OLAYLAR VE YORUMLAR

Öz

Bu incelemede Mayıs-Ekim 2026 döneminde Ermenistan’daki iç durum, dış ilişkiler, Azerbaycan ile barış anlaşması imzalanması süreci ve Türkiye-Ermenistan ilişkileri ve normalleşme süreci ele alınmaktadır. Dönemin en önemli gelişmesi, Ermenistan’ın gelecekteki yönünü belirleyecek olan 7 Haziran seçimlerinin Paşinyan’ın zaferiyle sonuçlanması olmuştur. Paşinyan bu seçimleri, karşısında duran ve muhalefeti destekleyen, Ermenistan üzerinde güçlü etkinliğe sahip Rusya’ya, Katolikos’un öncülüğünde halk üzerinde tarihi geçmişe sahip moral gücü bulunan kiliseye ve diasporanın ses getiren radikalmilitan kesimine rağmen, başta Avrupa Birliği (AB) ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD) olmak üzere Batı’nın açık desteğiyle kazanmıştır. Ancak seçim sonuçlarına rağmen bu yıkıcı üçlünün muhalefeti sona ermemiş, aksine tırmanmıştır. Özellikle yaratılan ekonomik baskıyı Batı desteği karşılayamamıştır. Bu durum yönetimi giderek tavizler vermeye zorlamıştır. Rusya’nın yörüngesinden çıkarak AB ve ABD’ye yönelmek isteyen Paşinyan yönetimi, bu yöneliş ile Rusya ile koparılması zor bağları arasında ciddi bir ikilem arasında kalmıştır. Zamana yayarak ve kademeli olarak Rusya’dan uzaklaşmak taktiği Rusya’nın kesin direnci ile karşılaşmış, Batı’nın desteği Rusya’nın baskısını gidermeye yetmemiştir. Çok vektörlü, dengeli ve dengeleyici dış politika uygulaması da Rusya’yı ikna etmemiş, Rusya elindeki imkânları kullanarak bu yönelişe karşı çıkmıştır. Yönetim her şeye rağmen dış politika hedeflerinden taviz vermemiş, uyguladığı dış politikanın egemenliğinin gereği ve göstergesi olduğunu vurgulamıştır. Paşinyan’ın seçim zaferi barış anlaşmasının önündeki tek engel olan anayasa değişikliğine de olanak sağlayacağı ve nihai normalleşmenin artık yakın olduğu ümidini yaratmış, Azerbaycan ile karşılıklı temaslar artmış, ulaşım, ticaret alanlarında pratik adımlar atılmıştır. Ancak bu temel beklentiyi gerçekleştirecek adımların bir türlü atılamaması, karşılıklı polemik ve suçlamalara yol açmıştır. Son olarak Paşinyan’ın sürecin 2031 yılına kadar uzayabileceğine işaret etmesi, Ermenistan’ın Batı’dan aldığı desteğe güvenerek Türkiye ile sınırın açılmasına öncelik vermesi, belirsiz hatta giderek karamsarlaşan bir ortam yaratmıştır. Türkiye ile ilişkiler dönem içinde iyi komşuluk ilkeleri çerçevesinde, hızlı ve kayda değer bir gelişme göstermiştir. Karşılıklı temaslar çeşitli alanlarda ve düzeyde artmıştır. Türkiye’nin tam normalleşme konusunda benimsediği; öncelikle bölgede barış ve istikrarın sağlanması, bunun da yolunun Azerbaycan ile Ermenistan arasında barış antlaşmasının bir an önce imzalanmasından geçtiği ilkesel tutumunda bir değişiklik olmamıştır. Türkiye her vesileyle tam normalleşmenin tüm hazırlıklarını tamamladığını, komşusu Ermenistan ile derhal ilişkilerin tam normalleşmesine hazır olduğunu ancak bunun Ermenistan’ın bölge barış ve istikrarı için atmasını beklediği adımlara bağlı olduğunu vurgulamaya devam etmiştir

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Paşinyan
• Mirzoyan
• Putin
• Erdoğan
• AB
• ABD
• Azerbaycan
• Ermenistan.

Kaynakça

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94. Oktay, Mücahit. “Trump, Ermenistan Başbakanı Paşinyan'a hazirandaki seçimlerde desteğini açıkladı.” Anadolu Ajansı. 28 Mayıs 2026. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/trump-ermenistan-basbakani-pasinyana-hazirandaki-secimlerde-destegini-acikladi/3950072.
95. “Pashinyan Admitted to Making $2 Billion Financial Demands on Russia in the Context of the South Caucasus Railway Issue.” Arka News Agency. 30 Temmuz 2026. https://arka.am/en/news/economy/pashinyan-admitted-to-making-2-billion-financial-demands-on-russia-in-the-context-of-the-south-cauca/.
