FACTS AND COMMENTS

Yıl 2024, Sayı: 75, 9 - 59, 24.05.2024

Alev Kılıç

https://doi.org/10.36542/erma.1490592

Öz

This article covers the period of November 2023-May 2024 of the internal developments in Armenia, the foreign dynamics shaping the international relations of Armenia, the ongoing process of signing the Peace Agreement with Azebaijan and the bilateral relations of Turkiye and Armenia in the light of the process of normalisation of their relations.
The period under review has been a time frame where acts have been put into motion that can be qualified as a breaking or turning point both internally and externally. The Nikol Pashinyan administration has undertaken some courageous and risky steps, breaking with established taboos.
With a view to overcoming past bigoted concepts, the initiatives encouraged or condoned by the Pashinyan administration to make changes or amends in the Constitution, national hymn and symbols, school curriculum, and genocide narrative, which help cement the past and cause rupture with the present, has led to reactions. Internal reactions have come from partisans of the former government, extreme nationalists and most importantly the Church, while external reactions have come from the militant organizations of the Diaspora who perceive their survival and livelihood in provoking radical and militant nationalism, and third party states wishing to use this as a vehicle to put political pressure on Türkiye. On the other hand, Christian fundamentalism
that appeared in the West has endeavored to project Armenians as a symbol of Christian solidarity, thus to base assistance to Armenia on ideological grounds.
Some states, allowing the tail to wag the dog, have seen political advantages in fulfilling these initiatives and demands.
Following the termination of the occupation of Karabakh, the major obstacle to achieving a lasting peace with Azerbaijan has been removed, limiting the issues for negotiations to border demarcation and transport connections and facilities.
Distancing itself from Russia to align with the West as Russia was not in a position to open a second front as the war with Ukraine was going on, Armenia has come to realize the necessity to normalize its relations with Türkiye, the neighbor to provide its connections with the West. Türkiye had been sincerely supporting the process of normalization of relations from early on. However,
Türkiye has considered this in a regional perspective, to coincide with the normalization of Armenia’s relations with Azerbaijan, within the regional stability with Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Pashinyan, Mirzoyan, Putin, Lavrov, Blinken, Fidan, Macron, Raisi, Karekin II, Dashnaksutyun (ARF), Zangezur corridor, CSTO, EAEU, NATO, Erdoğan

Olaylar ve Yorumlar

Öz

Bu incelemede Kasım 2023-Mayıs 2024 tarihleri döneminde Ermenistan’daki iç gelişmeler, dış dinamikler, Azerbaycan ile Barış Anlaşması sürecindeki gelişmeler ile Türkiye-Ermenistan arasındaki ilişkiler ve normalleşme sürecinin seyri ele alınmaktadır.
Dönem Ermenistan’ın gerek iç, gerek dış politikası bakımından kırılma noktası veya dönüm noktası sayılabilecek bir hareketliliğin yaşandığı bir zaman dilimi olmuştur. Nikol Paşinyan yönetimi yerleşik bazı tabuları yıkma yönünde cesaretli ve riskli başlangıçlar yapmıştır.
Paşinyan yönetiminin geçmişin bağnazlıklarından kurtulmak üzere; geçmişe kilitlenmeye neden olan ve günümüz gerçeklerine ters düşen Anayasada, ulusal amblemde, milli marşta, okul müfredatında ve soykırım iddiasında değişiklik yapma girişimleri olmuştur. Bu girişimler içte eski rejim yanlılarını, aşırı milliyetçileri ve en önemlisi Kiliseyi; dışta ise, varlıklarını ve geçim kaynaklarını aşırı milliyetçiliği körüklemekte gören militan Ermeni diaspora örgütlerini ve bunu Türkiye üzerinde siyasi baskı aracı olarak kullanabilmeyi düşünen üçüncü devletleri harekete geçirmiştir. Ayrıca, Batı’da gündeme gelen kökten dinci Hristiyanlık akımı, Ermenileri Hristiyan dayanışmasının sembolü haline getirmeye ve Ermenistan’a yardımı ideolojik bir çerçeveye oturtmaya çalışmıştır. Bazı ülkeler, kuyruğun başı yönlendirmesine olanak sağlayan bir zafiyet içinde, bu girişim ve taleplere boyun eğmeyi siyasi kazanım tercihi olarak görebilmiştir.
Karabağ işgalinin bütünüyle sona erdirilmesiyle Azerbaycan ile kalıcı bir barışın önündeki en büyük engel kalkmış, müzakere konuları sınır tespiti ve ulaşım bağlantı ve kolaylıklarına odaklanmıştır.
Ermenistan’ın Ukrayna Savaşı nedeniyle ikinci bir cephede mücadeleyi göze alamayan Rusya’dan uzaklaşma olanağı bulması ve Batı yanlısı bir çizgiye geçmesi, Batı ile bağlantısını oluşturan komşusu Türkiye ile ilişkilerini normalleştirme gereğini ortaya koymuştur. Türkiye normalleşme sürecini esasen baştan beri samimiyetle desteklemiştir. Bununla beraber, Türkiye bunu bölgesel bir çerçevede göre gelmiş, Ermenistan’ın Azerbaycan ile ilişkilerinin de eş zamanlı normalleşmesinde, Gürcistan-Ermenistan-Azerbaycan bölgesel istikrarında değerlendirmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Mirzoyan, Putin, Lavrov, Blinken, Erdoğan, Fidan, Macron, Reisi, II. Karekin, Daşnaksutyun (EDF), Zangezur koridoru, KGAÖ, AEB, NATO, Paşinyan

