü, dengeli ve dengeleyici dış politika söylemi ve Rusya’ya yakın ülkelerle de geliştirmeye çalıştığı ilişkiler ile nötralize etmeye çalışmıştır. Döneme ABD ile yerleştirdiği bölgesel iş birliği ve AB ile stratejik ortaklık ve üyelik girişimi damgasını vurmuştur. Türkiye ile ilişkiler normalleşme süreci kapsamında yapıcı ve olumlu seyrini sürdürmüştür. Türkiye bakımından olmazsa olmaz önceliğin bölgede kalıcı barışın ve istikrarın tesis edilmesi bunun da her şeyden önce Ermenistan-Azerbaycan barış antlaşmasının imzalanmasından geçmesi, Ermenistan’ın barış antlaşmasının önündeki bu engeli seçim sonuna bırakması Ermenistan’ın Türkiye’den beklentilerini biraz törpülemiştir. Türkiye ile ilişkilerin tam normalleşmesi ve sınırların açılmasının Azerbaycan ile anlaşmayı daha kolaylaştıracağı gibi yanıltıcı görüşler itibar görmemiştir. Ancak altyapı hazırlıkları tamamlanmış ve Ermenistan-Azerbaycan normalleşmesinin hemen akabinde Türkiye’nin bütünüyle hazır olduğu anlaşılmıştır. Türkiye Ermenistan’daki gelişmeleri ve Paşinyan yönetiminin ezber bozan, cesur adımlarını dikkatle izlemiş ve takdirle karşılamış, çağdaş ve uzak görüşlü yaklaşımına tam desteğini ifade etmiştir

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Paşinyan
• Mirzoyan
• Karekin II
• Putin
• Lavrov
• Erdoğan
• Fidan
• AB
• ABD

Kaynakça

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90. “Migration Trends Reverse: More Armenians Returning than Leaving in 2025.” ArmenPress. 13 Şubat 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1242080.
91. Minoyan, Hoory. “Peace on Baku’s Terms: Aliyev Says Treaty Possible ‘Next Day’ if Armenia Amends Constitution.” Armenian Weekly. 19 Şubat 2026. https://armenianweekly.com/2026/02/19/peace-on-bakus-terms-aliyev-says-treaty-possible-next-day-if-armenia-amends-constitution/.
92. “Mirzoyan Dismisses Opposition Criticism of EU, Turkish Statements as "a Matter of Taste".” ArmenPress. 21 Ocak 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1240203.
93. “Mirzoyan: Armenia Highly Values Saudi Arabia’s Position in Support of Established Peace between Armenia. Azerbaijan.” News.am. 7 Kasım 2025. https://news.am/en/news/914084.
94. “Moscow is Ready to Discuss All of Armenia’s Concerns Regarding Bilateral Relations: Zakharova.” 1 Lurer. 11 Kasım 2026. https://www.1lurer.am/en/2025/11/11/Moscow-is-ready-to-discuss-all-of-Armenia%E2%80%99s-concerns-regarding-bilateral-relations-Zakharova/1413602.
95. “NATO Deputy Secretary General Hails Growing Partnership with Armenia.” North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). 19 Aralık 2025. https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/articles/news/2025/12/19/nato-deputy-secretary-general-hails-growing-partnership-with-armenia.
96. “NATO’s Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia Pays First Visit to Armenia.” North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). 22 Nisan 2026. https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/articles/news/2026/04/22/natos-special-representative-for-the-caucasus-and-central-asia-pays-first-visit-to-armenia.
97. “Nikol Pashinyan and Friedrich Merz Sign Joint Declaration on the Strategic Agenda Between the Armenia and Germany.” The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. 9 Aralık 2025. https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2025/12/09/Nikol-Pashinyan-Signing-of-the-Declaration/.
98. “Nikol Pashinyan and Vladimir Putin Meet.” The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. 1 Nisan 2026. https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2026/04/01/Nikol-Pashinyan-Vladimir-Putin/.
