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Yıl 2023, Sayı: 74, 9 - 65, 28.11.2023

Alev Kılıç

Öz

Bu incelemede Haziran-Kasım 2023 tarihleri döneminde Ermenistan’daki iç gelişmeler, dış dinamikler, Azerbaycan’ın Karabağ üzerindeki egemenliğini sağlaması sonrası barış anlaşması sürecindeki gelişmeler ile Türkiye-Ermenistan arasındaki ilişkiler ve normalleşme sürecinin seyri ele alınmaktadır.
Dönem içinde Ermenistan’ın başlıca uğraşı ve kaygısı 44 günlük savaşı
sona erdiren 9 Kasım 2020 ateşkes anlaşmasını olabildiğince lehine çevirebilecek bir barış anlaşması arayışı içinde geçmiştir. Ateşkes anlaşmasının üçüncü tarafı ve uygulanmasının gözetimini üstlenen Rusya’nın Ukrayna savaşı nedeniyle bölgeye ilgisinin ve etkisinin zayıflaması, Batının ise Rusya’ya ikinci bir cephe açmak, Rusya’nın güney Kafkaslardaki nüfuzunu azaltmak üzere Ermenistan’ı yanına çekme girişimleri Ermenistan’da olumlu karşılık bulmuştur.
Esasen Batı yanlısı bir platformla yönetime gelen Başbakan Paşinyan Batının bu yaklaşımına, Rusya’yı karşısına almak pahasına, yeşil ışık yakmış, Azerbaycan ile barış anlaşması görüşmeleri, Moskova’nın ikinci plana düştüğü, Brüksel ve Vaşington odaklı yürütülmeye başlanmıştır. Batının başta dengeli olarak başlattığı bu süreç, doğası icabı ve muhtemelen Ermenistan’a bulunulan vaatlerden dolayı, Ermeni yanlısı bir çizgiye girince, Azerbaycan Batının girişimlerine tavır koymaya ve davetlerine katılmamaya başlamıştır.
Azerbaycan’ın 19 Eylül’de 24 saatlik bir askeri harekât ile Karabağ’daki ayrılıkçı yönetime son vermesi ve Karabağ’ın bütünü üzerinde egemenliğini tesis etmesi, Barış Anlaşması önündeki en büyük engeli ortadan kaldırmış ancak üç sorunlu konu, sınırların tespiti ve bunun bir alt başlığı olarak Ermenistan içindeki anklavlar, göç eden nüfusun karşılıklı olarak geri dönmeleri ve Zangezur ulaşım koridoru konusu gündemdeki yerini korumaya devam etmiştir. Ermenistan’ın Kasım ayında geliştirdiği “Barış Kavşakları” projesi ulaşım sorununun da çözülebileceği iyimserliği uyandırmıştır.
Türkiye ile ilişkiler barış anlaşması sürecindeki gelişmeye bağlı ve paralel olarak olumlu beklenti anlayışını sürdürmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Paşinyan, Mirzoyan, Grigoryan, Asriyan, Putin, Erdoğan, Lavrov, Fidan, Blinken, Michel, Karabağ, Zangezur koridoru, Barış kavşakları, UAD, CSTO.