Kaynakça

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• “Debt Estimated at 48,4% of GDP”, ArmenPress, 31 Ocak 2024, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1129239/.
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• Elena Teslalova, “Azerbaijan, Armenia End Talks in Kazakhstan with Pledge to Continue Discussing Controversial Issues”, Anadolu Agency, 11 Mayıs 2024, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/azerbaijan-armenia-end-talks-in-kazakhstan-with-pledge-to-continue-discussing-controversial-issues/3216657.
• Elena Teslova, “Russia Calls NATO Chief's Visit to Caucasus 'Attempt to Expand Alliance's Presence in Region'”, Anadolu Agency, 19 Mart 2023, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/russia-calls-nato-chiefs-visit-to-caucasus-attempt-to-expand-alliances-presence-in-region/3168775.
• “Erdogan Urges Azerbaijan Leader To Avoid Armenia Tensions”, Ahram Online, 19 Şubat 2024, https://english.ahram.org.eg/News/518016.aspx .
• “Ermenistan-AB-ABD Toplantısına Azerbaycan, Rusya ve Türkiye'den Tepki”, 6 Nisan 2024, Artı Gerçek, https://artigercek.com/dunya/ermenistan-ab-abd-toplantisina-azerbaycan-rusya-ve-turkiyeden-tepki-300044h.
• “Foreign Minister Mirzoyan is Paying an Official Visit to Argentina on March 25-26”, ArmenPress, 25 Mart 2024, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1133168.html .
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• “Germany to Provide €84,6 Million in Aid to Armenia”, ArmenPress, 22 Kasım 2023, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1124684/.
• “Gevorg Papoyan Appointed Armenian Economy Minister”, ArmenPress, 5 Mart 2024, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1131752.html.
• Heghine Buniatian, “EU Set To Provide Non-Lethal Assistance To Armenia”, Azatutyun, 17 Nisan 2024, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32909510.html.
• Heydar Isayev, “Armenia, Azerbaijan Issue Landmark Joint Statement”, Eurasianet, 8 Aralık 2023, https://eurasianet.org/armenia-azerbaijan-issue-landmark-joint-statement.
• Hoory Minoyan, “Armenian Foreign Minister Expresses Concerns Over Azerbaijani Reversal in Peace Talks”, The Armenian Weekly, 24 Ocak 2024, https://armenianweekly.com/2024/01/24/armenian-foreign-minister-expresses-concerns-over-azerbaijani-reversal-in-peace-talks/.
• Hoory Minoyan, “Turkey And Azerbaijan Announce Plans to Complete “Zangezur Corridor””, The Armenian Weekly, 10 Ocak 2024, https://armenianweekly.com/2024/01/10/turkey-and-azerbaijan-announce-plans-to-complete-zangezur-corridor/.
• “Iran Ready to Help ‘Strengthen’ Armenia, Says Envoy”, Azatutyun, 6 Şubat 2024, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32807979.html.
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• Karine Simonian, “Armenian Border Protesters March Toward Yerevan”, Radio Free Europe, 5 Mart 2024, https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-border-protest-yerevan-kirants-galstanian/32934139.html.
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• “Moscow Sees ‘Camouflaged’ Efforts by Yerevan to Change Foreign-Policy Vector”, Azatutyun, 22 Kasım 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32695587.html.
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• “No: 67, 20 Nisan 2024, Azerbaycan-Ermenistan Sınır Delimitasyon Komisyonu Tarafından Varılan Uzlaşma Hk.”, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Dışişleri Bakanlığı, 20 Nisan 2024, https://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-67_-azerbaycan-ermenistan-sinir-delimitasyon-komisyonu-tarafindan-varilan-uzlasma-hk.tr.mfa.
• “No: 68, 24 Nisan 2024, Bazı Ülkelerin Yetkililerince Yapılan Beyanlar Hk.”, T.C. Dışişleri Bakanlığı, 24 Nisan 2024, https://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-68_-bazi-ulkelerin-yetkililerince-yapilan-beyanlar-hk.tr.mfa .
• “No: 71, 25 Nisan 2024, Şili Temsilciler Meclisinin 1915 Olaylarına İlişkin Kararı Hk.”, T.C. Dışişleri Bakanlığı, 25 Nisan 2024, https://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-71_-sili-temsilciler-meclisinin-1915-olaylarina-iliskin-karari-hk.tr.mfa .