96. “Pashinyan Aims to Achieve Signing of Initialed Peace Agreement with Azerbaijan by 2031.” ArmenPress. 15 Ekim 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1262853.
97. “Pashinyan Comments on Meeting with Mishustin in Yekaterinburg.” ArmenPress. 9 Temmuz 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1255142.
98. “Pashinyan Disagrees with Putin’s ‘Divorce’ Formulation.” Mediamax. 11 Mayıs 2026. https://mediamax.am/en/news/foreignpolicy/60805/.
99. “Pashinyan Explains Expanded Mandates of Ministries as Cabinet Approves Renaming.” ArmenPress. 20 Ağustos 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1258455.
100. “Pashinyan Highlights TRIPP and Removal of Trade Barriers at EAEU Meeting.” ArmenPress. 2 Ekim 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1261891.
101. Pashinyan, Nikol. “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Speech at the Discussion of the Government’s 2026–2031 Program at the National Assembly.” Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. 24 Ağustos 2026. https://www.primeminister.am/en/statements-and-messages/item/2026/08/24/Nikol-Pashinyan-Speech/.
102. “Pashinyan Outlines Future of Artsakh Representation Building.” PAN.am. 17 Eylül 2026. https://www.pan.am/en/625228.
103. “Pashinyan Outlines New Model of Armenia-Diaspora Relations.” ArmenPress. 11 Eylül 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1260222.
104. “Pashinyan Outlines Vision for Resolving Enclave-Exclave Issue Between Armenia and Azerbaijan.” ArmenPress. 14 Ekim 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1262730.
105. “Pashinyan Proposed that Russia Sell the Concession for Armenia's Railways to A Third Country.” Arka News Agency. 24 Ağustos 2026. https://arka.am/en/news/business/pashinyan-proposed-that-russia-sell-the-concession-for-armenia-s-railways-to-a-third-country/.
106. “Pashinyan Pushes Back Against Medvedev’s ‘New Ukraine’ Remarks.” ArmenPress. 8 Ekim 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1262283.
107. “Pashinyan Reiterates Armenia Is Not an Ally of Russia on Ukraine Issue.” ArmenPress. 7 Mayıs 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1249569.
108. “Pashinyan Says Armenia–Russia Relations Are ‘Open and Sincere’.” ArmenPress. 1 Haziran 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1251620.
109. “Pashinyan Vows to Halt Attempts to Revive "Karabakh Movement", Slams Opposition Rhetoric.” ArmenPress. 25 Haziran 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1253985.
110. “Pashinyan Warns of Security Challenges from ‘Western Azerbaijan’ Discourse, Parallel Narratives in Armenia.” ArmenPress. 17 Eylül 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1260655.
111. “Pashinyan: 2026-2031 Government Program Based on ‘Real Armenia,’ ‘Fourth Republic’ Vision.” ArmenPress. 20 Ağustos 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1258448/amp.
112. “Pashinyan: Armenia Will Not Object If Russia Decides to Pull Out Military Base.” ArmenPress. 3 Eylül 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1259565.
113. “PM Pashinyan Compares Political Opponents to Azerbaijani Soldier Who Shot Armenian Woman.” News.am. 8 Ekim 2026. https://news.am/en/news/1066622.
114. “PM Pashinyan Hosts UN Secretary-General António Guterres at the Government.” The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. 15 Ekim 2026. https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2026/10/15/Nikol-Pashinyan-Antonio-Guterres.
115. “President Erdoğan Meets with Prime Minister Pashinyan of Armenia.” Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Cumhurbaşkanlığı İletişim Başkanlığı. 23 Eylül 2026. https://www.iletisim.gov.tr/English/haberler/detay/president-erdogan-meets-with-prime-minister-pashinyan-of-armenia.
116. “President Khachaturyan Says Armenia Ready at Any Time for Türkiye to Open Border.” ArmenPress. 5 Eylül 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1259759.
117. “President of Türkiye Congratulates Nikol Pashinyan on Election Victory.” The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. 11 Haziran 2026. https://www.primeminister.am/en/congratulatory/item/2026/06/11/Nikol-Pashinyan-Congratulations-3.
118. “President Vahagn Khachaturyan to Pay Official Visit to the Czech Republic.” The President of the Republic of Armenia. 1 Eylül 2026. https://www.president.am/en/press-release/item/2026/09/01/President-Vahagn-Khachaturyan-.
119. “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Speech at the Discussion of the Government's 2026-2031 Program at the National Assembly.” The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. 24 Ağustos 2026. https://www.primeminister.am/en/statements-and-messages/item/2026/08/24/Nikol-Pashinyan-Speech/.