Kaynakça

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• “President Khachaturyan Visits Italy, Meeting With Sergio Mattarella Expected”, ArmenPress, 24 Temmuz 2023, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1116016.html.
• “Press Remarks by President Charles Michel Following Trilateral Meeting with President Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister Pashinyan of Armenia”, European Council, 15 Temmuz 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/07/15/press-remarks-by-president-charles-michel-following-trilateral-meeting-with-president-aliyev-of-azerbaijan-and-prime-minister-pashinyan-of-armenia/ .
• “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and The President of the Republic of Iran Hold Telephone Conversation”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 9 Eylül 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2023/09/09/Nikol-Pashinyan-Telephone-Conversation-3/.
• “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Interview with the Wall Street Journal”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 25 Ekim 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/interviews-and-press-conferences/item/2023/10/25/Nikol-Pashinyan-Interview-The-Well-Street-Journal/.
• “Prime Minister Pashinyan Holds Telephone Conversation with President of Iran Ebrahim Raisi”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 26 Haziran 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2023/06/26/Nikol-Pashinyan-Telephone-Conversation/.
• “Prime Minister Pashinyan Meets with President Khachaturyan”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 29 Mayıs 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2023/05/29/Nikol-Pashinyan-met-with-Vahagn-Khachaturyan/.
• “Prime Minister Pashinyan Presents the "Crossroads of Peace” Project and Its Principles at the Tbilisi International Forum”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 26 Ekim 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/statements-and-messages/item/2023/10/26/Nikol-Pashinyan-Speech/.
• “Prime Minister Pashinyan Received the Special Representative of NATO Secretary General Javier Colomina”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 23 Mayıs 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2023/05/23/Nikol-Pashinyan-meeting./.
• “Prime Minister Pashinyan Receives the Medal Awarded by Pope Francis”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 24 Ekim 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2023/10/24/Nikol-Pashinyan-meeting/.
• “Proposal to Sign an Agreement on Status of EU Mission in Armenia Approved”, First Channel News, 31 Ağustos 2023, https://www.1lurer.am/en/2023/08/31/Proposal-to-sign-an-agreement-on-status-of-EU-mission-in-Armenia-approved/987018.
• “Putin Hosts Fresh Talks Between Pashinian, Aliyev,” Azatutyun, 26 Mayıs 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32428164.html.
• “Remarks by President Charles Michel after his Meeting with the Leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, France and Germany”, European Council Council of the European Union, 1 Haziran 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/06/01/remarks-by-president-charles-michel-after-his-meeting-with-the-leaders-of-armenia-azerbaijan-france-and-germany/
• Robert Zargarian, “Armenian Task Force To Explore Nuclear Plant Options”, Azatutyun, 8 Haziran 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32450621.html.
• “Ruben Rubinyan Receives Political Director for Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia of MFA of Germany”, Lurer, 17 Temmuz 2023, https://www.1lurer.am/en/2023/07/17/Ruben-Rubinyan-Receives-Political-Director-for-Eastern-Europe-Caucasus-and-Central-Asia-of-MFA-of-G/963691.
• “Rubinyan Presented the Process of Regulating Armenia-Turkey Relations”, Radar Armenia, 13 Temmuz 2023, https://radar.am/en/news/politics-2578510420/.
• “Russia Again Blames Pashinian for Karabakh Crisis”, Azatutyun, 12 Eylül 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32589437.html.
• “Russia Calls Pashinian's Criticism of Moscow over Situation in Nagorno-Karabakh 'Unacceptable'”,Radio Free Europe, 25 Eylül 2023, https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-armenia-azerbaijan-pashinian-criticism/32608635.html.
• “Russia Cannot 'Turn Back on' South Caucasus Region, No Such Plans Envisioned — Kremlin”, TASS, 5 Eylül 2023, https://tass.com/politics/1670081.
• “Russia Strongly Urges Azerbaijan to Unblock the Lachin Corridor”, Armenpress, 15 Temmuz 2023, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1115533.html.
• “Russia Wants Armenia to Explain Ratification of ICC Rome Statute — Diplomat”, TASS, 5 Eylül 2023, https://tass.com/politics/1670155.
• “Russian MFA Rejects Accusations against Russian Peacekeepers over Lachin Corridor”, TASS, 30 Ağustos 2023, https://tass.com/politics/1667621.
• “Secretary of Security Council and Secretary of Supreme National Security Council of Iran had Telephone Conversation”, Lurer, 13 Kasım 2023, https://www.1lurer.am/en/2023/11/13/Secretary-of-Security-Council-and-Secretary-of-Supreme-National-Security-Council-of-Iran-had-teleph/1029269.
• Siranush Ghazanchyan, “Azerbaijan Accuses US of Bias, Refuses to Participate in a Meeting with Armenian FM in Washington”, Public Radio of Armenia, 16 Kasım 2023, https://en.armradio.am/2023/11/16/azerbaijan-accuses-us-of-bias-refuses-to-participate-in-a-meeting-with-armenian-fm/.