• “No: 311, 8 Aralık 2023, Azerbaycan ile Ermenistan Arasında Bazı Somut Güven Artırıcı Adımların Atılması Kararı Hk.“, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Dışişleri Bakanlığı, 8 Aralık 2023, https://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-311_-azerbaycan-ile-ermenistan-arasinda-bazi-somut-guven-artirici-adimlarin-atilmasi-karari-hk.tr.mfa.
• “Pashinian Again Criticizes Armenia’s Independence Declaration”, Azatutyun, 1 Şubat 2024, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32801656.html.
• “Pashinyan Criticizes Armenia’s 1990 Declaration of Independence”, Oragark,23 Ağustos 2023, https://www.oragark.com/pashinyan-criticizes-armenias-1990-declaration-of-independence/.
• “Pashinyan in Kazakhstan to Chair Eurasian Intergovernmental Council Meeting”, Hetq.am, 2 Şubat 2024, https://hetq.am/en/article/163945 .
• “Pashinyan Refers To Turkey's Possible Involvement in Armenian-Azerbaijani Settlement”, ArmenPress, 12 Mart 2024, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1132270.html .
• “Pashinyan to Meet Von der Leyen and Blinken in Brussels”, ArmenPress, 21 Mart 2024, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1132886/ .
• “Pashinyan: Armenia Ready to Cede 4 Border Villages to ‘Prevent War’ With Azerbaijan”,Civilnet, 19 Mart 2024, https://www.civilnet.am/en/news/768431/pashinyan-armenia-ready-to-cede-4-border-villages-to-prevent-war-with-azerbaijan/.
• “Pashinyan: Armenia, Azerbaijan Speak ‘Different Diplomatic Languages’”, MassisPost, 20 Kasım 2023, https://massispost.com/2023/11/pashinyan-armenia-azerbaijan-speak-different-diplomatic-languages/.
• “Pashinyan: I Attended Erdogan's Inauguration Because I Received Invitation, But I Didn’t Get One From Putin”, News.am, 7 Mayıs 2024, https://news.am/eng/news/821924.html .
• “Peace Process Not the Focus of Upcoming Armenia-EU-U.S. Meeting - State Department Spokesperson”, ArmenPress, 2 Nisan 2024, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1133790.html .
• “President Khachaturyan Considers his Visit to Hungary Historic”, ArmenPress, 6 Şubat 2024, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1129710/ .
• “President of the European Council Charles Michel Made a Phone Call to Ilham Aliyev”, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, 7 Ekim 2023, https://president.az/en/articles/view/61511.
• “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Speech at the National Assembly during the Discussion of the Implementation of the Government Action Plan (2021-26) for the year of 2023”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 10 Nisan 2024, https://www.primeminister.am/en/statements-and-messages/item/2024/04/10/Nikol-Pashinyan-Speech/.
• “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Working Visit to St. Petersburg”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 26 Aralık 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/foreign-visits/item/2023/12/25/Nikol-Pashinyan-visit-to-Saint-Petersburg/.
• “Prime Minister Pashinyan Receives the Delegation Led by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Cyprus”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 7 Mart 2024, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2024/03/07/Nikol-Pashinyan-meeting-07-03/ .
• “Principles agreed upon between Armenia and Azerbaijan until present should not be changed, says Javier Colomina”, ArmenPress, 31 Ocak 2024, https://www.armenpress.am/eng/news/1129201/.
• “Principles Agreed Upon Between Armenia and Azerbaijan Until Present Should Not Be Changed, Says Javier Colomina”, ArmenPress, 31 Ocak 2024, https://www.armenpress.am/eng/news/1129201/ .
• Robert Zargarian, “Private Remittances To Armenia Dwindle In 2023”, Azatutyun, 24 Kasım 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32697880.html.
• Ruslan Rehimov,“Armenia Agrees to Return 4 Occupied Villages to Azerbaijan”, Anadolu Agency, 19 Nisan 2024,https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/armenia-agrees-to-return-4-occupied-villages-to-azerbaijan/3196895.
• Ruzanna Stepanian, “Pashinian Ally Says Remarks on ‘Listing’ Genocide Victims His ‘Personal Approach’”, Azatutyun, 16 Nisan 2024, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32907554.html.
• “Russian Foreign Ministry: Armenia should not Trust “Western friends””, Xalqqazeti, 6 Aralık 2023, https://xalqqazeti.az/en/maraqli/152130-russian-foreign-ministry-armenia-should.