99. “No Russian or Turkish Participation Discussed for TRIPP Project, Says Vice Speaker.” ArmenPress. 19 Ocak 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1239962.
100. “No: 75, 24 Nisan 2026, Bazı Ülkelerin Yetkililerince 1915 Olaylarına İlişkin Yapılan Beyanlar Hk..” Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Dışişleri Bakanlığı. 24 Nisan 2026. https://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-75_-bazi-ulkelerin-yetkililerince-1915-olaylarina-iliskin-yapilan-beyanlar-hk.tr.mfa.
101. “No: 78, 28 Nisan 2026, Kars-Gümrü Demiryolunun Rehabilitasyonu ve Faaliyete Geçirilmesi Amacıyla Oluşturulan Türkiye ile Ermenistan Arasındaki Ortak Çalışma Grubu’nun Toplantısı Hk..” Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Dışişleri Bakanlığı. 28 Nisan 2026. https://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-78_-kars-gumru-demiryolunun-rehabilitasyonu-ve-faaliyete-gecirilmesi-amaciyla-olusturulan-turkiye-ile-ermenistan-arasindaki-ortak-calisma-grubu-nun-toplantisi-hk.tr.mfa.
102. “Normalization with Türkiye Could Positively Impact Normalization with Azerbaijan: Armenian FM Responds to Fidan.” ArmenPress. 20 Kasım 2025, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1235489.
103. “Opening of the Gyumri–Kars Railway Could Become Important Part of the Europe–Central Asia Transport Chain - FM Mirzoyan.” ArmenPress. 14 Kasım 2025. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1235068.
104. Pala, Melike. “EU Welcomes Armenia-Türkiye Talks on Restoring Rail Connectivity.” Anadolu Agency. 29 Nisan 2026. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/eu-welcomes-armenia-turkiye-talks-on-restoring-rail-connectivity/3921951.
105. “Parliament Bans Armenian Apostolic Church from Alienating Religious Monuments without Government Consent.” News.am. 4 Mart 2026. https://news.am/en/news/934003.
106. “Pashinyan Blames Soviet KGB for Shaping Armenians’ View of Turks and Azerbaijanis.” OC Media. 3 Kasım 2026. https://oc-media.org/pashinyan-blames-soviet-kgb-for-shaping-armenians-view-of-turks-and-azerbaijanis/.
107. “Pashinyan Blames Soviet KGB for Shaping Armenians’ View of Turks and Azerbaijanis.”OC Media.3 Kasım 2025. https://oc-media.org/pashinyan-blames-soviet-kgb-for-shaping-armenians-view-of-turks-and-azerbaijanis/.
108. “Pashinyan Confirms his Official Invitation to Erdogan for European Community Summit in Yerevan.” Arka News Agency. 4 Kasım 2025. https://arka.am/en/news/politics/pashinyan-confirmed-his-official-invitation-to-erdogan-for-the-european-community-summit-in-yerevan/.
109. “Pashinyan Congratulates Iran’s New Supreme Leader.” Asbarez. 9 Mart 2026. https://asbarez.com/pashinyan-congratulates-irans-new-supreme-leader/.
110. “Pashinyan Declares: “Armenian Apostolic Church Has No Catholicos,” Again Accusing Karekin II of Illegitimacy.” Zartonk. 6 Kasım 2026. https://zartonkmedia.com/2025/11/06/pashinyan-declares-armenian-apostolic-church-has-no-catholicos-again-accusing-karekin-ii-of-illegitimacy/.
111. “Pashinyan Rejects “Historical Justice” Agenda.” ArmenPress. 26 Mart 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1245673.
112. “Pashinyan Returns from BoP Washington Meeting with "Greater Confidence in Peace".” ArmenPress. 20 Şubat 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1242648.
113. “Pashinyan Says He Ordered Genocide Museum Director to Submit Resignation.” CivilNet. 12 Mart 2026. https://civilnet.am/en/news/1007739.