120. “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Speech at the Discussion of the Government's 2026-2031 Program at the National Assembly.” The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. 24 Ağustos 2026. https://www.primeminister.am/en/statements-and-messages/item/2026/08/24/Nikol-Pashinyan-Speech/.
121. “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Working Visit to Turkmenistan.” The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. 8-9 Ekim 2026. https://www.primeminister.am/en/foreign-visits/item/2026/10/08/Nikol-Pashinyan-visiting-Turkmenistan.
122. “Putin: Russia Ready to Pull Armenia Base “Even Tomorrow.” ArmenPress. 2 Eylül 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1259442.
123. “Read-out by President von der Leyen following Her Phone Call with Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan.” European Commision. 4 Haziran 2026. https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/read-out-president-von-der-leyen-following-her-phone-call-prime-minister-armenia-nikol-pashinyan-2026-06-04_en.
124. Rehimov, Ruslan. “Ermenistan Başbakanı Paşinyan, Azerbaycan'la Barış Sürecini Değerlendirdi.” Anadolu Ajansı. 9 Ekim 2026. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/ermenistan-basbakani-pasinyan-azerbaycanla-baris-surecini-degerlendirdi/4083360.
125. “Ruben Rubinyan: Incomplete Peace with Azerbaijan is a Threat.” Modern. 5 Ağustos 2026. https://modern.az/en/aktual/724924/ruben-rubinyan-incomplete-peace-with-azerbaijan-is-a-threat/.
126. “Ruben Vardanyan Slams Pashinian, Warns Armenians.” Azatutyun Radiokayan. 25 Mayıs 2026. https://www.azatutyun.am/amp/33764613.html.
127. “Russia Again Refuses To Give Up Management Of Armenian Railway.” Azatutyun Radiokayan. 26 Ağustos 2026. https://www.azatutyun.am/a/33840511.html.
128. “Russia Awaits Agreement Between Yerevan and Baku on the Rotation of Future 3+3 Format Meetings, Zakharova Says.” ArmenPress. 15 Temmuz 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1255656.
129. “Russia MFA Official: Armenia Will Have to Give Up Preferential Terms for Russian Natural Gas Also in Case of Reviewing Relations With Moscow.” News.am. 7 Ekim 2026. https://news.am/en/news/1066206.
130. “Russia MFA: Armenia’s Citizens Must Make a Choice in Favor of Their Country.” News.am. 3 Haziran 2026. https://news.am/en/news/1040596.
131. “Russia Says Armenia Cannot ‘Dance At Two Weddings’.” Eurasia Review. 21 Mayıs 2026. https://www.eurasiareview.com/21052026-russia-says-armenia-cannot-dance-at-two-weddings/.
132. “Russia Security Council Deputy Chair Warns Armenia About Risk of Becoming "New Ukraine.” News.am. 4 Ekim 2026. https://news.am/en/news/1065648.
133. “Russia Slams New EU Mission to Armenia.” Azatutyun Radiokayan. 24 Nisan 2026. https://www.azatutyun.am/a/33741757.html.
134. “Russian Minister Warns Armenia About EAEU Membership Benefits and Gas Prices.” MassisPost. 31 Temmuz 2026. https://mass ispost.com/2026/07/russian-minister-warns-armenia-about-eaeu-membership-benefits-and-gas-prices/ .
135. Sassounian, Harut. “EU Signs Letters of Intent with Six Armenian Organizations.” Armenian Weekly. 14 Temmuz 2026. https://armenianweekly.com/2026/07/14/eu-signs-letters-of-intent-with-six-armenian-organizations/.
136. “SC-6, 13 Mayıs 2026, Dışişleri Bakanlığı Sözcüsü Öncü Keçeli’nin Ülkemiz ile Ermenistan Arasında Doğrudan Ticaretin Başlatılması Hakkındaki Soruya Cevabı.” Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Dışişleri Bakanlığı. 13 Mayıs 2026. https://www.mfa.gov.tr/sc_-6_-disisleri-bakanligi-sozcusu-oncu-keceli-nin-ulkemiz-ile-ermenistan-arasinda-dogrudan-ticaretin-baslatilmasi-hk-sc.tr.mfa.
137. “South Caucasus Discussed at Turkish National Security Council Meeting.” ArmenPress. 19 Haziran 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1253516.
138. Tekin, Esra. “Turkish President Erdogan, Armenian Premier Discuss Normalization Process.” Anadolu Ajansı. 2 Haziran 2026. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/turkish-president-erdogan-armenian-premier-discuss-normalization-process/3954628.