• Seda Sevencen, Emre Gürkan Abay, “Azerbaijan Refuses to Take Part in Peace Talks with Armenia in US”, Anadolu Agency, 17 Kasım 2023, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/azerbaijan-refuses-to-take-part-in-peace-talks-with-armenia-in-us/3056045.
• Shoghik Galstian, “Armenian Church Head’s New Year Address Not Aired By State TV”, Azatutyun, 2 Ocak 2024, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32756257.html.
• Shoghik Galstian, “Pashinian Buoyed by EU Parliament Resolution”, Azatutyun, 14 Mart 2024, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32861745.html .
• Siranush Ghazanchyan, “Armenia Sends 6th Proposal to the Azerbaijani Side Regarding the Peace Treaty”, Public Radio of Armenia, 21 Kasım 2023, https://en.armradio.am/2023/11/21/armenia-sends-6th-proposal-to-the-azerbaijani-side-regarding-the-peace-treaty/.
• Siranush Ghazanchyan, “Crossroads of Peace Project to Expand Access to The Sea for Both Armenia and Azerbaijan – PM Pashinyan”, Public Radio of Armenia, 14 Aralık 2024, https://en.armradio.am/2023/12/14/armenias-crossroads-of-peace-project-to-expand-access-to-the-sea-for-both-armenia-and-azerbaijan-pm-pashinyan/.
• Siranush Ghazanchyan, “Fifth Meeting of the EU-Armenia Partnership Council to Take Place in Brussels”, Public Radio of Armenia, 9 Şubat 2024, https://en.armradio.am/2024/02/09/fifth-meeting-of-the-eu-armenia-partnership-council-to-take-place-in-brussels/ .
• “Secretary General Starts South Caucasus Visit in Baku, Welcomes NATO’s Long-Standing Partnership with Azerbaijan”, NATO, 17 Mart 2024, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_223720.htm.
• “Security Council Secretary, U.S. Senior Advisor for Caucasus Negotiations discuss Armenia- Azerbaijan Normalization”, ArmenPress, 8 Ocak 2024, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1127537.html.
• “Statement by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia Ararat Mirzoyan at the 30th OSCE Ministerial Council”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia, 30 Kasım 2024, https://www.mfa.am/en/speeches/2023/11/30/Mirzoyan_speech/12375 .
• “Şili Temsilciler Meclisi, 24 Nisan’ı Ermeni Soykırımı Kurbanlarının Anma Günü Olarak İlan Etti”, Ermeni Haber Ajansı, 25 Nisan 2024, https://www.ermenihaber.am/tr/news/2024/04/25/%C5%9Eili-Ermeni-Soyk%C4%B1r%C4%B1m%C4%B1/273767 .
• “The Prime Minister Leaves for the Kingdom of Denmark on a Working Visit”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 13 Mayıs 2024, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2024/05/13/Anons/ .
• “Top Aide to Iran’s Khamenei Visits Armenia”, Azatutyun, 29 Ocak 2024, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32796805.html.
• “Tripartite Meeting between Nikol Pashinyan, Olaf Scholz and Ilham Aliyev Takes Place in Munich”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 17 Şubat 2024, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2024/02/17/Nikol-Pashinyan-trilateral-meeting/.
• “Turkey Continues To Demand Armenian ‘Corridor’ For Azerbaijan”, Azatutyun, 15 Mart 2024, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32863071.html .
• “US Trying to Spread Tentacles Into All CIS Regions, Commonwealth States See This — Lavrov”, TASS, 12 Nisan 2024, https://tass.com/politics/1774387 .
• Yavuz Aydın, “Paşinyan'ın 1915 Olaylarına İlişkin Sözleri Ermenistan'da Gündem Oldu”, Anadolu Ajansı, 15 Nisan 2024, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/pasinyanin-1915-olaylarina-iliskin-sozleri-ermenistanda-gundem-oldu/3192305 .
• “We Must Have a Constitution that Makes the Republic of Armenia More Competitive and Viable in the New Geopolitical Conditions. Prime Minister”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 19 Ocak 2024, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2024/01/19/Nikol-Pashinyan-Report-Ministry-of-Justice/.
• “West Accused Of ‘Trying To Undermine’ Agreements On South Caucasus Stability”, Azatutyun, 12 Nisan 2024, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32902900.html.
• “Պոլսի Հայոց Պատրիարքը ժամանեց Մայր Աթոռ Սուրբ Էջմիածին. Նա կմասնակցի Գերագույն հոգևոր խորհրդի ժողովին”, News.am, 20 Şubat 2024, https://news.am/arm/news/808376.html.