114. “Pashinyan Warns of Possible New September War if Opposition Wins.” MassisPost. 19 Mart 2026. https://massispost.com/2026/03/pashinyan-warns-of-possible-new-september-war-if-opposition-wins/.
115. “Pashinyan: “There Is No ‘Zangezur Corridor,’ Has Never Been, and Will Not Appear in Any Armenia– Azerbaijan Document”.” Armenian Life. 12 Ekim 2025. https://armenianlife.com/2025/10/12/pashinyan-there-is-no-zangezur-corridor-has-never-been-and-will-not-appear-in-any-armenia-azerbaijan-document/.
116. “Pashinyan: Armenia’s Interests Come First, No Intent to Harm Russia Ties.” ArmenPress. 5 Mart 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1243892.
117. “Pashinyan: I Need A Catholicos Who will not Obey Foreign Special Service Lieutenant.”ArmenPress. 3 Aralık 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1236739.
118. “Pashinyan: New Armenian Constitution should not reference 'conflict-logic' Declaration of Independence.” ArmenPress. 12 Mart 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1244511.
119. “Pashinyan: New Constitution should not Reference Declaration of Independence.” ArmenPress. 21 April 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1248012.
120. “Paşinyan’dan Karabağ’daki Kilise İddialarına Temkinli Yaklaşım.” Ermeni Haber Ajansı. 23 Nisan 2026. https://ermenihaber.am/ztr/29414/.
121. “Patrik Maşalyan'dan Ermeni Soykırımı Mesajı.” ArmenPress. 24 Nisan 2026. https://armenpress.am/tr/article/1248373.
122. “Pope Leo XIV Calls Azerbaijan. Armenia Leaders “Sowers Of Hope”.” Caliber. 4 Şubat 2026. https://caliber.az/en/post/pope-leo-xiv-calls-azerbaijan-armenia-leaders-sowers-of-hope.
123. “President Aliyev Stresses Azerbaijanis’ Right to Return to Armenia.” News.az. 5 Aralık 2026. https://news.az/news/president-aliyev-stresses-azerbaijanis-right-to-return-to-armenia.
124. “Presidents of Armenia. Georgia Discuss TRIPP Project.” ArmenPress. 19 Kasım 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1235464.
125. “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Official Visit to the Republic of Kazakhstan.” The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. Erişim Tarihi: 5 Mayıs 2026. https://www.primeminister.am/en/foreign-visits/item/2025/11/20/Nikol-Pashinyan-visiting-Kazakhstan/.
126. “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Official Visit to the Republic of Poland.” Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. Erişim Tarihi: 5 Mayıs 2026. https://www.primeminister.am/en/foreign-visits/item/2026/02/25/Nikol-Pashinyan-visiting-Poland/.
127. “Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and the President of the Russian Federation Meet in St. Petersburg.” The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. 22 Aralık 2025. https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2025/12/22/Nikol-Pashinyan-met-with-Vladimir-Putin/.
128. “Prime Minister Pashinyan's Statement on Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day.” ArmenPress. 24 Nisan 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/video/1248352.
129. Rana, Javaria. “CDS General Anil Chauhan Heads Indian Defence Delegation to Armenia to Boost Security Cooperation.” The New Indian Express. 2 Şubat 2026. https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2026/Feb/02/cds-general-anil-chauhan-heads-indian-defence-delegation-to-armenia-to-boost-security-cooperation.
130. Rehimov, Ruslan. “Ermenistan Dışişleri Bakanı Mirzoyan'dan, Rus Mevkidaşı Lavrov'a "İç İşlerimize Karışmayın" Yanıtı.” Anadolu Ajansı. 30 Haziran 2025. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/ermenistan-disisleri-bakani-mirzoyandan-rus-mevkidasi-lavrova-ic-islerimize-karismayin-yaniti/3617730.