139. Teslova, Elena. “Armenian Government Resigns as Newly Elected Parliament Convenes for 1st Session.” Anadolu Ajansı. 2 Ağustos 2026. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/armenian-government-resigns-as-newly-elected-parliament-convenes-for-1st-session/4016124.
140. Teslova, Elena. “Armenian Premier Calls Movement for Karabakh’s Unification with Armenia 'Fatal Mistake'.” Anadolu Ajansı. 10 Mayıs 2026. https://m.aa.com.tr/en/eurasia/armenian-premier-calls-movement-for-karabakh-s-unification-with-armenia-fatal-mistake/3932924.
141. Teslova, Elena. “Armenian Parliament Elects Ruben Rubinyan as Speaker.” Anadolu Ajansı. 3 Ağustos 2026. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/eurasia/armenian-parliament-elects-ruben-rubinyan-as-speaker/4017155.
142. “The Meeting Between Prime Minister of Armenia and President of Azerbaijan Takes Place.” The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. 31 Ağustos 2026. https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2026/08/31/Nikol-Pashinyan-met-with-Ilham-Aliyev.
143. “The Members of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Strategic Expert Platform Issue Statement Outlining Next Steps.” Commonspace. 30 Eylül 2026. https://www.commonspace.eu/index.php/event/members-armenia-azerbaijan-strategic-expert-platform-issue-statement-outlining-next-steps.
144. “The Minister of Defense of the Republic of Armenia Suren Papikyan Met with the Minister of National Defense of the People's Republic of China.” Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Armenia. 15 Eylül 2026. https://www.mil.am/en/news/13437.
145. “The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia Received the Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Diplomacy of Iran.” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia. 30 Temmuz 2026. https://www.mfa.am/en/press-releases/2026/07/30/Mirzoyan_Ghanbari/14051.
146. “The Prime Minister Leaves for Germany on a Working Visit.” The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. 18 Eylül 2026. https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2026/09/18/Nikol-Pashinyan-Anons.
147. “‘Today’s Armenia Is an Expression of Our Christian Identity’: Prime Minister Attends Morning Session of Prayer Breakfast 2026 Forum.” ArmenPress. 3 Ekim 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1261927.
148. “TRIPP Project Also Serves Iran’s Interests, Pashinyan Says.” ArmenPress. 9 Temmuz 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1255161.
149. “Turkish FM Hails “Very Important” Steps Toward Normalization with Armenia.” ArmenPress. 18 Haziran 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1253371.
150. “Turkish FM Urges Regional Cooperation Over Ambitions of Dominance.” ArmenPress. 18 Haziran 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1253376.
151. “Turkish Minister Highlights Progress on Reopening Transport Links with Armenia.” ArmenPress. 23 Haziran 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1253799.
152. “Türkiye Supports Armenia–Azerbaijan Peace Process, Says Speaker.” ArmenPress. 24 Haziran 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1253899.
153. “Türkiye’den Ermenistan’a 1 Milyon 336 Bin Dolarlık İhracat Yapıldı.” Ermeni Haber Ajansı. 14 Eylül 2026. https://ermenihaber.am/economy/43706/.
154. “Türkiye’s Van Chamber of Commerce and Industry Ready to Host Representative Office for Armenia Ties.” ArmenPress. 3 Eylül 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1259567.
155. “UNGA81: Pashinyan Says Armenia-Türkiye Normalization ‘Resolutely Advancing’.” ArmenPress. 25 Eylül 2026. https://armenpress.am/en/article/1261309.
156. Vardanyan, Lusine, “European Parliament Backs Safe, Unimpeded, and Dignified Return of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians.” CivilNet. 30 Nisan 2026. https://civilnet.am/en/news/1011603.
157. “Yerevan Hosts Meeting of Armenia-Turkey Commissions on Joint Use of Akhuryan, Araks Rivers’ Waters.” News.am. 21 Mayıs 2026. https://news.am/en/news/1037131.
158. “WCC Expresses Deep Concern on Current Situation Affecting Armenian Apostolic Church.” World Council of Churches. 7 Ağustos 2026. https://www.oikoumene.org/news/wcc-expresses-deep-concern-on-current-situation-affecting-armenian-apostolic-church.
159. “Working Meeting Held Between Assistant to the President Hikmet Hajiyev and Armenia’s Secretary of the Security Council Armen Grigoryan.” Azerbaijan. 14 Haziran 2026. https://azerbaijan.az/en/news/19505.
160. “Հայաստանում ծնելիության ցուցանիշները շարունակում են նվազել. ԱՍՀ նախարար.” ArmenPress. 14 Temmuz 2026. https://armenpress.am/hy/article/1255514.
161. “8th Congress of New Azerbaijan Party Held.” President of the Republic of Azerbaijan. 2 Ekim 2026. https://president.az/en/articles/view/73619.