• Siranush Ghazanchyan, “Head of US Sanctions Coordination Office, Ambassador James C. O’Brien Visits Armenia”, Public Radio of Armenia, 29 Haziran 2023, https://en.armradio.am/2023/06/29/head-of-us-sanctions-coordination-office-ambassador-james-c-obrien-visits-armenia/.
• Siranush Ghazanchyan, “New Round of Talks Postponed at the Request of Azerbaijan – Armenia MFA”, Public Radio of Armenia, 8 Haziran 2023, https://en.armradio.am/2023/06/08/new-round-of-talks-postponed-at-the-request-of-azerbaijani-sidd-armenia-mfa/.
• “Special Forces of Armenia, Greece and Cyprus Hold Joint Drills”, ArmenPress, 13 Kasım 2023, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1124037.html.
• “Speech by RA NA President at Autumn Meeting of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly”, Lurer, 18 Kasım 2023, https://www.1lurer.am/en/2023/11/18/Speech-by-RA-NA-President-at-Autumn-Meeting-of-the-OSCE-Parliamentary-Assembly/1032628.
• “Statement by Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense”, mod.gov, 19 Eylül 2023, https://mod.gov.az/en/news/statement-by-azerbaijan-s-ministry-of-defense-49350.html.
• “Statement by the Spokesperson of Charles Michel, President of the European Council, Regarding Armenia and Azerbaijan”, European Council, 1 Eylül 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/09/01/statement-by-the-spokesperson-of-charles-michel-president-of-the-european-council-regarding-armenia-and-azerbaijan/.
• “The Delegation Led by Alen Simonyan Leaves for Paris”, ArmenPress, 10 Temmuz 2023, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1115084.html.
• “The Karabakh "Parliament" also Issued a Call to the United Nations Member States on July 27, Asking for Its Independence to be Recognized within the Scope of the Principle of the Right to Compensatory Secession”, Hetq, 27Temmuz 2023, https://hetq.am/en/article/158507.
• “The Meeting between the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia and the UK Minister for Europe”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia, 13 Kasım 2023, https://www.mfa.am/en/press-releases/2023/11/13/GB_Mirzoyan/12322.
• “The Prime Minister Received the Governor of Kansas and the Commander of the National Guard”, Radar Armenia, June 22, 2023, https://radar.am/en/news/politics-2574825954/
• “The Prime Minister Will Leave for Georgia on a Working Visit”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 7 Temmuz 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2023/07/07/Nikol-Pashinyan-visit-to-Georgia/.
• Tigran Hovsepian, “French Aid Convoy Barred From Entering Karabakh”, Azatutyun, 20 Ağustos 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32571631.html.
• “U.S. Looks Forward to Rescheduling Postponed Armenia-Azerbaijan Talks in Washington”, Armenpress, 14 Haziran 2023, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1113208/.
• “UN Team Completes Mission to Karabakh”,United Nations Azerbaijan, 2 Ekim 2023, https://azerbaijan.un.org/en/248051-un-team-completes-mission-karabakh.
• “US Completes Joint Military Exercise in Armenia”, Aljazeera, 20 Eylül 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/20/us-completes-joint-military-exercise-in-armenia.
• “US Envoy Again Visits Armenia, Azerbaijan,” Mirror Spectator, 1 Haziran 2023, https://mirrorspectator.com/2023/06/01/us-envoy-again-visits-armenia-azerbaijan/.
• “Vladimir Putin Meets with Members of the Valdai Discussion Club. Transcript of the Plenary Session of the 20th Annual Meeting”, Valdai Discussion Club, 5 Ekim 2023, https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/vladimir-putin-meets-with-members-of-the-valdai-club-transcript-2023/.
• Yavuz Aydın, “Paşinyan, Karabağ'ı da İçeren Azerbaycan'ın Toprak Bütünlüğünü Tanımaya Hazır Olduğunu Söyledi”, Anadolu Ajansı, 22 Mayıs 2023, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/pasinyan-karabagi-da-iceren-azerbaycanin-toprak-butunlugunu-tanimaya-hazir-oldugunu-soyledi/2903473.
• “Washington Reaffirms Support for Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks”, Azatutyun, 17 Kasım 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32688496.html.
• “Armenia Cannot Decide Nagorno-Karabakh People's Fate, Representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh Should be a Party to Negotiations, Pashinyan”, First Channel News, 25 Temmuz 2023, https://www.1lurer.am/en/2023/07/25/Armenia-cannot-decide-Nagorno-Karabakh-people-s-fate-representatives-of-Nagorno-Karabakh-should-be/967329.
• “Ankara Urges Yerevan ‘Not to Fall for Provocations”, Hürriyet Daily News, 27 Eylül 2023, https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/we-will-provide-technological-device-support-to-university-students-erdogan-186590
• Artak Khulian, “Former Armenian Defense Chief To Remain In Jail”, Azatutyun, 30 Ağustos 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32571274.html .
• Astghik Bedevian, “Armenian Opposition Signals Protests Against ‘Karabakh’s Surrender’”, Azatutyun, 22 Mayıs 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32424296.html.
• “Baku Steps Up Claims on 8 Armenian Villages ‘Occupied By Armenia’”, Asbarez, 11 Ekim 2023, https://asbarez.com/baku-steps-up-claims-on-8-armenian-village-occupied-by-armenia/.
• Siranush Ghazanchyan, “Armenian PM, Head of US Department of State’s Sanctions Coordination Office Discuss Regional and İnternational Processes”, Public Radio of Armenia, 29 Haziran 2023, https://en.armradio.am/2023/06/29/armenian-pm-head-of-us-department-of-states-sanctions-coordination-office-discuss-regional-and-international-processes/.