131. Rehimov, Ruslan. “Paşinyan. Azerbaycan'la Sağladıkları Barışın "En Güvenilir Güvenlik Garantisi" Olduğunu Söyledi.” Anadolu Ajansı. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/pasinyan-azerbaycanla-sagladiklari-barisin-en-guvenilir-guvenlik-garantisi-oldugunu-soyledi/3812970.
132. “Remarks by Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia Ararat Mirzoyan at the session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia. 28 Ocak 2026. https://www.mfa.am/en/speeches/2026/01/28/Mirzoyan_PACE/13751.
133. “Russia is in Constant Contact with its Armenian Partners Regarding Restoration of Railway Sections in Armenia: Zakharova.” 1Lurer. 30 Ocak 2026. https://www.1lurer.am/en/2026/01/30/Russia-is-in-constant-contact-with-its-Armenian-partners-regarding-restoration-of-railway-sections/1455786.
134. “Russia Retaliates Strongly Against the Prospect of a US-Built Nuclear Facility in Armenia.” Energy News. 14 Şubat 2026. https://energynews.oedigital.com/nuclear-power/2026/02/14/russia-retaliates-strongly-against-the-prospect-of-a-usbuilt-nuclear-facility-in-armenia.
135. “Russian FM Accuses EU of Election Meddling in Armenia.” Azatutyun Radiokayan. 19 Aralık 2025. https://www.azatutyun.am/a/33628015.html.
136. “Russian Foreign Ministry Warns That NATO’s Moves in South Caucasus Threaten Regional Stability.” Caucasus Watch. 27 Aralık 2026. https://caucasuswatch.de/en/news/russian-foreign-ministry-warns-that-natos-moves-in-south-caucasus-threaten-regional-stability.html.
137. Salmanli, Ulviyya. “Armenia Warns of Leaving CSTO and EAEU if Russia Raises Gas Prices.” News.az. 6 Nisan 2026. https://news.az/news/armenia-warns-of-leaving-csto-and-eaeu-if-russia-raises-gas-prices.
138. Sassounian, Harut. “Not One Armenian-American Should Vote for Vance in 2028 Presidential Election.” Armenian Weekly. 19 Şubat 2026. https://armenianweekly.com/2026/02/19/not-one-armenian-american-should-vote-for-vance-in-2028-presidential-election/.
139. “Secretary of the Security Council Meets Representatives of Civil Society of Armenia and Azerbaijan.” ArmenPress. 14 Şubat 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1242200.
140. “Seçimler 7 Haziran’da.” Ermenistan Kamu Radyosu. 9 Şubat 2026. https://tr.armradio.am/2026/02/09/secimler-7-haziranda/.
141. “Statement on the Suppression of the Armenian Apostolic Church: Historical Continuities of Identity Erasure within Victim Groups.” Lemkin Instutute. 28 December 2025. https://www.lemkininstitute.com/statements-new-page/statement-on-the-suppression-of-the-armenian-apostolic-church%3A-historical-continuities-of-identity-erasure-within-victim-groups.
142. “Strong Armenia Party Nominates Samvel Karapetyan ss PM Candidate Despite Constitutional Barrier.” ArmenPress. 12 Şubat 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1241999.
143. Tarhan, Muhammet. “Turkish Foreign Minister Discusses Regional Developments with Armenian Counterpart.” Anadolu Agency. 6 Mart 2026. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/turkish-foreign-minister-discusses-regional-developments-with-armenian-counterpart/3853048.
144. Teslova, Elena. “Russia Warns Armenia About Risks of Moving Towards West at Expense of Traditional Partners.” Anadolu Agency. 5 Şubat 2026. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/russia-warns-armenia-about-risks-of-moving-towards-west-at-expense-of-traditional-partners/3821864.
145. “The Assembly of Bishops of the Catholicosate of All Armenians of the Armenian Apostolic Holy Church Issued a Statement.” Armenian Apostolic Holy Church Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin. 20 Şubat 2026. https://www.armenianchurch.org/en/news/the-assembly-of-bishops-of-the-catholicosate-of-all-armenians-of-the-armenian-apostolic-holy-church/12141.
146. “The Opening of the Embassy of Armenia in Bern.” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia. 13 Mart 2026. https://www.mfa.am/en/press-releases/2026/03/13/Mirzoyan_BernEmbassy/13829.
147. “The Prime Minister Participates in the Inaugural Session of the Peace Council.” The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. 19 Şubat 2026. https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2026/02/19/Nikol-Pashinyan-participate-board-peace/.
148. “There is Real Peace in Our Region, Pashinyan.” First Channel News. 25 Şubat 2026. https://www.1lurer.am/en/2026/02/25/There-is-real-peace-in-our-region-Pashinyan/1469720. “THY Makes Its First Flight to Yerevan.” Agos. 13 Mart 2026. https://www.agos.com.tr/tr/haber/thy-makes-its-first-flight-to-yerevan-39798.
149. “Tucker Carlson Amplifies Claims of Pashinyan’s ‘war on Christianity’.” OC Media. 10 Kasım 2026. https://oc-media.org/tucker-carlson-amplifies-claims-of-pashinyans-war-on-christianity/.
150. “Turkish Foreign Minister Reiterates Türkiye’s Determination to Normalize Relations with Armenia.” Anadolu Agency. 19 Kasım 2026. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/turkish-foreign-minister-reiterates-turkiye-s-determination-to-normalize-relations-with-armenia/3747543.
151. “Turkish Governor Inspects Border Checkpoint with Armenia, Says Reopening Will Boost Regional Economy.” ArmenPress. 9 Şubat 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1241606.
152. “Türkiye to Continue Contributing to Regional Peace, Says FM Hakan Fidan.” ArmenPress. 10 Aralık 2025. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1237208.
153. “Türkiye, Armenia Hold Second Round of Talks on Reopening Kars–Gyumri Railway.” Türkiye Today. 29 Kasım 2025. https://www.turkiyetoday.com/nation/turkiye-armenia-hold-second-round-of-talks-on-reopening-karsgyumri-railway-3210549.
154. “US, Armenia Sign Agreement on Nuclear Energy.” World Nuclear News. 10 Şubat 2026. https://world-nuclear-news.org/articles/us-armenia-sign-agreement-on-nuclear-energy.
155. “Vance Promotes Peace Corridor in Historic First Visit by US Vice President to Armenia.” EuroNews. 10 Şubat 2026. https://www.euronews.com/2026/02/10/vance-promotes-peace-corridor-in-historic-first-visit-by-us-vice-president-to-armenia.
156. “Vice-President Vance’s Deleted Armenian Genocide Post Sends Shockwaves across Armenian American Community.” Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA). 10 Şubat 2026. https://anca.org/press-release/vice-president-vances-deleted-armenian-genocide-post-sends-shockwaves-across-armenian-american-community/.
157. “We Regretfully Observe Situation with Armenian Church – Lavrov.” Alpha News. 20 Ocak 2026. https://alphanews.am/en/we-regretfully-observe-situation-with-armenian-church-lavrov/.
158. “Western Diocese’s Archbishop Derderian Reaffirms Support For Pashinyan’s “Church Reform.” Alleges Misconduct Against Catholicos.” Zartonk. 16 Ocak 2026. https://zartonkmedia.com/2026/01/16/western-dioceses-archbishop-derderian-reaffirms-support-for-pashinyans-church-reform-alleges-misconduct-against-catholicos/.
159. Yıldızalp Yormaz, Merve. “Steps Taken by Azerbaijan and Armenia Toward Establishing Lasting Peace are 'Extremely Valuable,' Says Turkish President.” Anadolu Agency. 4 Şubat 2026. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/steps-taken-by-azerbaijan-and-armenia-toward-establishing-lasting-peace-are-extremely-valuable-says-turkish-president/3820667.